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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • MinifigsMeMinifigsMe
    The airport and associated sets appear to be EOL. Not heard of any replacements. Could be interesting in terms of parents wanting to get planes for their kids...
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  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas
    @Farmer_John - just curious, why did you not finish the order? List price for an IF, even with tax added, is very cheap considering what they cost everywhere else.
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  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John
    @LegoFanTexas - I did end up biting the bullet and purchasing one IF last night, and it currently shows "in process." But it was a big decision for me for a few reasons:

    1) I already have four MISB IFs that I purchased on sale, and it's hard to pay full price plus.
    2) I have purchased so many sets over the past couple months that I am starting to feel guilty about the expenditures.
    3) I am running out of storage space, but hope to have my Lego room finished in the next few weeks (before the attic starts heating up).
    4) I am one of those people that already pays a lot of taxes, and it pains me greatly to give irresponsible politicians even more of my hard-earned cash.
    5) I was spoiled by Lego's free shipping last month, and paying for shipping (esp. with Amazon out there) is tough.
    6) Wasn't sure if I could keep this purchase from the wife, and don't want to have her turn against my hobby-business. Decided to ask for permission...which was duly granted.

    Conversely, I did eventually decide to buy one for a few reasons:

    1) Its a beautiful set...period...I believe one of Lego's best sets ever.
    2) I can already feel the bruises on my hind quarters for kicking myself and not getting one in a few weeks when the price goes up 50%.
    3) I needed an excuse to pre-order a cheap SW set to get the SW poster.
    4) Figured I might as well get used to spending a bit more in TN due to the sales tax now being imposed. It is a 10% hit every time, which is maddening.

    Conclusion - From the short-term perspective, I probably shouldn't have purchased it, but it was certainly a very good strategic decision.
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  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas
    @Farmer_John

    Understand...

    1. What something cost in the past vs what it is worth now means nothing. Hard to deal with when you're emotionally invested, but I do this sort of thing in real life (non-Lego) and they are all just widgets at some point. Paying $200 delivered would have been nuts 2 months ago, today it is a screaming deal. Funny, huh? :)

    2. I understand, I'm in the same boat. I recently added them all up, I've got over 1,000 sets to sell. :(

    6. Never keep stuff from the wife, I have found that by just telling her everything, I might get the occasional eye roll, but she supports me in all things.

    Yes, you would have kicked yourself for not buying one, why do you think I bought 8? Why didn't I buy more? Honestly, the credit card I use for my Lego buying could only hold 8 due to all my other Lego buying, or I would have bought more. I just paid it off this morning, but IF is now marked as sold out again.
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  • BrickDancerBrickDancer
    My order status for the IF is showing as "Shipped" Woohoo! Lord knows I need another IF in my life, counting my lucky stars!
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  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John
    @LegoFanTexas - We also live 100% debt-free and will always strive to do so. Furthermore, we are passing that mindset on to our kids...i.e., the debtor is always a slave to the lender. There is a freedom in not owing anyone anything, and frankly that approach allows me to have dabble in legos as an enjoyable hobby-business.

    I wouldn't have purchased the IF except for the fact that me and my kids experienced building it firsthand and I can't say enough good things about it. I am confident that it will return 2X its investment within 18 months and I can't get that kind of return at a bank or in the market.

    Just checked and my IF shipped as well... If it stays sold out, this purchase will be a boon.

    By the way, which B&M store do you shop at in the metroplex? I used to live there (before they had lego stores in the state).
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  • mrfootballmrfootball
    Has the Lego 8098 Clone Turbo Tank been discontinued?
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  • tk79tk79
    Wow, it actually shipped! Big thank you to @sl592

    Great catch on your part and nice of you to share the info!
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  • sidersddsidersdd
    Woohoo! Mine shipped as well.
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  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas
    Both of my orders say "in process". They were customer service all day, I suspect due to the total dollar value being over $2K.

    But now they say in process, so maybe they will ship them, how cool would that be! :)
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  • allmybricksallmybricks
    I'll pile on too - mine shipped! I'm excited because I only had 1 and it was taunting me every day to build... Now I'll be able to build and display it without another thought!
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  • y2joshy2josh
    Mine have shipped. I'll be curious to know if yours go out, @LegoFanTexas. Like I said, when I tried something similar, they cancelled both my orders and I got a polite-ish "we appreciate your enthusiasm, but..." letter asking me not to do it again. It's great if you do get them, though.
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  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas
    I will of course update if they come or not... Only time will tell. Maybe they found a pallet or three of them, or perhaps they built more with spare parts?
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  • y2joshy2josh
    Hmmmm... the latter seems unlikely. Whatever happened, I'm glad I don't have to worry about building one for myself now.
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  • Pacific493Pacific493
    I received confirmation that three separate orders for IFs shipped, so it does appear to be for real.
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  • DavidRod8DavidRod8
    My order for two has shipped.... I tried to buy more this morning after sleeping on it but it was too late... oh well...
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  • brickupdatebrickupdate
    My order shipped as well. I'm shocked! Probably should have ordered more.
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  • momof2boys99momof2boys99
    Yeah..mine shipped too!! Thanks for posting this!!
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  • choob99choob99
    Mine still says in process, really hope I get it as I don't have one at all, wish they would have lasted til Friday so I could get a few more of them, but i'll be happy with just the one to build for myself
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  • OdinduskOdindusk
    My 40029 shipped today!!

    *grumbles something about his stupid polybag fetish*
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  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO
    My order shipped as well.

    It is possible LEGO had enough of the components (including Boxes, instructions, etc) to construct another group of sets to sell.
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  • jadeirenejadeirene
    Grrr, my order hasn't shipped yet. I hope ordering Skeleton Bowling and the PQ battle pack didn't screw up my order for the IF.
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  • gmpirategmpirate
    Wow, went to bed way to early last night and didn't see the post for IF. This morning it said "sold out". Checked back a couple hours later and it said to "call for availability". So I did and they said they showed "2" in stock. Placed the order over the phone and am currently "in process". Crossing fingers . . .
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  • sl592sl592
    It's lucky karma I have to say- back in November I ordered the IF from TRU, but they sent the black pearl by mistake and when I returned it for an exchange for the IF, TRU had sold out forever. Not happy.

    So now my IF from S@H shipped. Very happy.
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  • dk1007dk1007
    Any thoughts on the value of 10195? What will the price be in 3 months on ebay? How high can this go?
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  • brickupdatebrickupdate
    @dk1007 For the Dropship 101095 - This was a very expensive set in terms of piece count to retail price. It never seemed to be a big seller, and isn't an especially iconic ship.

    It's a very cool set though.

    I think it will rise in value, but slower than sets such as Imperial Flagship or Emerald Night that have a broader appeal. If you compare the Dropship to something similar, like the Gunship 7676, it took awhile for that to really rise in value - but it has really taken off in the past 6 months or year. MIB sets will rise much quicker than opened sets.

    The flipside of this argument: everyone hoarded Emerald Nights at $99 a pop, but few hoarded Dropships at $259. Could be a sleeper hit!
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  • Ma1234Ma1234
    @Savage_Steel, the airport line is not discontinued. It continues in 2012 except for the tanker truck. It's even in the 2012 consumer catalog:

    http://www.brickshelf.com/cgi-bin/gallery.cgi?i=5314137

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  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John
    How collectible with 7958 be since there is a new SW Advent Calendar coming out this year? The 7958 set can still be picked up below RRP, but is it a good deal, and if so, why?
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  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas
    @Farmer_John - I double it will be all that collectable. Somewhat, because of Santa Yoda, but meh, I have a bunch that I'm not waiting that long to sell.

    Since I got them for 50% off at Wally World, I'd be happy to sell them all at normal retail. :)
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  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas
    @dk1007 - to follow up on Dropship, it might well be a sleeper hit because no one was watching it.

    At $260, meh, probably not, but when it was on sale on Black Friday for 25% off, that was the time to buy a dozen of them.

    Will it get to $400? Yes, for sure. The question is, how long...

    The funny thing is, everyone keeps watching DS and FB so closely, it is easy to miss these other sets...
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  • Pacific493Pacific493
    On the 10195...I think we are going to see a significant increase in the price of this set on the secondary market for a few reasons...it is Star Wars, it is a very unique set, the vehicles appear in a number of Clone Wars storylines (and therefore are likely to have ongoing relevance in the mind of consumers), and it was often viewed as a poor value while on the market and therefore was not the focus of as much speculation as other sets of a recent vintage (IF, EN, etc.). How high its value climbs and how quickly, I couldn't say with any certainty, but IMHO it has all the makings of a set that could experience a significant value increase. There has already been one that sold for $499 on Ebay, but that is a clear outlier, and they are starting to sell reliably for $300 on Bricklink even though they only hit EOL a little over a month ago. Also, there is not a huge backsupply of them out there...there are only 88 for sale on BL, which is only slightly more than were sold on BL in the last 6 months...once those numbers dwindle to 10-20, prices tend to increase considerably.
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  • doriansdaddoriansdad
    My 5 IFs shipped as well. Thanks for the heads up in this thread. It is not often we get a legitimate second bite of the cherry from TLG.
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  • Pacific493Pacific493
    My 5 IFs shipped as well. Thanks for the heads up in this thread. It is not often we get a legitimate second bite of the cherry from TLG.
    I concur with the thanks for the heads up. I haven't seen this posted elsewhere and would have missed it if not for this thread.
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  • BrickDancerBrickDancer
    @sl592 saved the day for a lot of us, much thanks for the heads up.
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  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO
    Yes, thanks @s1592
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  • DougoutDougout
    I have to thank @s1592 as well, my order has been shipped! As for the 10195, I agree with LFT and @Pacific493. I can see it going up in value soon. It wasn't very popular, but that just means less people are hoarding it. Demand is low but supply should be even lower. I can see people could've completely overlooked this with all the modulars, IFs, Emerald Nights and other collectibles people were gathering. I would've grabbed an extra 1 or 2 if I had realized this, but I would've also gotten a single Emerald Night if I knew how expensive it would be to get one now.
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  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas
    All of my IF shipped... So they will let you order more than 5... Sweet, that is a heck of a deal! Now if they'll just STAY sold out. ;)

    If it came back, oh well, but now I have 22 of them to sell, a bit more than I need for even a Lego fleet!
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  • gmpirategmpirate
    Sweet!!! My call-in order was shipped for the IF! Wonder if I would have called back if they would still say they had two left?
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  • scratchdeskscratchdesk
    I tend to agree on the 10195. I bought one from FAO, probably the last one they had. Got 10% off and received it today. Box was smushed in and the seals popped open on it so they gave me another 15% back. Turned out to actually be 25% off their price which wasn't too bad with free 2 day shipping. We'll be putting it together tonight I think.
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  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas
    The dropship is cooler than the atot walker in my opinion.

    I would like to be able to buy a few dropships, without the walkers. I have an atte and clone tank that need transport!
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  • sl592sl592
    I'm glad I was able to contribute a little to this awesome forum.
    I'm gonna build mine btw.
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  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John
    @sl592 - You are going to have fun. The IF is a fantastic build! I actually went out and purchased a couple MIB 6239 sets to augment the IF. The IF only comes with 4 cannons, but room for 8. I already had two old 6239 sets and just had to have a complete compliment of cannons; hence, the two additional 6239 sets. You'll see what I mean when you build your IF.

    In fact, those that plan to sell their IFs would/should command a higher premium with a couple of 6239 sets tossed in to sweeten the pot. I purchased mine at Amazon for $11 each with free shipping and no taxes. FYI.
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  • bulletthelbueskybulletthelbuesky
    Irritating... I just got the IF I paid 250 shipped for on Monday, and I read this thread today and see that I'm too late.... oh well, I got my ship, and I will enjoy it... even though I paid 50 bucks more than I had to. I should be used to this by now. LOL
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  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas
    ^ Don't feel bad...

    Just today, I sold a pair of IF, for $300 each plus shipping... (two separate buyers)

    If either of them read this thread, they'll probably kick me or something...
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  • dk1007dk1007
    Thoughts on retired Ninjago dragon, 2521, 2509 and 2260? I remember last December, there were about 100 listings of 2521. Just checked today on Ebay, down to 21. Everywhere is sold out. When will the price double?
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  • Pacific493Pacific493
    Just today, I sold a pair of IF, for $300 each plus shipping... (two separate buyers)

    If either of them read this thread, they'll probably kick me or something...
    I'm surprised you're selling so soon...those prices are going to go considerably higher as the year goes on. With the ones I bought the other day, I've now got 30 and I am not going to be as hasty as I was with the Taj Mahal and Grand Carousel last year, both of which I sold right around this time last year for a similarly modest profit.
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  • doriansdaddoriansdad
    Yep I won't take a penny less than $600 each for my Flagships.
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  • DougoutDougout
    Holy crap $600? You think it'll go that high? I was thinking I would be lucky to get $500 in a few years for one. I can't say I value it much myself, I'm more of a fan of the Emerald Night. Wish I had 22, I have four to sell and any profit will go towards my fund for SW EOL'd sets.

    I also want to mention MMV stock at amazon is down to 111. My lego stores still had some so I don't know how soon this set will be discontinued
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  • y2joshy2josh
    I'm surprised you're selling so soon...those prices are going to go considerably higher as the year goes on. With the ones I bought the other day, I've now got 30 and I am not going to be as hasty as I was with the Taj Mahal and Grand Carousel last year, both of which I sold right around this time last year for a similarly modest profit.
    Depends on your definition of modest, I suppose, but doubling your money in basically two months isn't bad at all. I won't be selling mine straightaway, but I also own considerably fewer of these than @LegoFanTexas.
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  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John
    My IF was delivered today in perfect condition. Yes...I know it will go up, but still mixed feelings on the purchase since funds are limited. I just reviewed Brickset's list of all the new sets that are supposed to be released this year and I may have to sell the IF to get some of those. There's going to be some really sweet sets out in the next 6-8 months!
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