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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • I don't know really. I hope all the HP last a while so I can grab more. My local stores had tons of castles and a bunch of Diagon Alleys last week. I have no idea how many they are really selling or how many they get in each week. All I can do is speculate from limited info.

    One manager that's almost always working when I visit my local store said he expected it to sell out faster than most HP. I've also watched the building of it and seen it finished and from what I can tell it is a very detailed set. The final reason I think it'll be gone soon is because it appears to be selling well online.

    I don't monitor all online retailers, but I do check up on some sets (mostly using amazon). As of tonight it is not available on target, amazon or toysrus anymore. It is also "out of stock" at lego. These are the reasons I think it will sell fast and be worth a lot on the aftermarket. Its just my opinion though so I could be wrong.
  • Not that it necessarily means anything, but Downtown Disney Lego is out of MMV for the first time in months. I was told once by a prior manager that this store gets preferential shipments and was number one or two in the country.
  • It's the second wave of Walmart stuff that did me in. I'm trying to cut down on eating. Haha!
    Food is overrated, Diagon Alley is underrated.
  • Food is overrated, Diagon Alley is underrated.
    It's funny because it's true!
  • @gmpirate there was a special offer on amazon.it where the shuttles were being sold at 186E/155£ (90£ less than RRP!). So I went ahead and ordered two. They should arrive either today or tomorrow... There was quite a popular thread in the 'Shopping elsewhere' forum.
  • @intromission Diagon Alley should be available thru 2013, as long as supplies last of course. Around June 2013 you can start getting jumpy.
  • MMV at amazon.com is down to $89.xx
  • wow $89 and 400 units in stock. I knew I should've waited to buy the five I have until now. I would've saved enough to buy a hogwarts castle! I wonder why they would reduce the price like that if its still selling so well.
  • Impossible to understand pricing. Whether it be Amazon, WM, Target, and especially TRU. Speaking of Amazon, I got the new TIE Fighter 9492 for $41.49 yesterday. The price dropped for just a few hours I think. I saw the price, thought about it for a few minutes and snagged it before it changed. Amazing price for a brand new, just out, SW set. And, now the price is $58.33 and is sold by a 3rd party! So, Amazon ran it at a pretty big discount although they knew they had limited quantities. Why? Well, probably only a few people at Amazon know. But, I will take a guess... I could easily be wrong, but I think Amazon marks prices down on certain things at certain times as a 'reward' to diligent customers who spot such bargains. Course, since all of their prices are electronic, all they have to do is enter a new price into the database and it is instantly changed. And, that could even occur automatically based on time or inventory.

    All I know is that if you find a great price on Amazon you had best jump on it, because it may only be there for a few days, few hours, even maybe a few minutes or seconds. Yup, even just a few seconds on some of their Lightning Deals.
  • ^Definitely true. Amazon is so weird. Got a few UCS shuttles when they went to $180 around Christmas (they were damaged). The deals do come and go. I missed out on a video game around christmas that was discounted 33%, but then I found a link to it on google locking me into the sale price about a day after the sale ended. I wonder how long the $89 MMV will last. I'm sure it won't go any lower and I bet it is something like a discount for loyal customers.
  • Sorry if an opinion has already been given, but since we're on the topic of the MMV... do you think it will be retired soon? I see that it has been out since Dec '08.
  • OK, I didn't want to wait too long for an answer. :-) I went ahead and ordered 1 on Amazon. Looks like a good price, regardless of when the set is retired. Now, should I get a few more at this price? Or, do you think will S@H mark the remaining sets down when its retired? (Will never forget that they did that with the UCS Falcon with a limit of 2 per order and I got 2 of them. They were gone before the day's end.)
  • edited February 2012
    MMV price went to $89 on Amazon because Walmart.com has it at $89 and in stock. Very simple to understand. I actually cancelled my MMV order from Amazon 2 days before the price drop because I saw the walmart price and complain. Now they drop price and I will buy it again.
  • ^^$90 is a good price, and you most likely are not going to find it for much less anywhere. Even if S@H does discount it, which I don't see them doing, I don't see them discounting by very much either. I say buy them now. $90 + no tax (for some), no shipping = good buy for sure. Just my opinion.
  • Yea, I think MMV is gone soon. I got mine mostly because I think it will go very good with LOTR and it seems their aren't many big LOTR sets set to be released. I would buy a few from amazon at this price if you don't have some already. If S@H do discount it you will still have to pay shipping and tax like FatMatt said.
  • Thanks to @dk1007 @FatMatt and @Dougout I got 2 more based on your recommendations. It has taken me a while to learn this, but buying as close to retirement as possible and at a discount (however much) is the way to buy LEGOS for resale later. I have tons of sets I bought shortly after they came out, then have 'sat' on them for years waiting for them to retire. Luke's Landspeeder (have 24) and the DS are two examples. I would have thought both sets would have been retired long ago. Especially the LS since it is a WM exclusive. I figured it for less than 12 months. Shows how much I know. :-)
  • I could get ninjago fire temple for 58EUR from local shop, would it have any resale value?
  • @rasmustali I definitely would at that price, I can't find them at RRP even anymore. I think it will be a good investment since Ninjago is going strong and that's the biggest set for the theme. Looks great too!
  • There are some other ninjagos as well, but it seems they arent as good of a deal as the fire temple.
    http://www.rekato.ee/index.php?page=78&group_id=249&cn=1
    Also some star wars sets are on sale (1 page back), but only slave I offer seems good enough to buy.
  • MMV is due to go December this year, as long as supplies last of course. It will most likely be 25% off for Black Friday in the USA at Lego stores. TRU should also have it on sale B1G1 b4 too long....wait for a mastercard discount on top and load up then.
  • I have been reading this thread since sometime now and beginning to understand a bit when to buy which set and when to sell or when is the best time to sell. So do you think it would be a good idea for someone from the secondary market to invest and keep the sets until they are retired and then sell for a good return? and with logistics involved which are not cheap. Any suggestions? Example in Exclusive set, to buy a GE or FB right now, minimum price with shipping is 200 USD. So does it sound like a good idea?
  • only if you have a local market. If you dont have a local market then you need to look at which countries youll sell to and work out if those countries can get it anywhere cheaper. My guess is that you'll be competing globally, and against people who picked them up at half or 2/3 the price, so not worth it.
  • Do you think they will discount the Fire Brigade by maybe $10-15 or more?
  • Well, I am not that experienced in selling retired sets. My last retired set I sold was the 7886 The Batcycle: Harley Quinn's Hammer Truck. Sold it to someone in Russia for 225 USD with shipping. Originally paid 30-40 USD and had it with me for 2 years. So been thinking about doing this often, but being in the secondary market I am not sure. We do not have a local market so I will have to rely on Bricklink or Ebay.
  • @doriansdad Why do you think Diagon Alley will last thru 2013 and then MMV till December? Do you have inside information or something? lol
  • MMV is going pretty quickly on Amazon. It'll be gone by the weekend at this rate (whether or not it gets restocked, though...).
  • at 10% off, it is going much faster than it did before... Just picked up 5 more, just in case it is going...

    Amazon might well restock, but this is a set that will go to $300 in the aftermarket pretty quickly I think...

    At $90, it is 5.6 cents a part... retired sets like this seem to hit about 20 cents a part without too much trouble (always exceptions of course). At 20 cents a part, that is $320, so allowing for how many people are buying it, I'll call it at $300 within 6 months of retirement, less if it is near Christmas.
  • MMV is going quickly because of @LegoFanTexas! :)

    I have 3 of this set, and I really need more. I have dreamed about opening a bunch of them up to make a Harry Potter village or Lord of the RIngs village. SO many uses for this set.
  • edited February 2012
    this is a set that will go to $300 in the aftermarket pretty quickly I think.
    If it tops $200 (ave sale value) within 2 years I'll eat my hat. (and dont forget a lot of that goes to sales fees etc)
    Its a good 5-10 yr investment though IMO
    I have dreamed about opening a bunch of them up
    Yes, that is the problem with this set, its great for parts too.

  • edited February 2012
    It's a perfect set for a LOTR Brandywine. Unless TLG does a Brandywine set (and even if they do), the MMV will tie in perfectly. Plus this set has a very high customer review no matter where you look (Brickset, Amazon, Lego, etc.). It should easily hit and surpass $200 IMO.
  • I agree but I think its overstocked in the aftermarket.

  • what do you guys think about "battle of endor" set, and does anyone know if its going to be discontinued anytime soon
  • Yes, I do think that there are more MMVs in closets out there than other sets, such as Imperial Flagship, Green Grocer, Taj Mahal, Carousel, etc.

    But... I do think it is a special set. I won't pretend to know how high it will rise, or how quickly. We watched Emerald Night sell out in a similar fashion on this forum in December, and are now watching it rise pretty quickly in price on the aftermarket. I think these $100 sets are a more easy buy-in with a larger potential market of people to purchase them on the aftermarket at $150 or $175.

    Something like Imperial Flagship starts at $170 and then doubles - so few can afford $300 sets.

    @rasmustali As for Battle of Endor - I don't have high hopes for it. It's a fine set, but it's one standout feature was all the minifigs. With the new Endor battle pack, many of the hottest minifigs in this set are now VERY common. Instead of being worth $7-8 each, the Endor troopers are now going to be worth $3 or so. They really gutted the value of the larger set.
  • edited February 2012
    If I wanted to buy an EN for £120, I know places I could do this any time. It did have a peak at about £200 but it's dipped back due to large stock volumes and competition in the after market. At £120, sellers are (after costs) only making the type of profit you could expect from a decent city set.

    And I believe there are a lot more MMVs out there than ENs
  • edited February 2012
    I think you guys saw a bigger spike over in the UK than we saw in the US. EN spiked to $150 after they sold out and have been steadily climbing to $170-180 since.

    I've said it in the past though...as far as the MMV, I think it's been out too long and has a saturated market to climb very fast. jmo of course.
  • another question, buy imperial shuttles or death stars? death star seems to have been out forever, but no one says that IS cant be the same
  • MMV is going very quickly on Amazon - I'd imagine it sells out by the end of the day. Of course - they could get another shipment of 5,000 units. Who knows - that is the fun of this! :)

    @rasmustali Good question. For those making the point here that MMV has been out to long to rise in value quickly, the Death Star has been out just as long - or longer I believe. I think it too is a special set, and will be a good investment if you can handle the carrying costs.

    As for Imperial Shuttle - that depends on a lot of things. Beautiful set - I think it is a good investment. I have two, I plan on building one soon.
  • edited February 2012
    @Dougout, official retirement dates from Lego according to another thread for 2012:

    10193 medieval market village december 2012
    10197 fire brigade december 2012
    10216 winter village bakery december 2012

    This is not all inclusive but TLG will no longer be selling these sets after these dates. MMV and FB will most likely be on sale this Black Friday in the USA.
  • For those that need MMV now Target also has them $90 shipped free online. Should be a few 10% off codes flying around and stack your redcard as well.
  • Except of course Lego doesn't publish "official retirement dates" for anything... So those are guesses at best...

    They may be right, or they might be the firm end of sales, just like Green Grocer was on "sale", after Christmas a year ago, but really sold out LONG before then...

    Still, since I've now seen a new batch number (50R1), they might well be making more of them...

    The question I would ask is... Are we really going to see 4 modulars at once? We could, Lego can do whatever it wants, but with Town Hall coming out soon... sheesh! :)
  • edited February 2012
    this is a set that will go to $300 in the aftermarket pretty quickly I think.

    If it tops $200 (ave sale value) within 2 years I'll eat my hat. (and dont forget a lot of that goes to sales fees etc)
    Its a good 5-10 yr investment though IMO
    I'll hold you to that! Everyone, hat eating party at Si's house... ;)

    In my personal opinion, almost no Lego is a good 5-10 year investment... The good money seems to be made in the first few months, or first year, with only a few rare exceptions...

    EN has doubled in price since retirement, I bought a bunch of them for $90 each from Amazon, and a bunch more for even less from the Lego store on Brick Friday... I've sold a few at $190, that is a heck of a return for 2 months.

    I think I'll sell the rest next Christmas for $300... maybe more... Why not sell all now for $190? Fees, shipping, and time are all the enemy here... From a % return on investment, now is the time to sell, but my time is limited and the deals to replace this one are limited.

    MMV is underpriced, as EN was, to the rest of the Lego market... Look at Joust, fewer parts and fewer interesting parts, for more money... Makes MMV the "deal" right now...

    MMV should, on that basis alone, be $149, so it will go to that almost instantly... The people who "waited", will see it jump up to $125 or so and buy quickly, clearing that stock out, and up it will go. The quick sellers will dump at $149, perhaps to other sellers who go "oh gosh, this will be $300 so I better buy at $149!", and up it goes to $200...

    Soo.... Hat eating party at your place, this time next year? ;P

    All of the above is just my opinion, I could be flat wrong, it is just the view I see in the market. Since we all stand in different locations, we all have different views, and that is ok. I've been wrong for sure... I have about 40 Offroad Power stocked away, was sure that one was going to jump in the aftermarket, but it hasn't and sales are slow. It has over a thousand parts, makes good vehicle models, so not sure why... Thankfully I bought most of them for under $50 each, so not the end of the world. ;)

    Maybe the fact that I was ABLE to buy them for so cheap, explains the price? I'm not as convinced as I once was that "clearance" and "sale" items are such a deal. Maybe sale items, since EN and IF were "sale" items... But the clearance stuff? Perhaps not...

  • edited February 2012
    ^^ ok , ok, I'll start picking up more MMV's.

    As far as FB's go, I'm not so hot on. I definitely believe they will do well "eventually". As more people get into the modulars they will want to go back and get it but don't get the feeling it's as popular as others. Is it a sure bet? Probably as good as it gets but there are probably faster appreciating sets to get. I'm buying them yes, but not like we were buying EN's last year. They can very easily be here through the holidays. From my local experience, a good time to go crazy is when S&H sells out. My B&M's normally will continue to get them for awhile.

    Well, just my "current" thoughts. I do enjoy hearing different perspectives here. Cracks me up sometimes as we are just talking about "Lego". Can you imagine if we could buy puts and calls on this stuff?!?!
  • I'd love to work in a Lego stock exchange :)
  • edited February 2012
    MMV should, on that basis alone, be $149, so it will go to that almost instantly...
    The MMV is one of Legos best sets Lego has ever offered in my opinion, and is arguably the best of the Kingdoms/Castle theme. Now that you mention it, the MMV does remind me of the EN for a few reasons:

    1) They are both classic lego sets.
    2) They are in the sweet spot regarding price (not too high, not too low).
    3) They both lend themselves well as complimentary sets to other themes (e.g., in the case of MMV, the LOTR theme, etc.).
    4) Both sets are highly rated in all the various outlets (Lego, Amazon, TRU, etc.). Highly rated sets will almost always experience significant appreciation.
    5) Yes...it's been around awhile, but so was the EN and look at what happened to its price.

    In fact, I'm going to the AMAZON right now to get another one while it is so reasonably priced...

    YC fixed the river :o)
  • @Dougout, official retirement dates from Lego according to another thread for 2012:
    This is not all inclusive but TLG will no longer be selling these sets after these dates.
    I thought we took that silly thread out back to the woodshed...? :o)

  • edited February 2012
    I hope there is not a bubble getting created in people buying lego sets for resale (unlikely I know, but nothing stays the same for ever). I actually think there is going to be a load of MMV and FB on the secondary market. I havn't bought the FB yet, but I am relaxed about what I might have to pay if I don't get around to buying it and then decide I want it and have to look to the secondary market. I am pretty certain I will be able to get it for under £150 for at least the first year after retirement.

    The Death Star though is a different kettle of fish and will be a certainty to increase, as its just so inpractical to store and prohibitively expensive for the average person to tuck away.

    Emerald Night is a funny one. It rocketed initially here in the UK, but seems to be falling back again now.

    I think that somewhere down the line a smaller or mid sized set will surprise us all and be really hot on the secondary market, as it does seem that everybody concentrates on the larger sets.

    I am not a reseller myself, but I watch this area with great interest, as would love the idea of a bricklink store one day (if I could find the time!!!).
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