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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • Maersk trains occasionally show up for 99 dollars on Amazon.com
  • It seems like every time I do a search of the most popular selling Lego sets at Amazon, Ninjago always tops the list. I would expect anything Ninjago that is EOL'd to do well based on that alone...
  • Take another look at 2260... Talk about wow... :)
  • edited April 2012
    ^^ Yup... each time I am in Walmart, TRU, or Target they have practically no Ninjago in stock. Just a set here, a set there.
  • Has anyone else noticed that Friends is also in the top 10 of Amazon's Lego sales every week?

    Almost every girl we know loves this theme, my daughter has every one of them (yea, I'm a big sucker), they are really well done.

    I see these doing almost as well as Ninjago...
  • Trains.. I agree with all the posters above - Emerald Night did well.. Maersk will do well (Look at the Maersk container ship for evidence).. The other trains will do just OK.. IMO.. they are not unique enough for someone to splurge on them in the aftermarket..
  • I grabbed my Maersk train during one of the $99 Amazon sales, but those are few and far between. The good sales of Ninjago and Friends may speak to long term returns on investment, when... you know... those 8 year olds turn 38 and look to buy the "vintage" toys from their childhood! :)
  • Has anyone else noticed that Friends is also in the top 10 of Amazon's Lego sales every week?

    Almost every girl we know loves this theme, my daughter has every one of them (yea, I'm a big sucker), they are really well done.

    I see these doing almost as well as Ninjago...
    That's really interesting. Will Lego EOL the 1st wave of Friends early (aka Ice Dragon)? That would double some of those sets quickly.
  • I have been slowly grabbing up Friends and Ninjago also. They are doing very well. I also was wondering if they will retire some of the 1st wave of Friends after a year for a quick return. I hope so.
    I know I posted a page back about the CTT on Lego.com being " call for availability". How do you guys think that will do later on?? Thanks!
  • Will girls be as fanatical for missed sets of friends (and pay more than RRP for them when EOL) as boys (and some girls no doubt!) and AFOLs are for popular themes like Star Wars?
  • Personally, I have never been interested, but have grabbed a few where they were on sale.

    I just asked my youngest what he thought about Ninjago and he said he likes the red box sets (the old ones) better than the green box sets (the new ones). I should have asked him about it 6 months ago based on the EOL prices I'm seeing.
  • I wish the UK would become more interested in Ninjago as its not as popular over here and doesn't command any EOL price really. I have a few fire temples to sell!!
  • ^ I guess some channel needs to get the cartoons, and they will fly in price.
  • Clone Turbo Tank is now 'call for availability' along with the Grievous Starfighter. The CTT has some good figs, should augment nicely.
  • 10198 has jumped in price, the under $200 sellers on Amazon are gone, but Bricklink and eBay still have it...

    I predict this set will be $300 by Christmas

    As for CTT, Amazon is now sold out of it, but that doesn't mean much, they go in and out of stock all the time, however this set is 2 years old, with the summer Star Wars sets coming, it is due for retirement.

    Might see that one discounted on May 4th. If so, they'll sell out quickly. But then again, I don't think Lego has to discount it, it'll sell out just fine on its own.

    I would not expect CTT to be here for Christmas, which is why I now have a stack of them upstairs. :) (picked up when Amazon was nice enough to give them away for $80 each last month)
  • ^I'm continuing to stay away from Star Wars.. the returns are not as good as other series considering the amount of resellers..
  • But the amount of buyers is consistent.
  • edited April 2012
    But when EVERYONE has it in their head to holds sets to sell then you have a depreciated market, especially when Star Wars sets usually are duplicated every so many years... True to have sets like Sandcrawler, Cantina, and Jengo Fett, but then you have the Grevious star fighter, Darth Maul Sith infiltrator, Falcon, At-At, etc.
  • AT-AT has now been done three times, but that hasn't stopped the most recent one from doubling in value in 3 months.
  • My guess is that sets like the Sandcrawler, Cantina, Cloud City will get at least one more make over. Those theoretical sets will probably be the ones to invest in.

    BTW, Star Wars won't die. My three year old son who hasn't even sat through one of the movies is a huge fan.
  • ^I'm not saying Star Wars is bad.. it's just OK.. in comparison to other series (and a few hopefuls of mine).. Star Wars used to be amazing.. but.. like I said.. the aftermarket is saturated.. your best bet are larger sets with good/rare minifigs.. it's more of a risk.. but small sets simply won't pay off..
  • ^I consistently sell SW battlepacks for 3 x what I paid
  • Surprised to see people mention Clone Turbo Tank, I haven't seen it on a shelf in about 6 months, nor has it been on S@H. Do sets get EOL'd at different times in certain regions? Or are people talking about Amazon stock?
  • @roxio glad to hear that, speaking as someone who has dozens and dozens of battle packs that I likely need to pair down on.
  • ^^ It is still S@H in the US but only call for availibility
  • ^^^ It is still on the shelves in my local Lego store - maybe I should finally pick one up.
  • CTT was never really marked down often. Retailers consistently sold it for $120. I couldn't pull the trigger when Amazon had it for $80 and I knew that was my small window. It's not as great as the first version, but SW doesn't have a lot of large land-based vehicles.

    Don't wait if you want one. It'll be a great set for the holidays.
  • I think "Friends" will do o.k. later on as it has some rare colors......atleast I hope so as I have been buying it. :)
  • 10198 has jumped in price, the under $200 sellers on Amazon are gone, but Bricklink and eBay still have it...

    I predict this set will be $300 by Christmas
    Target still has it at $158. If it hits $300 by Christmas that will be a good investment.
  • Target has it listed, do they have it in stock, to actually ship? Hmm, to buy more or not... :)
  • edited April 2012
    Has anyone seen many sales on the Friends series? I have a 7 month old daughter and its actually the kind of series I'd like to put away for her to play with later (just in case LEGO stops making the series). I'd like to find them on sale if possible though.
  • ^ I don't think there was ever a Friends sale ever at any Canadian Toy Retailer.
  • Target has it listed, do they have it in stock, to actually ship? Hmm, to buy more or not... :)
    I added them to my cart and it shows they have 74 left in stock. I wonder how long until those are gone...

  • Target has it listed, do they have it in stock, to actually ship? Hmm, to buy more or not... :)


    I added them to my cart and it shows they have 74 left in stock. I wonder how long until those are gone...
    I bought one.

    $10 off with AAA, 5% off with Target card, and 5.5% cash back with Rewards Runner.
  • I think "Friends" will do o.k. later on as it has some rare colors......atleast I hope so as I have been buying it. :)
    This is a Lego (not licensed) series, so they are likely to reuse parts in those colours again and again in future Friends sets.
  • edited April 2012
    Just my take, and I'm no expert, but my guess is that Friends will be around for years and years. It is successful and the only LEGO line directed specifically at girls and is not licensed. They can make all kinds of sets around the line. If it stays successful, and I see no reason why it wouldn't, it would be worth investing in. I think the very first sets will eventually sell for a good profit, simply because they are the first. Also, what if they don't remake some of the characters? That is yet to be seen, but if they don't they could go the minifig route.
    As with any LEGO set, or LEGO line, there are so many variables to take into account it is difficult to know what the future holds. And, that is the case with Friends. But, if it were easy everyone would do it. Right? :-)
  • I think Friends has been successful enough for wave 2 and 3. And with the Duplo Disney sets (Cinderella castle) out, they are feeding the pipeline for 2 and 3-year-old girls now. That had been missing before.

    I've noticed in my area, the larger Friends sets are the ones out of stock more often. It's really a city series with modifications in pink, lime and purple. I wonder what other larger sets they'll create for it? A school or a "Chuck-E-Cheese" entertainment spot would be nice to see.
  • edited April 2012
    I bought one.

    $10 off with AAA, 5% off with Target card, and 5.5% cash back with Rewards Runner.
    Recent 'guest' reader. Had to join today to specifically thank 'sidersdd' for the info on $10 off Target for AAA members! If only I'd have known this years ago, but so thankful I do now!!! Thanks everyone as well for all of your insight. Can't get enough of this place. :)
  • edited April 2012
    Recent reader and new sign up. Just wanted to say thanks for all the insight on the forums. I am AFOL with 2 youngsters that I have corrupted as well. :-)

    Not long ago, AAA allowed a 10% discount on the whole order. We did a few big orders back when Bing stacked with the AAA discount.

    Target down to 52 on the 10198.
  • Last I checked, Captain Antilles is exclusive to 10198. ;o) While it would have been so much cooler with a firefight hallway, it still remains one of my favorite SW sets, much moreso than the Sail Barge, Cloud City, Sandcrawler, etc. And as an OT set and a ship and a cool looking ship, I expect it to do quite well in the aftermarket. Don't forget, people poopooed the AT-OT too and that didn't even include any interesting, let alone exclusive, figures.
  • Can anyone tell me the set that has had the longest running production time? There's been some discussion about norms and anomalies, but I'm curious as to which set actually stayed around longest. I ran some searches but couldn't find anything. I'm guessing for some of you/us it seems like it's DS or MMV...

    Secondly, is it common for a set to be discontinued, EOL'd, or otherwise vanish into unavailability in the middle of the year, or if they plow into the new year despite all expectations and hoopla do they run (and run and run) through the holiday frenzy? I know the question is rather general, involving all the frustrating vagueness of "usually" and "typically," so the more anyone can provide specification with examples would be most helpful. But I'll take the "usual" and "typical" stuff too!

    If this ought to have been on a different thread, my bad, but it seems to fit here.
  • To the first point of your question, the Death Star is actually a little bit older than MMV, the former coming out in September of '08 and the latter launching in January of '09. Meanwhile, the 6212 X-Wing came out around August of '06 and just finally ended its run late last year (presumably to make room for the new model).

    As for sets EOL'ing in the middle of the year... I feel like more sets EOL in the middle of the year than at the end... there's just not as much fanfare. It's more than a little likely that LEGO decides when a set is getting its final production run and a set EOLs based entirely on how long that stock remains.

    And just as an example, the UCS Falcon went out in May (though this was tied to a rare LEGO announcement of production for the set being discontinued as well as a fairly great May the 4th deal).
  • Hello i'm Tijrijn i've been lurking this thread for a long time. Thanks for all the inside information everyone has been willing to share !! What are your thoughts about Ninjago, I've got quite a few ice dragon and lightning dragon sets... will these grow in time or is the value at the moment based on people wanting to complement their collection and is the sweet spot for selling them at this point in time.
  • I don't see how re-doing a Star Wars has much to do with the value of the previous set. In the Action Figure market, they have re-done the same character many times, sometimes just re-painting the same exact figure and releasing it. A pure Lego Star Wars collector will want every X-Wing that was produced. I think people are letting their personal tastes interfere with what is collectible and what is not. I'm sure many of you can find ways to make any Lego set better, but that's not the point and I don't think most people will not care if the Tantive IV is ugly or not. It's a Lego Star Wars set and it does come with an exclusive figure.
  • ^ When sets get re-done the previous set's values go down. Happens time and time again. Its not anyone's personal tastes here. AT-AT's, Falcons, AT-TE's, X-Wings, Gunships, etc . . . They usually stay above RRP but they do not maintain their highs once they are re-done.
  • Ok, the new X-wing has been out for a month and yet I was still able to sell 45O2 for what I was asking for before 9493 came out.
  • 4502 doesn't really count because it's the dagobah version with yoda's hut and swamp crap on the xwing.
  • ^ Yes, there are always exceptions...

    8129 - AT-AT did not reduce the value of 10178 - Power Functions AT-AT, because of course the latter is unique and unlikely to ever be done again.

    The older AT-AT, still is holding its own, it is probably the best looking one of the bunch, in my personal opinion...
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