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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • Man...I wish I could have got a UCS Falcon, but wasn't really collecting at the time.

    My gut instinct on the Death Star (just my opinion) is that it will be EOL'd before the next decent sale (i.e., 10% off). You can pick it up today for $360 plus a Christmas set using Lego S&H. If they do knock down the price to get rid of it (let's say 25-50% off), it will be gone so fast that you won't have an opportunity to get one (unless you happen to be on their site when the sale hits). You are correct in that it is going to be expensive when it's gone. If you're desperate to get one and not risk a sellout, use Lego S&H today before the 10% off sale is gone. If you're willing to risk it (like I am), wait and hope you are online at the right time and get an even better deal.

    JMO.
  • @y2josh Death Star is still prominently displayed in all the LEGO Stores I have been too, which wouldn't indicate retirement to me. But... it's been around forever, and they have new lines to make room for in 2012. I have 3 Death Stars that I got REALLY good deals on. If you really want it, get it for retail price. Once it's retired, the $40 difference you pay now will be nothing compared to how much higher in price they could go on the aftermarket. Just my opinion - it is widely reviewed as a classic LEGO set.
    Thanks.
    -Dan
  • When I ask in my local Lego store about this, they all agree 10188 is "due" for retirement, but they keep getting new shipments in.

    Nothing indicates so far that it really is going, other than how long it has been out. It is backordered, not sold out, and while Amazon has 946 left in stock right now, Amazon has run out multiple times this year and restocked thousands of sets.
  • @Farmer_John I actually managed to pick up the UCS Falcon for $249.99 when KB was going out of business. I think that set spoiled me as far great deals go, and I'm probably just going to bite the bullet on the Death Star. I've seen the obscene prices 10179 fetches on eBay, and, though I wouldn't imagine the Death Star would get to that point, I still think it will become far too expensive for me to even consider at that point. Perhaps that's just overblown fear on my part, though.
  • $250 for UCS Falcon? Ugg, that is annoying...

    Of course, when KB went, had I seen that, I would have thought "what, that is absurd, what kind of idiot would spend $250 on a plastic toy!"

    Ha, how little did I know...
  • @LegoFanTexas If it makes you feel any better, I'm still kicking myself over not buying an extra. They had a limit of two online and I thought, "Well... I can't see why I'd ever need two."

    Hindsight is 20/20, though.
  • @LegoFanTexas I am curious where did you check Amazon stock quantity? I looked and looked but can't seem to find it.
  • ^-- when the item is in your cart you can put something like '999' and update.
    Whatever appears left in stock is what they have.
  • 90 minutes later Amazon is down from 946 to 926, so they sold 20 sets in 90 minutes...

    Not bad for Sunday night at 11pm. :)

    They will sell those out by Christmas, that is for sure. The question becomes, will they restock? Nothing stops Amazon from buying 50,000 sets, they can handle it and it would keep them in stock for another year probably.
  • Side note: Grand Emporium is up to $220 on Amazon via 3rd party sellers.

    Yes, it probably isn't "really" gone, but darn, if it is, it may pass Green Grocer at this pace. :)

    Maybe I'll have to swing by the Lego store tomorrow and buy another copy of it, "just in case". :)
  • @madforlegos Thanks! I get it now. I wonder why people buy from Amazon instead of S@H. Dont they get better deal with 10% off, VIP points and free holiday set?
  • @pumperx Well... it's currently out of stock at S@H with no guarantee it will be received by Christmas. I suspect that has something to do with it. Plus, if you live in a state where S@H charges tax, this set gets quite a bit tacked onto the top of it.
  • Many times Amazon sells sets for good discounts. If you can save 25% or more from Amazon, why buy from S@H?
  • edited November 2011
    ^^ They called around and found one at the store in Dallas. They had the store ship it to me - no charge for shipping. You can't imagine the relief.
    Sweet Jesus. I was right there with you the whole way through that tale. You didn't hear the cry out I gave when I heard UPS were returning to sender. So glad it worked out in he end! Right, I need a coffee!
  • ^^ LegoFanTexas the Grand Emporium status at S@H has changed from "sold out" to expected ship date December. I believe the Emporium is slated to retire 12/2013 so we have plenty of time. Given you can use multiples of this set to make a monster Emporium keep what happened to Cafe Corner in mind.
  • Grand Emporium is back on S@H, backordered, but no longer listed as sold out.

  • It appears a S@H admin came in this morning and fixed the issue :-)
  • Does anyone have any news to confirm the Imperial Flagship is gone for good? It was first released Jan 2010 and there are 2 other ships from the POTC theme and there is the Dutchman rumor for next year. Seems like a short run but don't know if we will see 4 ships on the shelves at once.
  • My local store manager said she was unable to get more Imperial Flagships, and that while Lego has the right to do anything they want, she believes it is gone for good.
  • If we didn't get a cancelation e-mail over the weekend, are we more or less likely to get the IF we ordered. Or doesn't it make any difference? I'm kinda waiting for the other shoe to drop here.
  • Imperial Flagship on Amazon just went to $149...

    Not as good as the 25% off Lego was doing, but they are now almost impossible to get from Lego.

    Something to think about...
  • ^^ Yep S@H has just changed the availability to call, Amazon has them on sale and Target online just found another 99+ sets...I am thinking this one still has a while to go.
  • I called S&H 45 minutes ago on the IF and she said they were out, also out on EM.
  • Amazon stock still hasn't dropped below +999 yet on the IF, wonder if it will dip below that today sometime.
  • @dremel99: Would you mind sharing how you check Amazon's stock on a particular item? Thanks.

    BTW, S@H's phone lines are jammed. I have been on hold for more than 15 minutes already...
  • @Datoda add 999 to your shopping cart. The amount that actually gets added is how much they have.
  • Imperial Flagship on Amazon just went to $149...

    Not as good as the 25% off Lego was doing, but they are now almost impossible to get from Lego.

    Something to think about...
    Thanks for the tip, I purchased one, and will probably purchase another one or two today. I buy one at a time so I get a shipping box for each, instead of three crammed into one box.

  • @dremel99 - Amazon can (and does) combine orders into fewer shipping boxes to save $ on shipping.

    The only way to avoid that is to use different shipping addresses or wait until the item has been picked in the warehouse.

    Brent
  • Oh, great point, I didn't think of that, if I wait until it is picked up, the sale will be off, maybe I will have to rethink plan. Thanks for the tip!
  • Shipping to different names (or variations: Bob vs. Robert) at the same address should also work. Plus, UPS has no idea who lives at your house... just a thought. ;)

    Brent
  • Just got home from my local lego store, they were cleaned out of grand emporiums, even their off site storage was empty.

    They did get in 21 more emerald nights, they had 12 left this afternoon, so I picked up 3 of them.
  • edited November 2011
    ^ Did they still give the 25% off on Emerald Nights? Did your store still have holiday set #2 too?
  • Yes, got 25% off on Emerald Nights and yes I got another holiday set #2
  • Anyone happen to know what inventory looks like at the Downtown Disney store? I've been at Legoland in Winter Haven today, and am wondering if it's worth a trip tomorrow.
  • @LegoFanTexas - wow, your haul keeps growing! Congrats.
  • @brickupdate - I'm stashing items while the sale is going on, plus I have a decent collection of pick-a-brick boxes...

    I might go back to the store one more time tonight to pickup a few more, haven't decided yet.

    My wife actually went to the store with me today, she is so supportive! :)
  • @LegoFanTexas - Please clone your wife or at least have her do a mind-meld on mine.
  • edited November 2011

    They did get in 21 more emerald nights, they had 12 left this afternoon, so I picked up 3 of them.
    Interesting ... my Lego store (Phoenix) had no EN or IF today, and didn't know if they'd get more. Friday morning I called to see if EN was available, found a rep who said she thought she could place an order. Later got two emails, one saying "out of stock" and the other saying "backordered." I'm guessing I'm not seeing that train arrive here.

    Just checked Lego.com, it says the order is "in process." So I've got the bad news 3 different ways.
  • Just talked to a Lego CS representative regarding the IF, AT-AT, and Winter Toy Shop being "sold out." He said all three were gone for good, so if you really want an IF you can get one at Amazon for $150 as of this posting. Furthermore, I was concerned about an AT-AT order I submitted on Sunday morning that is listed as backordered. His comment was that Lego has gone through 4 renditions of the AT-AT and that he would be surprised if they didn't come out with another version. Maybe not this year, but at some point. FYI.
  • My local LEGO store had all three modulars, the Space Shuttle, SW UCSs, MMV, Imperial Flagshop...basically every AFOL type set except the Emerald. One customer ahead of me in line spent about $2000 on various $100+ sets. He was not a collector, he was shopping for xMas gifsts.
  • It isn't hard to spend $2K in the Lego store these days, there are a lot of $100+ Lego sets to buy as gifts.

    Something that is often forgotten is that there is a subset of the population to whom none of these dollar amounts are a big deal. $2K to them is like $20 to you and me, they don't care what is on sale, what is a "deal", it honestly isn't worth their time to figure it out.

    That group of people is larger than you think, 1 out of every 12 Americans is a millionaire, which to be sure isn't as much money as it used to be, but there is no shortage of people out there with money.

    Just saying... :)
  • One out of every 12 American HOUSEHOLDS is a millionaire. Which isn't exactly the same thing.
  • Ahh, that is a good point... :)

    We are not one of them, but if you came into our Lego room, you might think so.
  • ^^ 1 in 12 ?! Maybe if they calculate it as equity in house + pension pot + savings + assets of everybody living in that house it might just be plausible.
  • ^^ agree drdavewatford, I would consider someone a millionaire as someone that has $1,000,000 in cash in the bank, ie. they could write a check for one million dollars that would clear in one day. I know no one that can do this.
  • I have purchased a few hundred $$ worth of Lego the past couple of months but I can't keep it up. I'm wondering if jealousy will start because of all these guys buying tons of stuff and even whole palettes of products. Just seems to take the fun out of it. It's already expensive enough.
  • Yes, the 1 in 12 number is "net worth", not cash in the bank.

    But then keep in mind it would be pretty foolish to actually keep $1 Million cash in the bank, that money would not be working for you just sitting there. You really only need 3 months of living money as cash in the bank, then everything else can be in investments.
  • Just talked to a Lego CS representative regarding the IF, AT-AT, and Winter Toy Shop being "sold out." He said all three were gone for good, so if you really want an IF you can get one at Amazon for $150 as of this posting. Furthermore, I was concerned about an AT-AT order I submitted on Sunday morning that is listed as backordered. His comment was that Lego has gone through 4 renditions of the AT-AT and that he would be surprised if they didn't come out with another version. Maybe not this year, but at some point. FYI.
    Great updates. Forgive me, what is the IF?
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