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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • Excavator is the flagship Technic set that is due to EOL next.
  • edited February 2012
    I partially agree with @LFT...I don't think there's anything to worry about now, but I think it will be gone next year at the latest. I base my assumptions on the typical longevity of a Technic set and not the Unimog in particular. The Race Truck and Tractor with Log Loader lasted about 2 years. The Unimog came out around mid-2011, so should be around until mid-2013.

    If you want to worry about a good Technic set going away, you may want to consider the motorized excavator, which came out in mid-2010.

    @Odindusk - You are ahead of me.... ;-)
  • ^ it shows up NLA 2/26/12 here on bricklink for US S@H. Not sure if that is right or not though.
  • ^^ Only thing I'd add to that is it ought to be noted that the Unimog being licensed may EOL sooner rather than later. That's not to say it'll go tomorrow, but rather it shouldn't be assumed that it will follow the usual course of a Technic set. It's not too often TLG get together with Mercedes, so who knows what license trend they'll follow.
  • Thank you for you input. From what I can tell Technic sets usually last a year and half to two, right? So in that case this set still has a good year left.
  • Unimog also seems to sell well. It is out of stock as often as it is in stock at my local Lego store, and it is back-ordered often on S@H, and I've never seen Amazon carry it.

    So either Lego makes very few of them, or they are selling all they can make.
  • 7936 certainly isn't the best train crossing compared to the other crossings LEGO has produced over the years. IMO, 7866 is one of the best, although I never got any 12V trains, this one is remote controlled and it looks great.
    Well train crossing is a relative term to LEGO apparently because all it looked like to me was a repair vehicle sets, nice sets though.. Glad I got a few at S@H.. but I did not think they'd sell out though..

    I would also say to those looking for them to check TRU.com and B&M stores for them as they did have them at stores as well.


  • I've never been too interested in going down the reseller road, but I would like to improve my trading list and possibly have some rare bits and pieces on it a few years down the line. In Tesco today I saw some sets on clearance, including:

    4866 - Knight Bus (€12.00)
    8089 - Hoth Wampa Cave (€22.00)
    7051 - Tripod Invader (€9.00)

    The Knight Bus in particular caught my eye, that's great value. Anyone think there's value in those three for €43? I have all three as well, which would remove the temptation to build (which is why I don't buy to resell in the first place, I can't sit on sets).
  • edited February 2012
    Unimog also seems to sell well. It is out of stock as often as it is in stock at my local Lego store, and it is back-ordered often on S@H, and I've never seen Amazon carry it. So either Lego makes very few of them, or they are selling all they can make.
    I really like the set and couldn't help getting a couple at TRU's recent BOGO sale (that, and the fact that it's all there was left). I believe it will be a great aftermarket performer when that time arrives.
  • edited February 2012
    The Knight Bus in particular caught my eye, that's great value.
    Yes...12 euros is a great deal for the KB, and the KB will perform well in the aftermarket. I don't imagine there will be another one released for awhile, and HP sets will all likely do well in general.
  • There are 26 MMVs available from Amazon at $100. FYI...
  • edited February 2012
    I really like the set and couldn't help getting a couple at TRU's recent BOGO sale (that, and the fact that it's all there was left). I believe it will be a great aftermarket performer when that time arrives.
    The Unimog really caught my eye being a flagship Technic set and a licensed product. There is a fanatical fanbase for the real ones out in the wild and so I have high hopes for this set.

    I bought one at €135 from Amazon and am toying with the idea of picking up another if I find as keen a price again.

  • edited February 2012
    ^^ 26 MMV's? Wonder how long they will last? Looks like you are limited to 5.

    ^ The Unimog is a great set. I got 2 during BOGO at TRU. Just walked into the store and there they were. They only had 2 and they were banded together, so I HAD to get both of them. Right? I built one during Christmas. Really enjoyed the build. Neat to play with. And, it is HUGE. I think it is the largest Technic set ever. I think it will definitely be a good investment, especially if you can get it on sale and relatively close to it being EOL'd.
  • The Knight Bus might be one of the largest declines in price I've seen version 1 to version 2. I sold a couple of version 1 buses (aftermarket) for $100+. Once version 2 came out - that absolutely plummeted.

    I would say the "regular" Millennium Falcons w/ figs have suffered the same fate.
  • So, where's the most sensible and economical place for me to get an Imperial Flagship? I suppose the leading options would be to use either ebay (which requires luck because the prices are often rich) or Bricklink for a bit over €200.

    Not the US sadly because once shipping and different kinds of importation taxes and fees are included, the cost is usually well over those available in the EU. Cheers.
  • There are 26 MMVs available from Amazon at $100. FYI...
    They had fewer overnight... I think they are messing with the numbers, because I've seen this number go up and down for the past two days...
  • As a side note, FB on Amazon is down to 16 copies left, but it does say more are on the way...
  • Hmmmm, 15 copies of FB and MMV has been fluctuating? Sounds like amazon is playing with the numbers a little bit. They allow you to add 999 FBs, but only have 15 in stock? Seems like they almost don't want ppl to know their stock. I just called my local lego store, btw, and they have plenty of FBs. I think it will go in a couple months and not yet, but maybe if everyone panics and buys up the FBs like they did MMV from amazon it will seem like it is going.
  • I would say the "regular" Millennium Falcons w/ figs have suffered the same fate.
    Yes, but once the current version is retired there will probably be 2-3 years before the next one comes out. And during those years you will be able to sell your saved Falcons for a nice mark up.

  • Holy crap. I was terrified when I read that there were only 15 FBs left. But I am still able to add 999 to my cart. I bet Amazon is doing to so the customers will purchase the item thinking it will be ELO'd. Anyone know if there will be Free Shipping on S@H during the double VIP promo?
  • @prevere,

    On the Knight Bus, I think it might also be because the latest one is a big improvement.

    rich
  • edited February 2012
    I've got a few KBs, but do not plan to build them. Just no interest there.

    I do want to build the Unimog with my kids...It just looks awesome! I would buy another if I could get it for 135 euros too.

    I have one FB, but would like to pick up another if I can get it for a reasonable price. If I have to purchase it from S@H, there's no way I won't purchase it unless I get double VIP AND free shipping. Even doing that, I break even by purchasing at list price from Amazon due to the taxes that S@H adds. Now that I think of it, my CC has a deal during the first quarter with Amazon to get 5% back on purchases. So it is still a better deal (by $7.50) purchasing it at Amazon for list. My big concern with buying it from Amazon is getting the 39R1 run...
  • @Farmer_John: I just got 2 FB's from Amazon and were received yesterday. Both were 32R1, hope that eases the concern if only by a little.
  • @BrickDancer - Thank you!!! I will go ahead and pull the trigger on one.
  • Only 12 left in stock now. I'm starting to wonder if this inventory number might actually be true.
  • I would say the "regular" Millennium Falcons w/ figs have suffered the same fate.


    Yes, but once the current version is retired there will probably be 2-3 years before the next one comes out. And during those years you will be able to sell your saved Falcons for a nice mark up.

    Yeah, that's a pretty good point. And your comment works for the AT-AT as well.
  • I would say the "regular" Millennium Falcons w/ figs have suffered the same fate.


    Yes, but once the current version is retired there will probably be 2-3 years before the next one comes out. And during those years you will be able to sell your saved Falcons for a nice mark up.



    Yeah, that's a pretty good point. And your comment works for the AT-AT as well.
    rinse and repeat :) AT-TE, Gunship, next Sail Barge ;)
  • Holy crap. I was terrified when I read that there were only 15 FBs left. But I am still able to add 999 to my cart. I bet Amazon is doing to so the customers will purchase the item thinking it will be ELO'd. Anyone know if there will be Free Shipping on S@H during the double VIP promo?
    I love Electric Light Orchestra!

    Anywho... this same thing happened with the IF. Amazon said they only had 'x' in stock, but you could still add 999 to your cart. If they say more are on the way, though... it's hard to say. I'd pull the trigger, myself. Especially if you collect modulars.
  • Have there been any recent cases where Amazon/Target stocks have dried up online prior to S@H discontinuing a set? I've passively read this thread over the past few months with folks seemingly paying a lot of attention to Amazon stock numbers as a portent of a set selling out, but never really heard of a case of using the Amazon data to forecast the S@H end-of-life. On the contrary, I've only seen the opposite, with EN and the IF both having stock remaining at Amazon and Target after S@H sold out.

    Last year I got wrapped up in the panic of watching Amazon counts for the Death Star amidst anticipation of it being EOL'd and I ended up buying a few that have been acting in the role of paperweights for almost a year now...at some point a 3rd party seller marked it as "Discontinued by manufacturer: yes" on the Amazon item description page and I think that's what set me off. However, in general I don't know that Amazon stocking numbers correlate any more to the end of life of a set than Lego Yoda seeing his shadow and therefore we get 6 more months of MMV lifespan.
  • edited February 2012
    ^One example is Obi-Wan's Starfighter. It went out of stock at Amazon, but is still selling at a discount through S@H. Maybe even Amazon doesn't like the set and is glad to be rid of it. ;-)

    Went ahead and picked up the FB. I doubt it will ever be discounted again before it is EOL'd. Amazon said 4 left with more on the way after I purchased.

    I definitely plan to get the TH. I will probably wait until I can get the best deal possible and then grab two. My wife even wants to help me build that one, only with Christmas decorations to go with her Winter sets.
  • I'm surprised that they sold 15 FB's in a matter of time. They are at 1 left. I'm still not going to pull the trigger, I'm not convinced that this is the real stock #.
  • However, in general I don't know that Amazon stocking numbers correlate any more to the end of life of a set than Lego Yoda seeing his shadow and therefore we get 6 more months of MMV lifespan.
    This is awesome. ++
  • edited February 2012
    Oh man, it is actually true. The FB is now only available from a 3rd part re seller. Damn.
  • Yes, but you don't know that they won't get 10,000 more in next week... Amazon has sold out of this set multiple times over the past 6 months, only to get it right back in stock.

    You can also order from S@H, double VIP points are coming on Thursday, plus if you have a local Lego store, they will have it in stock, and if not, they'll order it for you from S@H, free shipping to boot.
  • That is what I'm hoping for. But the is a very slim chance this will happen since it is almost the end of the line for this set, I don't see LEGO having 10,000 more of these sitting in their warehouse. I was waiting to see if S@H would offer Free shipping with double vip, so I just resisted to purchase it tonight. And it is lame that I don't have a LEGO store near me, although one is coming soon.
  • edited February 2012
    Just consider that the price of buying from S@H right now is a whole lot cheaper than it will cost to buy off Amazon or eBay once this set is retired. :)

    As for Lego having 10,000 copies of this set, don't underestimate the numbers produced, 10,000 may sound like a lot, but worldwide, it really isn't. That is only $1.5 Million worth of sets at retail prices, a drop in the bucket compared to the billions of dollars worth of Lego sold every year.
  • I really think Amazon has been doctoring numbers in their supplies for some time.
    I'm guessing mostly due to people using the cart trick to determine whether to buy or not because, as LFT said, these numbers tend to go up and down at the drop of a hat.
  • ^Diagon Alley is another recent example of this. According to their cart count, they had over a thousand of this set on Sunday. Today they are sold out. I find it highly improbable that they burned through that many Diagon Alleys in less than three days.
  • I think we all agree that the amazon cart numbers are unreliable so who cares what the number is?!
  • I think the point is that last year, I think Amazon cart numbers were reliable, I think this is a recent thing...
  • Anyone have an opinion on those Lego Signature Minifigure Towels? They were $14.99RRP. I have 20+ of them.
  • ^^ FB will be clearanced on BF in the USA (along with MMV). It is the least desirable of all the modulars. If you are into reselling modulars keep your powder dry for GE....FB is a dog comparatively. The end of 2013 is much more interesting for resellers IMO (GE, Diagon Alley, Tower Bridge, Maersk Train). You will want a boatload of spare cash in 18 months for that lineup....plan accordingly.
    @doriansdad = Where do you get your information from? You provide it with such certainty, I'm just curious. If I recall correctly (I probably don't) you got some right, some wrong around BF (I think you mentioned retirement of some architecture sets that are still around).

    I'm most interested in your thoughts on DA as I was assuming it would linger for a while after the HP main line EOL this summer, but never would have thought DA would stick around until the end of 2013. Just having a single set from a theme for 18 months after the theme was EOL'd just seems strange to me.

    Thanks.
  • edited February 2012
    @neiname - We bought a couple of the towels also and used them as Christmas gifts to our kids. I never thought of them as collectible, but I can see how they could be.

    @avoiceoreason - I agree with your sentiments on the DA. I don't see it being around for 18 months after HP is gone either. I guess it could be, but it is kind of odd.
  • edited February 2012

    @doriansdad = Where do you get your information from? You provide it with such certainty, I'm just curious. If I recall correctly (I probably don't) you got some right, some wrong around BF (I think you mentioned retirement of some architecture sets that are still around).
    I'm fairly sure he's basing his info off the highly-unofficial EOL/end date list that gets linked to every so often.
  • Even if he has the "inside scoop", nothing prevents TLG from changing their minds...

    They end when they end, because of the flexible way they make sets, they can start, stop, restart, most sets any time they like.
  • ^ i.e. MMV
    But this had the Kingdoms line that it could link to, and with the joust set out, they both might explain the other's existence for another year or so.

    But with DA it just seems random as it wouldn't have any companion set/theme to be linked to. If it were around at Christmas, you'd have kids asking their parents for HP Legos and the parents would be stuck with buying only this one, high priced set, or nothing at all (excluding the aftermarket route). And this isn't like it's geared only towards adults like maybe a Tower Bridge or something. DA has play value and kids like it as much as anyone else. You would think you would want some companion sets to share shelf space with it.

    Maybe end of 2013 is right, who knows, but I'd be surprised. MMV is the only set I know of that might be precedent for this, but as I mentioned above, it at least had some rationale.
  • Interesting thought...

    Motorized Excavator... Has a similar number of parts, and similar power functions to 8275 - Motorized Bulldozer, a set that costs $500+ on eBay and Amazon...

    Will we see ME rise to that price level?

  • I'm fairly sure he's basing his info off the highly-unofficial EOL/end date list that gets linked to every so often.
    I must have missed this link somewhere along the way. Care to share??? :)
  • MMV, on a price basis, either needs a price hike, or needs to retire... I always saw Joust as the replacement for MMV, but both are still here, so what the heck do I know. :)

    Joust is fewer parts, for 20% more money, so it made sense. At $99, MMV seems like an amazing buy for 1,600 parts. Ok, I'll grant you, they are small parts, but it does come with a lot of complex molds, the chickens, cows, horse, minifigs, etc. all can't be cheap to make, can they?
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