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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • Having looked back at the previous posts from one particular person - I'm guessing that they either work for Lego or Amazon or they have an inventory that they're tracking prices on - like some stock market investment? Either way I hope they are enjoying Lego - as they may have forgotton its a toy to be built/played with, and not speculated or hyped about!!

    As of 18.30 today both EN and Imperial flagship are available from S@H in the UK........
  • edited December 2011
    Either way I hope they are enjoying Lego - as they may have forgotton its a toy to be built/played with, and not speculated or hyped about!!

    As of 18.30 today both EN and Imperial flagship are available from S@H in the UK........
    Lego is what ever anyone wants it to be. It can be speculated on and hyped if so desired. It can be a great speculating and reselling item. Noone can say the that it is only to be built/played with???? I say speculate, hoard, collect, build, hype or whatever else you like. This is free country over here still, some people may have forgotten that.
  • Lego could also possibly be taking the surge in Modular Popularity into account. I'm sure everyone here wouldve been happier if the Green Grocer and Cafe Corner had stuck around for an extra year. So maybe Lego is extending the "Shelf Life" on sets like that knowing they'll be perennial good sellers.
  • ^That's my best bet. A part of me wants to get Fire Brigade now, until it's available, but the other part of me believes it may stay longer on the Shelves (I will get it this week anyway).

    Not being discounted during Brick Friday was an indication that it may last one more year. The same goes for MMV.

    I think LEGO took notice that modular sets are very popular and will not only leave the current line on shelves for longer, but I would not dismiss the possibility of them bringing back Cafe Corner, Market Street or Green Grocer back in the future, since a lot of people missed on those sets (I am one. I was already onto LEGO when GG was around and I missed it), specially when they see what goes on Amazon and eBay concerning these sets.

    They are bringing Batman back... and it's going to kill the eBay speculators that were offering figs from magnet sets for $100, so anything is possible. I've seen people saying on these forums that LEGO does not care about collectors or AFOLs, but I think you're wrong. Aren't they quick to ask Huw to remove images of unreleased sets? It means that they have people watching this stuff online, specially Brickset, these forums and even what I am writing right now. They are wise to do that so they can plan their strategies better in the future.
  • @Rollo_Tomassi - you're right, in the short run... But if Lego becomes unpredictable, they might find that AFOLs, collectors, and resellers are more of their business than they think.

    If sets stick around for longer periods of time, they may just be spreading sales out over more time and actually reducing the total size of their market, rather than growing it.
  • @prevere - I (kind of) agree - the sets that gather value are those that no one buys at the time, but suddenly become popular thereafter. However, other than for die-hard star wars completists coming to the lego game late, I can't see the UCS obiwan starfighter falling into that camp. it could be another 10186.

    the ($64k) question is, what else is in the underbought but future desirable bucket?
  • Really? Tower Bridge? After Taj Mahal? I would think that would be one that was overbought because of 10189...
  • ^ Dunno. How many do you have? I just have the one I bought my wife for Xmas last year. According to my local LEGO store, they don't sell many. It's the one that (up until recently) always appeared to be in-stock at TRU.com. Unimog too - but that's probably because it's jacked up in price.
  • I don't have any extra, other than the one I built, but that is because I don't think it is going away for awhile.

    Next Christmas, I'll be looking to get a dozen of them.
  • I agree with sidersdd, these look like the next underbought sets, but I think Space Shuttle will get a bit more value because it's Minifigure-scale. Maybe to the level of the modulars, or even some older train sets. Since we don't have anymore space shuttle missions from NASA, these will become very sought-after by the collectors. Other than the Star Wars UCS, I don't see sets becoming that desirable if they are not made for Minifigures.
  • I agree with sidersdd, these look like the next underbought sets, but I think Space Shuttle will get a bit more value because it's Minifigure-scale. Maybe to the level of the modulars, or even some older train sets. Since we don't have anymore space shuttle missions from NASA, these will become very sought-after by the collectors. Other than the Star Wars UCS, I don't see sets becoming that desirable if they are not made for Minifigures.
    I agree re: minifig scale, except for the 'BIG' sets like Taj and Tower Bridge. People will want those because they are the "largest and most difficult" sets that LEGO creates, AND they are expensive enough to be out of reach for the masses.

    Brent
  • ^Space Shuttle and Tower Bridge
    Totally.

    Haven't heard much discussion on Ninjago "Series 1" retirement. With the new series out, tv show, games, etc - kinda wondering if the Fire Temple and others will silently disappear soon in 2012 Q1. But, TLG is full-on marketing that line hardcore.

    That silly giant plastic frisbee called the Battle Arena (free with TRU purchases this summer) - is now going for $25-$30.
  • There are no official discontinuation dates so I would take that list with several grains of salt. As for Diagon lasting into 2013, I personally wouldn't bet on it. And the mini modulars, IMO, will have no bearing on when the current modulars disappear into the ether. I imagine they will continue to follow the similar path of their predecessors.

    As others have noted, shelf space is a zero sum game. We can't simply keep adding themes and/or sets without losing others. If a set you've been watching has been out a while and there is a new similarly priced set filling the same niche, the writing is on the wall. Another telltale sign seems to be if the newest wave of sets in your theme is really small (ahem, PotC) or worse, nonexistent (cough Pharaoh's Quest, cough cough).

    If Alien Conquest is also one and done, I wonder what's next for Space... these last 2 subthemes were pretty cool.
  • On the space thing Yellowcastle:

    There aren't any solid space license opportunities in the entertainment world (obviously not counting SW), which is a good thing. I kind of like these small "one-off" series like AC.

    A "Total Recall" Mars colony series would be super-sweet. (You know someone on eBay would make a customized Lego 3-breasted mutant prostitute). Or moon colony, something with large rovers and new crater baseplates. (But not stupid looking sand green alien heads - like from the last Mars series. Ugh.)

    Space Racers (different ships and podracer-like stuff).

    Deep Space (mix of Battlestar Galactica type ships; probes; exploration aircraft; and strange planet setups with alien creatures - say like LB426).

  • ^--- well they ARE re-doing Total Recall as another movie, so I guess it would be possible, but only if the move is PG, becuase kids would need to be able to see it to generate interest in the line.
    Heck Id like to see a 'retro' space them like of the late 70's early 80's.
  • ^--- well they ARE re-doing Total Recall as another movie, so I guess it would be possible, but only if the move is PG, becuase kids would need to be able to see it to generate interest in the line.
    Heck Id like to see a 'retro' space them like of the late 70's early 80's.
    I would prefer that too. I just don't see TLG doing anything retro. Seeing classic space sets with light bluish gray would just bother me.
  • Okay everyone, start your engines on the countdown to Emerald Night retirement. Amazon now has under 1,000 of them, 982 to be exact. They sold six in the last hour. I expect that the rate of sale to increase as they get lower. I may pick up another 2 of them.
    Thanks.
    -Dan
  • Interesting, I checked both EM and IF this morning and both were still +999, yes I think these are the last ones available prob. I better pickup a few more, Thanks for the heads up!
  • edited December 2011
    Okay...does everyone agree that the AC Earth Defense Conquest is actually sold out for good? A number of people on this site said this was possibly the best set released this year. I'm not arguing the point...just curious why lego would EOL a great set so quickly? Lego still shows it as sold out.

    I was actually able to pick up one through Amazon when the prices were lower than TLG' sale (even with an additional 10% off).

    As a post script, my IF shipped from Lego today. This was the one that briefly popped up for sale on Tuesday morning and I jumped on it. I then called lego CS that night and got the additional 10% off it because they had cancelled my previous order for it.
  • strange planet setups with alien creatures - say like LB426).
    Did someone mention Prometheus..? ;o)

  • I don't think anyone has mentioned some of the smaller sets that have sold out. The calendar they made earlier in the year has disappeared very quickly. Shame, I missed that!
  • I like the TB set, but could only justify purchasing one at its current prices. If it goes on sale (25% off plus and additional 10%), I will try to snag a couple more. It looks like the perfect late night project for my wife and I while the kiddos are asleep. If it was only to scale with the MFs, I could post a bunch of Series 6 British Guards around it or something. Of course if it was to scale with MFs, I would probably have to build it in my back yard.
  • I don't think anyone has mentioned some of the smaller sets that have sold out. The calendar they made earlier in the year has disappeared very quickly. Shame, I missed that!
    If we're talking about the same calendar (which I like too), it still shows for sale at S@H.
  • Amazon dropped the Death Star to $379, so I picked one up finally. Toying with the idea of purchasing another (they have a two piece limit on the set).
  • http://www.brickset.com/detail/?Set=853195-1 - out of stock in the UK, in which case would someone be kind enough to get me one in the states? - I've got heaps to trade, just check out my store:
    http://www.bricklink.com/store.asp?p=Savage_steel
  • The calendar JUST came out, and is still available in the US LEGO Shop. Can't imagine they are retiring this already.
  • The calendar is out of stock in the UK? Curse it, I was meant to be getting it for Christmas... Can anyone ship me one from the US? I also have heaps to trade:
    http://www.bricklink.com/store.asp?p=AlbusDumbledore

    (but do savage first)
  • strange planet setups with alien creatures - say like LB426).
    Did someone mention Prometheus..? ;o)

    Nice.

  • Wondering when some of the first Architecture series (Sears tower, FallingWater, etc) will be retired. Those have been out forever.
  • So the Emerald Night seems to be selling 10 per three hour increments on Amazon, giving it 12 days maximum via my 5th grade math skills. I have to assume that as fewer are in stock, the quicker they will sell, so I'd estimate a week left on this one. Then... watch those eBay sellers go to town with the prices!
  • Okay...does everyone agree that the AC Earth Defense Conquest is actually sold out for good?
    Man, I find it hard to believe that it's truly done for. But I suppose it's possible if sales of the theme have been horrible. I LOVE AC and hope another round of sets comes forth in 2012.

    If it gets confirmed in any way that AC is on its way out, I will probably scramble and get a couple more copies of the sets in the line.

    A side thought: does anyone else think the box art for these sets are amazing? I mean, who cares right? It's a box. But these are really cool. Very well done by the design team at Lego.

  • So the Emerald Night seems to be selling 10 per three hour increments on Amazon, giving it 12 days maximum via my 5th grade math skills. I have to assume that as fewer are in stock, the quicker they will sell, so I'd estimate a week left on this one. Then... watch those eBay sellers go to town with the prices!
    I don't think the EN aftermarket prices will climb too high (over 35%) in the next 6 months. Long-term heck ya, it'll hover around $200. The train theme is so incredibly consistent.

  • edited December 2011
    The EN is one of the best designed trains Lego has ever produced in my opinion. It has a classic design and color scheme for all three components. I can see it going between $200-300 long term.

    Now if Lego could only do as well on the tracks they produce! I really don't like the flex tracks at all, and that seems to be all they sell.
  • Hmm once again I'm feeling like I don't have enough EN's, so I go to amazon and can only buy 5 (?) ... is this normal, do they always limit quantities? If I place another order for 5 more will both orders be fulfilled? Dell once cancelled my account and barred me from buying from them because I placed 2 separate 5 unit orders for PC's that were on sale with a max qty of 5 and I don't want to annoy amazon right now..
  • Usually Amazon won't even let you place a new order if you've already exceeded your limit. You can get around this by setting up a second account with a different name or a different address (work, for example).
  • ^ Order with their Iphone or Android app from you phone. Limited to 5 at a time but you can place as many of those orders as u like.

    Folks still think (hope) the Deathstar playset is retiring soon? Remember the X-Wing......

    Anyone else want to see a seasonal Peanuts theme?
  • Speaking of peanuts... It is not what you meant, but I would like the M&Ms in Lego. A desktop display of the various colors and their faces would be cool. :)
  • Fedex just delivered the IF I ordered on the Tuesday after it sold out. It just popped up early Tuesday morning on S@H and I jumped on it, got lucky, and they shipped me one. Unlike my other IF order, the box for this one arrived in great condition.

    As an aside, my boys and I built the IF that arrived with the box torn up. It was a very fun build and the ship is huge. It's only missing one piece and one side of the red cannon holder broke trying to snap in a cannon. I think Lego will handle that for us, so all in all a great experience!
  • Looks like the MF Wedding Favor Set just sold out. The most intriguing thing about this set is all the back and forth on Lego's S@H feedback forum regarding the fact that Lego actually had the gall to use a "man" and a "woman" for the wedding set (not a "man" and another "man," a "man" and a "livestock animal," etc.). Kind of turned my stomach to be honest...glad to see it go.
  • Looks like the MF Wedding Favor Set just sold out. The most intriguing thing about this set is all the back and forth on Lego's S@H feedback forum regarding the fact that Lego actually had the gall to use a "man" and a "woman" for the wedding set (not a "man" and another "man," a "man" and a "livestock animal," etc.). Kind of turned my stomach to be honest...glad to see it go.
    It's coming back. Not a discontinued item.

  • Imperial Flagship definitely going to be gone. Just arrived from my local store where I snatched one for $134.88. They had only 3 in stock, the two others had somewhat damaged boxes (mostly artwork on the front and some heavy shelfwear), I've got the only one that was looking mint. The staff said they are not expecting any more shipments of these. It's completely done after those two I've left there. Now, they changed the price, while I was paying for my purchase back to $179.99 on the ones I left there. I was lucky enough that they forgot to adjust back the price on these right after Black Friday, so I got myself a nice discount.
  • Imperial Flagship definitely going to be gone. Just arrived from my local store where I snatched one for $134.88. They had only 3 in stock, the two others had somewhat damaged boxes (mostly artwork on the front and some heavy shelfwear), I've got the only one that was looking mint. The staff said they are not expecting any more shipments of these. It's completely done after those two I've left there. Now, they changed the price, while I was paying for my purchase back to $179.99 on the ones I left there. I was lucky enough that they forgot to adjust back the price on these right after Black Friday, so I got myself a nice discount.
    If you buy beat up boxes the LEGO store will sometimes take 10-20% off of the boxes

  • If you buy beat up boxes the LEGO store will sometimes take 10-20% off of the boxes
    Yeah, I know... but the sets were already discounted, plus the lady in charge of the store (don't know if she was a manager or not), was not being friendly at all (I'll tell my story at the Holiday PAB Boxes thread), she could've give me the 10% off RRP and I'd have lost that great price, plus I wanted a set with a pristine box. I may want to sell it in the future. Don't know yet.

  • edited December 2011
    I don't think the EN aftermarket prices will climb too high (over 35%) in the next 6 months. Long-term heck ya, it'll hover around $200. The train theme is so incredibly consistent.
    I doubt you will be able to buy EM in 6 months for 135.00. I think in 6 months you will be seeing EM selling between 175.00-200.00. That is my guess. EM is already selling on Ebay at 120.00 plus 10.00 shipping.
  • Why buy from eBay for $120 when they are still @ Amazon for $90?
  • On a side note...

    The Death Star is below 200 units at Amazon now, if anyone has been waiting to get one, now is the time.
  • edited December 2011
    Why buy from eBay for $120 when they are still @ Amazon for $90?
    Better yet, buy at Target with the $7 off over $70 +FS, add in the Recard or shopdiscover discount and I think it will come in under $80 (before any tax)

  • On a side note...

    The Death Star is below 200 units at Amazon now, if anyone has been waiting to get one, now is the time.
    Ugh... as much as the idea of more Death Stars intrigues me, and I know they will increase in price, I got a few from a TRU BOGO sales ealier this year and that is enough for me...
    Especially if they happen to get discounted after Christmas at LEGO.
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