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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Any predictions on the next set to sell out? As a collector, I was interested in the Maersk Line Container Ship, but missed it. TLG always kills sets this time of year and it would be great to have a heads-up on what people are thinking...
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Comments

  • Thanks Eric...I figured there had to be a posting out there on this, but couldn't find it. The posts at this link do seem to be somewhat dated, but the conversation is certainly interesting.

    Lego typically EOLs (end-of-lifes) products in conjunction with their Black Friday sales. It is by far the best time to pick up the expensive sets. I do find it hard to believe that Lego would tell anyone on the phone what their obsolescence plan is. That would be a poor business practice in my mind...
  • the writing seems to be on the wall for Fire Brigade. TRU has pulled it off their site completely, my local LEGO store has been out for several weeks, and the manager told me they haven't been getting any in their weekly shipments, and no more are coming in next week either.

    i don't expect it to last the season.
  • I still see Fire Brigade on TRU web site, but it is out of stock for shipping. Lego still has it in stock for shipment. Nothing stops Lego from making another 50,000 of them.

    Hard to tell, if it is selling well, why stop it?
  • it's weird on TRU - shows up in some drilldowns/filters, but not others, and something definately changed in the way they catalog it on their site about a month ago. It also briefly disappeared from S&H completely a few weeks back, and then resurfaced.

    It's always hard to tell of course, but I think it's as good a bet as any for next major/exclusive set to go.
  • Hard to tell, if it is selling well, why stop it?
    True, but maybe it sells 500 per week (good) but a new modular set might sell 1000 per week (better).

    If manufacturing and inventory management resources had to be allocated, it might make sense to suspend a "stale" set in favour of a new one taking its place, both for higher profit and to keep the market fresh.

    Or perhaps I'm being wishful for the next modular! And no cheesy writing - "PETS" - on the next one, please.
  • So what do we all want for the next modular set? I suppose if we are going to get a new one each year, what will 2012 bring?

    I've built 10197, have GE and PS sitting in the closet, waiting for a rainy day, but I will say that the build differences and detail of the modular sets is much higher than the "kids" sets, for not that much more money, and a lot less per part.

    Compare 10197 to 7208:

    Ok, granted, completely different markets, but 10197 is 6.7 cents per part compared to 7208 being 12.1 cents per part. That is almost half the price. My kids have 7208 built, and they do play with it, and they think it is cool, and of course I didn't pay retail for it, but still, they could have done so much more with it. I would think the kids set sells much higher volumes than the adult set, so you'd think they would be able to include more at the same price.

    Or perhaps the actual cost of production is minor, and they are just getting as much profit per set as they think the market will support, regardless of the "value" of each set.

    ???

  • the rumor on the next modular is a town hall.
  • It would be nice if the next modular was a "corner", like GE and CC.

    I missed out on CC and I'm of course not going to spend $1K plus to get it, so it would be nice to have a second one to "end cap" the current build.
  • Here are my predictions for the end of this year:

    SW Hoth Cave
    Fire Brigade
    SSW Battle of Endor
    SW Republican Dropship
    SW Tantative IV
    All Toy Story Sets
    Emerald Night
    Winter Village Toy Shop

    And my wildcard is: SW Deathstar (mainly because it might drive business to the other large SW set...the Super Star Destroyer.
  • ^^ I think we've got another inside modular first, then a corner. I'm betting on a 1-2-1-2-1 pattern, and we had a recent corner in GE
  • Hard to tell, if it is selling well, why stop it?


    True, but maybe it sells 500 per week (good) but a new modular set might sell 1000 per week (better).

    If manufacturing and inventory management resources had to be allocated, it might make sense to suspend a "stale" set in favour of a new one taking its place, both for higher profit and to keep the market fresh.

    Or perhaps I'm being wishful for the next modular! And no cheesy writing - "PETS" - on the next one, please.
    I think we have had this debate before in other threads.
    Mainly like @Ravenhook says, it is a balance sheet, 1000 more per month works better than 500 per month
    I am guessing LEGO has relatively limited resources to build x amount of sets per year and therefore wants to maximize their lines to make the most money with what they have.
    What is viewed as a 'sought after' set LEGO sees an actual balance sheet on, and probably sees demand for the set go down after time and why keep making sets until only 50 people want them when you could be devoting time and resources on a new line that will make you double what you put into it.That and I think the other reason is to keep the lines 'fresh' as well.
    As it stands it seems on the surface LEGO has made more of a given line, but normally once a line is done it is done. The Maersk stuff is an exception as the Maersk company is probably the main requester for the ships to be out there (great marketing tool) BUT I also notice Maersk is not asking for a redo of the 80's Minifig Maersk sets either, which are REALLY sought after!

    I think Fire Brigade has lasted this long as well because, contrary to popular belief, I do not think it is a sought after set. It is a fire house, and many people do not want to spend 150 dollars on a fire house. As a result there have been more available.. What you are seeing for the most part, especially now, is speculation buying.

    My guess is LEGO has a number of sets planned when they build and them build them and then that is it.. with maybe a couple of exceptions where the extended a line (SW does this, but again I think that is because of a more "Lucas Company wants it, AND they'll pay for a set line to continue' type of attitude)

    ...and maybe, after all, we have it wrong and LEGO does care about a secondary market, which can fuel the new purchases of LEGO, and therefore wants to have limited sets, you have to admin.. if you collect the Mods you feel the need to purchase every one.

    Although the Pet Shop is a hard sell for me as it seems a bit tiny...
    Since I have accrued a large amount of VIP points I am thinking about cashing in on a Pet shop now...
  • edited October 2011
    Here are my predictions for the end of this year:

    SW Hoth Cave
    Fire Brigade
    SSW Battle of Endor
    SW Republican Dropship
    SW Tantative IV
    All Toy Story Sets
    Emerald Night
    Winter Village Toy Shop

    And my wildcard is: SW Deathstar (mainly because it might drive business to the other large SW set...the Super Star Destroyer.
    I think you forgot
    10193 Medieval Market Village

    The Winter Toy Shoppe will be interesting.. twice now people have thought it gone only to arrive back in time for the holidays
    But you are correct it is a bit old now.
    But IMO the Wild card is really the SW Battle of Endor, after all they extended that set after it was discontinued so that may be around for another year still..

    I think the LEGO Death Star is done this year to be honest, the main thing driving sales for it are speculators right now... I know Target and Walmart have it now as well, but I think this is the 'final charge', if you will, of the LEGO Death Star.. Especially since Lego seems to be keen on 'Price slots' of sets (number of sets that are 150, 180, 400 dollars, etc)
    I'm guessing they will have a few for an inevitable SW or LEGO Black Friday sale, but then they will probably be gone.

    The only good news about if there are any Fire Brigades by BF then maybe those go on sale at LEGO.com as well....
  • edited October 2011
    This might be old news but I noticed the King's castle and some other Kingdom sets were sold out at Lego S@H
  • ^ MMV has been removed from S@H. Haha, Thank you MCN. :D
  • Fire Brigade, Emerald Night, Medievel Market Village and Death Star are definitely going, in my opinion. Imperial Flagship is a toss-up, I think it might stay one more year, but that's just my opinion.
  • MMV shows up when you type in 10193 in the search box from S@H, but it doesn't appear in the browse list.

    Fire Brigade did that as well a few weeks ago, but is back in the list.

    The Kings Castle is sold out there, who knows what that means?

    It would be funny if someone at Lego is reading these forums, laughing their head off as we try and figure it all out.
  • How much was the medievel village?
  • edited October 2011
    ^---- $99.99 USD but you can sometimes find them in stores (like Walmart.com and Amazon.com) for 89.99.

    ^^--- I doubt it, I think it is more likely that LEGO's online team is just inadvertently listing things in stock out of stock.. Im guessing they must have multiple warehouses or something so one shows out of stock, then they find more in another warehouse or something....
    The test, like @LegoFanTexas says, is does it stay out of stock... If it is out of stock for about 1-2 weeks then it is probably gone... also if the set has been out for a while then it is gone (or if there is talk of another castle set coming out)....


  • MMV is currently 10% off at $89.96 and with free shipping on Amazon.com :

    MMV at Amazon.com

    Enjoy - it's a cracker !
  • Kings Castle is now marked as sold out on Lego.com and it is out of stock at Amazon as well. Not too high yet, $111 with free shipping from a FBA seller.

    Anyone think that set will go up, or will it just get replaced by another castle? I have one that I bought two months ago, intending to build, but it is in the back of my stack behind about 20 other sets, so if it ends up being $200 by next summer, I'd be hard pressed to open the box. :)
  • My only reason for excluding the MMV is its popularity. Even my wife likes that set. Yes, it could be discontinued (based on years); however, you don't put a prized stallion out to pasture as they say.
  • edited October 2011
    I just purchased the Kings Castle for $85 at Amazon a couple weeks ago. I think it's the perfect complement to the MMV. I was going to get another one for my son's B-day, but the price had already gone up. I opted for the City Police Station as he is really into the good guy-bad guy thing.

    As a fan of Lego, I love this time of year!!!
  • I took a good hard look at King's Castle, but couldn't convince myself that I like it. The problem I have with non-raised-baseplate castles is that they don't feel very intimidating. It looks as if an invading minifig could jump up and grab the top of the wall sections. Just doesn't feel very fortress-y to me.

    Anyway, if being on sale for $73 on Amazon a couple weeks ago wasn't enough to convince me to grab it, I guess nothing will.
  • Kings Castle is now marked as sold out on Lego.com and it is out of stock at Amazon as well. Not too high yet, $111 with free shipping from a FBA seller.

    Anyone think that set will go up, or will it just get replaced by another castle? I have one that I bought two months ago, intending to build, but it is in the back of my stack behind about 20 other sets, so if it ends up being $200 by next summer, I'd be hard pressed to open the box. :)
    It depends on if LEGO makes another Castle soon (I think they were, but not sure) . It may go up a bit, but I do not see it really being a special castle, like the King's Seige set (with dragon)
  • I suspect the current castle will be around for a little longer; reason is that it's a perfect fit with the upcoming Joust set, and it'd therefore make no sense to retire it just yet.....
  • edited October 2011
    In retrospect, I see the MMV staying around for awhile longer if only because Lego just released the Mill Village Raid this year. Those two sets are perfect complements of each other.

    I guess the Series 5 Minifigs will be gone by the end of this year, and replaced with Series 6 early in 2012?
  • edited October 2011
    ^ MMV has been removed from S@H. Haha, Thank you MCN. :D
    Medieval Market Village is still available from Shop at Home, I just checked when looking for other sets.
  • MMV can easily be found at LEGO shop at home. Ironically, just look under the Hard to Find theme.

    I am going to side here with Farmer John about MMV - why kill the golden goose?
  • Three Kingdom sets now showing as sold out at Lego (USA):

    7946 King's Castle
    7948 Outpost Attack
    7950 Knight's Showdown

    It may be a good time to pickup any other Kingdom sets you might be interested in...
  • I know we're getting the Joust set, but I don't believe there has been any leaks on other castle themed sets. In the last decade or two, has there ever been a year without a new castle theme set?
  • According to a friend who work in a toy store in France, those sets will not be sold after december 2011:
    - Harry Potter theme (except 10217 that will still be available)
    - City : 7634, 7641, 7639, 7630, 3179, 3180, 7207
    - Star Wars: 8038, 8039. 8083, 8084, 8086, 8089. 8093. 8095. 8096
    - Creator: 5893, 6743
    - Technic: 8046, 8047, 8048, 8049, 8052, 8058

    He has not mentionned anything about the big sets though

    On another note, I was at Lego store Westfield a couple of weeks ago, and one of the staff member told me the 10197 will be discontinued...They did not have any on the shelf, and did not expect any shipment.
  • Noooo! I was intending to go and buy 10197 from Westfield on Brick Friday. Hmmph, will have to replan :(
  • I agree with many on the list provided by Supersympa...

    Several sets on his list have already been discontinued in the USA.
  • I noticed the King's Castle was on back order for a couple days before it changed to being Sold Out. I was thinking of getting it, but just never pulled the trigger on ordering.
  • @LostInTranslation - So that you don't miss out altogether, it might be worth ordering tonight before the double points and free delivery expire.
  • @flump6523: waaah! I can't afford to now, post-DS and Fire Temple! Credit card can't really take much more til later in the month.
    I wonder if my family really want Christmas presents this year, though...?
  • @flump6523: waaah! I can't afford to now, post-DS and Fire Temple! Credit card can't really take much more til later in the month.
    I wonder if my family really want Christmas presents this year, though...?
    Naaaah, they'll understand. They love you. Buy more Lego!
  • edited October 2011
    @odindusk: Excellent point. It's the thought that counts after all... I'll send out lots of positive energy vibes for them :)
    Though actually I've already got presents for all my sister's family, so would be a bit harsh on the rest of them!

    I'm trying to outrun the discontinuations: MMV, check. Death Star, check. FB?? Well, hopefully I'll be able to grab one (with ALL bags present!) before they disappear. Fingers crossed anyway (off topic but I feel like there should be an emoticon for fingers crossed, anyone know of one??)
  • TRU website still shows 7946 King's Castle available, marked up $5 above RRP to $104.99 (as of late on 10/31).

    Seems like there's a lot of anxiety among forum posters about sets and availability ... is that typical for this time of year, or is this year unusual? I just joined a few months ago, so I don't know what previous holiday seasons were like.
  • edited November 2011
    Because of TRU's typical overpricing of Lego sets, they always lag the sellouts. Lego.com shows the 7946 King's Castle as sold out (along with a couple other Kingdom sets - in the USA). It won't be long until TRU is empty as well, and $104.99 is probably as reasonable as you are going to find at this point.

    Yes...Lego tends to end-of-life older sets this time of year to make way for the newer sets that come out at the beginning of the year. Because there are so many cool sets, a collector can't buy them all when they come out and sometimes has to wait. The goal is not to wait too long and watch them become even more expensive on the secondary market.

    Note: I just went to the TRU USA site and it shows the 7946 set as gone.
  • edited November 2011
    ^^-- Around November is when most Lego sets that are going to be sold out, sell out.. Especially since LEGO usually has a big sale to clear out inventory around Thanksgiving Holiday (third week of November).
    Most LEGO sets tend to sell out around this time out year due to the Holidays...
    Usually the Creator modular sets (Green Grocer, Fire Brigade, etc) usually sell out before Thanksgiving.. Cafe Corner did around Thanksgiving, then Green Grocer, now it appears the Fire Brigade is the next up to sell out before the holiday. So start sweating around this time next year for the Grand Emporium....
  • With me I tend to buy the Modulars and other Lego Exclusives that interest me the week they come out. Of course, since I didn't come out of my Dark Age until late '09 I missed out on CC and ALMOST missed out on Town Plan, which I did get. Although, with the Death Star I did struggle with the decision to drop $400 on a set for over a year and finally I bought one this summer. With MMV, it was sort of an impulse buy for me early this year as I was building a "historical" section for my layout. So luckily I haven't had to worry about sets that are going to be sold out and discontinued. Though I will say this, if you are on the fence about a set that will retire this year, GET IT. Trust me you do not want to be kicking yourself later for not getting it.
  • I went on a rush of buying sets I fear will soon be discontinued after Thanksgiving. In the past two months I have picked up Medievil Market Village, Emeral Night, Fire Brigade and Death Star. Plan to pick up Imperial Flagship this weekend. I also picked two Town sets in the 36xx range - Police Chase and Bank & Money Transfer - as the store exclusive sets like last year's City House and Helicopter & Limo - tend to only last one year. So pick those up if you want them for your City collection!
  • Don't know if this is an indication of what will be discontinued at the end of the year, but one Walmart that I went to had Alien Conquest HQ on clearance.
  • I went on a rush of buying sets I fear will soon be discontinued after Thanksgiving. In the past two months I have picked up Medievil Market Village, Emeral Night, Fire Brigade and Death Star. Plan to pick up Imperial Flagship this weekend. I also picked two Town sets in the 36xx range - Police Chase and Bank & Money Transfer - as the store exclusive sets like last year's City House and Helicopter & Limo - tend to only last one year. So pick those up if you want them for your City collection!
    The Helicopter & Limo only lasted about 6 months here in the US as it snuck onto shelves and was gone at X-Mas time. The City House even shorter time as if i recall correctly it hit shelves late sept/early oct, and after x-mas wasn't restocked at all.

    As for the Bank & Money Transfer and the Police Chase set, the one you'll probably still see is the Bank after x-mas. That is unless it goes on clearance.
  • ^--- The Townhouse was available for a lot longer than the Limo and Helicopter the Townhouse was at least 6 months to a year in the US, the Limo and helicopter was about 3 months though... Even the LEGO store employees were shocked.. Im just glad I bought two when they first were available I would have bought more but I thought "Hey, they just showed up here, they will be around for a while"
  • I didn't end up getting the Republic Dropship and AT-OT during the Double-VIP promotion. Looks like I'm taking a huge chance, but hopefully, I'll be able to tell if things get dicey towards the end of the month when and how I shall buy it. But it BETTER not disappear before Thanksgiving, or I shall be giving myself a royal kicking, then.
  • Note: Fire Brigade is back in stock at Amazon with over a thousand units to sell.

    Oh well... :)

    (they can move that qty pretty quickly however, so it may still go out, this could be the last restock, or they could have 50,000 units, who knows...)
  • I see Republic Dropship quantity on Amazon is 620 units. TRU has them also but they are 27.00 higher than Amazon, and 15.00 more than S@H
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