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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • prevereprevere
    Right - I'm sure the topic's been covered before.
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  • mathewmathew
    Grand Emporium. Reason being that I think it is going to be discontinued soon and that it will be the last $150 "corner" modular.
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  • OdinduskOdindusk
    GE being discontinued soon would break modular retirement patterns. As far as we know it's not due to leave the shelves until sometime in 2013. Though anything's possible, of course.
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  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas
    I would be surprised if TLG doesn't have another "corner" ready to go in 2013 to replace GE.
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  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP
    IMO I think LEGO would only release max. 4 corner buildings.
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  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John
    edited March 2012
    Speaking of the GE, I may have to grab one. I do like the set and want to get one to build before it's gone.

    Tonight, I opened the Fire Brigade set I purchased from Amazon (39R1) last week. It was missing at least one bag of pieces. I called TLG and the bag is now on the way from Denmark. Unfortunately, it will take a couple weeks to get here. What a way to EOL a set...missing a bag of pieces. Hopefully, they fired the computer responsible for the mix-up.

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  • FatMattFatMatt
    edited March 2012
    @LegobrandonCP
    You must own a CC:)

    @Farmer_John
    Glad to hear you were able to get it taken care of.
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  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO
    edited March 2012
    To recap.
    Fire Brigade first, GE next, PS, then Town hall.
    Needless to say 3 of these 4 will not retire soon.
    FB will most likely retire at some point this year The guess is around summer, but more than likely by this Fall (around Brick Friday I'm guessing) at the latest.
    GE will retire sometime end of this year or next year as well, Pet shop year after, etc.
    Each Mod usually lasts about 2-3 (well now 3) years before a discontinue.
    So if you 'must' buy one now then Id say pick the FB Even if it does not really do anything for you. That way you do not have buyer's regret when it is 300 bucks. The worse case is you really do not like it and turn around and sell it to buy one (possibly two) other mods.
    The disclaimer is this is all educated guessing, not fact.

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  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP
    @LegobrandonCP
    You must own a CC:)

    @Farmer_John
    Glad to hear you were able to get it taken care of.
    I wish. I just bought my first modular this week, the FB.
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  • y2joshy2josh
    GE being discontinued soon would break modular retirement patterns. As far as we know it's not due to leave the shelves until sometime in 2013. Though anything's possible, of course.
    Hasn't Fire Brigade NOT being discontinued yet already broken retirement patterns?
    IMO I think LEGO would only release max. 4 corner buildings.
    I hope this isn't the case. I've said it elsewhere, but to me, Cafe Corner is an eyesore and I'd like nothing better than to be able to get rid of it.
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  • OdinduskOdindusk
    Hasn't Fire Brigade NOT being discontinued yet already broken retirement patterns?
    Maybe in terms of expected retirement month (it's late), but I'm still 99% sure it will be the next modular to go.

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  • y2joshy2josh
    ^Got it. I misunderstood what you were saying. My mistake.

    And in that case, I completely agree. I'll be astonished if GE or PS drop before FB.
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  • dougtsdougts
    I would be surprised if TLG doesn't have another "corner" ready to go in 2013 to replace GE.
    the pattern would indicate corner next:
    2007 corner- CC
    2008 inside - GG
    2009 inside - FB
    2010 corner - GE
    2011 inside - PS
    2012 inside - TH

    continuing the 1-2-1-2-1-2... pattern, corner should be up next.
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  • dougtsdougts
    IMO I think LEGO would only release max. 4 corner buildings.
    why? the 5th corner would seem to be due out in 2019, a full 12 years after the first one. If the modular line is still going at that time, it's a safe bet that there will be MANY modular owners who don't have the 12-year old CC by that time. Why wouldn't they just keep churning them out as long as the market is there? as long as they are still selling, they arent' just going to end the line becuase they filled up some fictional block.

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  • SupersympaSupersympa
    Looks like 10197 Fire Brigade is out of stock at S@H!! no stocks on Amazon Europe....
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  • roxioroxio
    Still in stock UK S@H
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  • mobimobi
    Do only the Star Wars and modular building sets appreciate?

    What about Technic sets? I've seen some of those advertized for crazy prices in Ebay and elsewhere. But I wonder how many people actually buy them at those prices!
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  • roxioroxio
    Don't use current listings as a guide for market price, use completed (sold) listings
    E.g. try this with 8880 and see the differences
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  • cloaked7cloaked7
    edited March 2012
    ^^ @mobi Check out set 8275 (motorized bulldozer) on eBay. Retailed for $150 in '07-'08, selling for $500 now. A good ROI for 4-5 years. I would like to see my IRA triple in value that quickly. :-) And, if a person got it on sale near the EOL, even better.
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  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John
    edited March 2012
    @cloaked - I purchased a couple Front Loaders (8265) for about $33 each during the BF sale a couple years ago, and have been sitting on them since. I am really, really tempted to build one (and may at some point). The larger technic sets do tend to do well over time...
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  • cloaked7cloaked7
    ^ Awesome @Farmer_John I have 3 of them, and like you are sitting on them. They will just go up and up. They didn't seem to be available for very long. I got mine at TRU during a B2G1F sale, so I got mine for $53. $33 is an above awesome deal on what will surely be a huge money maker, you were very fortunate.

    I am going to build one of my 3. Just too great of a model. If I want to sell it later it will still get close to a NIB price since I will keep the box and instructions. So, why not build one of them?

    Also, Technic sets don't grow old, like some branded sets. On some sets the popularity is driven by cartoons, movies, etc. And, when those end so does a lot of the demand. Not so with Technic construction sets. I think the only thing that hurts them is the release of an upgraded set. Which for the front end loader shouldn't be an issue any time soon.
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  • mobimobi
    Technic sets typically have 20+ years life span. But electronics bits are bit dodgy. Motors, sensors and wires may fail after 5-7 years.
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  • cloaked7cloaked7
    ^ Good point. Something to consider for sets that have power functions, etc. Which some trains also have.
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  • mobimobi
    edited March 2012
    And when Lego brings out newer motors, they changes the shape/size so that these are no longer compatible with older motorized sets!
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  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John
    I am going to build one of my 3. Just too great of a model. If I want to sell it later it will still get close to a NIB price since I will keep the box and instructions. So, why not build one of them?
    ^My thoughts exactly...

    At the beginning of the BF sale a couple years ago, TLG reduced the Front Loader down to about 40% of RRP ($32, I believe). Needless to say, it sold out within 15 minutes of the beginning of the BF sale. Those who grabbed a ton had their orders cancelled, but I chose not to be greedy and just grabbed two and my order was left intact. I think they meant to reduce it to 60% of RRP, but by the time they discovered it the sets were basically gone. The boxes they came in are huge!

    The Unimog will be a great aftermarket set when it is finally EOL'd. It seems like a difficult set to find (especially on sale). Plus, it is the largest Technic set to date.

    @mobi - I thought TLG required that all designs be compatible with the 2x4 brick (including the motors)?
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  • cloaked7cloaked7
    ^ Right on about the Unimog. I have 3 or 4 (need to check my spreadsheet) and have built 1. Definitely had to build it. I got all mine BOGO. I just get them as I can on sale. May have to keep them awhile, but that's OK. Never know when certain sets will just be EOL'd and immediately hard to get.
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  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas
    ^ Due to the part count on Unimog alone, it should do well when retired.

    Of course, since "everyone" knows that, maybe it won't. :)

    But as you say, being the largest part count Technic set ever won't hurt one little bit. The price per part is ok (but not actually that great considering the huge number of small parts), but it will still do well I think.
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  • cloaked7cloaked7
    edited March 2012
    Needless to say, it sold out within 15 minutes of the beginning of the BF sale. Those who grabbed a ton had their orders cancelled, but I chose not to be greedy and just grabbed two and my order was left intact.
    Interesting comment. It is probably impossible for anyone here to know, but what is the protocol for canceling orders on marked down sets in limited supply? It doesn't appear to be first come first serve. But, maybe how many orders can we fill with the remaining inventory? Course, for the UCS MF they limited the qty to 2 on the May The Force Be With You sale. Wonder if they cancelled large orders on IF's and EN's when they went EOL? For instance, if a person ordered 5+ or 10+. Now I am curious - what was the largest order of IF's and/or EN's anyone got when they were EOL'd and on close out? It would be good to know that if you are greedy you may get your hand slapped. :-) Because, then you ask "How greedy can I be? 2? 3? 5? 10?" In the words of Dirty Harry - "Do you feel lucky?"

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  • DougoutDougout
    ^I've wondered this as well. You could order 5 IF from lego when they were EOL'd and came back to S@H briefly and maybe even more if you put multiple orders in. For items on sale, I would assume TLG sets limits specific to exclusivity and sales of that set. I don't think there is a limit on how many obi starfighters you are allowed to buy.

    As for the unimog, I would own one if I didn't have had to get the excavator first. I think it's way too early to be talking about EOL, but it is very cool and the snowplow, which is the second model it can build into, is also cool.
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  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO
    I got a few Front End loaders from the BF sale.
    I'm pretty sure they never got down to 33 bucks though, and yes I'm factoring in the 'mistake' by LEGO during the sale making them more discounted than they should have been.
    As for the unimog, I would own one if I didn't have had to get the excavator first. I think it's way too early to be talking about EOL, but it is very cool and the snowplow, which is the second model it can build into, is also cool.
    I think you are thinking about the new log truck that turns into the Snowplow
    I like the log truck, nice price and what looks to be a lot of pieces
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  • dk1007dk1007
    FB back in stock on Amazon US
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  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP
    edited March 2012
    FB back in stock on Amazon US
    Only four though. I wonder where they got the stock?

    EDIT: Also noticed GE is also back with 18 left.
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  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas
    Might be customer returns, or just "found" inventory in the warehouse,

    I have read that at any given time, Amazon's various warehouses have over 1.5 billion items in them, I would imagine they lose and find inventory all the time.
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  • DougoutDougout
    As for the unimog, I would own one if I didn't have had to get the excavator first. I think it's way too early to be talking about EOL, but it is very cool and the snowplow, which is the second model it can build into, is also cool.
    I think you are thinking about the new log truck that turns into the Snowplow
    I like the log truck, nice price and what looks to be a lot of pieces
    Both the logging truck and the unimog turn into a snow plow. I'm sure they both are better suited as what they are, but it is cool you can build something else out of the pieces.
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  • Si_Dorking_Surrey_UKSi_Dorking_Surrey_UK
    Heres one for you guys who missed out on the lightning dragon and want some to resell ...

    http://www.bricklink.com/store.asp?p=byGeorge&itemID=31085037
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  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John
    Amazon also shows 69 MMVs available for those who missed out (which probably wasn't too many).
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  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO
    edited March 2012
    Both the logging truck and the unimog turn into a snow plow. I'm sure they both are better suited as what they are, but it is cool you can build something else out of the pieces.
    Ahh, did not know about the Unimog being convert-able into a snow plow. It is excellent though with the Log truck/snowplow it looks really sharp, not like they tried to force another set out of the original.
    I wish the Unimog was like a real one and they would give ideas as to how to build the utility components that you see for real Unimogs
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  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas
    Interesting...

    MMV is back in stock, 126 units, and discounted to $89 on Amazon...

    :)
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  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John
    edited March 2012
    Lego had a Technic Snow Groomer/Plow a couple years ago that was EOL'd around the end of 2010. I don't think the Groomer was that popular. The new Technic Log truck looks nice though.

    Personally, I expect the motorized excavator (8043) to be EOL'd within the next 3-6 months. Every other set that was released concurrently is now gone. It's just a matter of time...get'em while you can.
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  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John
    edited March 2012
    The MMV is like the proverbial bad penny... ;-)

    I just wish Amazon would have the MVR on sale again. I could use one more below RRP and with free shipping. Great tie in with LotR and the Winter Village sets...
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  • mathewmathew
    The MMV is like the proverbial bad penny... ;-)

    I just wish Amazon would have the MVR on sale again. I could use one more below RRP and with free shipping. Great tie in with LotR and the Winter Village sets...
    Mill Village Raid is discontinued as far as I understand. It's not listed for sale on Lego's page and is out of stock everywhere except for Barnes and Noble. It was only on the market for what, six months? I just ordered it from B&N and paid retail. I was hoping to use a 30% off coupon but that wouldn't work (even after a CS told me that it would). I haven't received it yet, but it doesn't look to be as good as value as MMV.

    I don't see why people (except resellers) want to see MMV discontinued. It's a beautiful set and Lego doesn't have anything to replace it with.

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  • OdinduskOdindusk
    Just checked out BN.com for the first time. Membership doesn't yield the 10% off towards LEGO? That's unfortunate...
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  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John
    edited March 2012
    I don't see why people (except resellers) want to see MMV discontinued. It's a beautiful set and Lego doesn't have anything to replace it with.
    I agree that it's a good set...probably one of the best Lego has released in a long time. But it's been out there awhile, there's been more than ample opportunities for people to purchase it (including $90 at Amazon right now), and it's time to move on. It is no longer for sale at S@H, so it is essentially gone. It just keeps showing up at Amazon...hence my "bad penny" comment. I imagine that it is normal for sets that have been out for as long as the MMV will continue to pop up at Amazon for a longer period post EOL.
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  • mathewmathew
    It is no longer for sale at S@H, so it is essentially gone.
    I just checked S&H and MMV is still available (at least here in the US).

    However, your argument that "it's time to move on" doesn't hold water for me. Like I said, Lego doesn't have anything to replace it with. At least there are a couple of Castle sets coming out this year even if it's Monster Fighters and LOTR. I don't see any civilian sets for 2012 except for City (not my cup of tea) and Creator and Modular. Now, if they released a Hobbit village that would be cool, but it wouldn't look anything like MMV.

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  • mathewmathew
    Just checked out BN.com for the first time. Membership doesn't yield the 10% off towards LEGO? That's unfortunate...
    I don't think so. I joined the Kid's Club (yes I have kids so I'm not trying to be a cheat) and received a 30% off coupon. On the product description page it says that MVR does not qualify for coupons but then says "Kids Club Eligible". Anyway, I had one CS tell me via Chat that I had to first purchase the product and then he would apply my coupon. I thought this sounded like crap, but went ahead and bought it since I had been eyeing it. Anyway, I never received the discount even after calling CS. I was told via email that Lego sets are not eligible for discounts. Needless to say I don't plan on buying anything from BN.com again. Amazon has spoiled me with good customer service and prices.
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  • FatMattFatMatt
    @Farmer_John
    MMV is still available at S@H as Mathew said. It is under "Hard To Find" :P
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  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas
    Mill Village Raid is the one that is gone from S@H...

    As for mathew's comment about it not having a replacement, I would tend to agree, there is really nothing else like it, but then there is also nothing else to go with it either.

    Looking at it, then looking at Joust, I think we all expected Joust to replace MMV due to the price point and part count (higher price, lower part count).

    Right now, 1,601 parts for $99 from Lego is perhaps one of their best per part priced sets they sell now. Then again, they are all very small parts, but all those chickens and horses aren't cheap I would imagine.

    If anything, Lego is under-pricing themselves, they could rise the price to $129 and sell just as many.
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  • y2joshy2josh
    edited March 2012
    MMV's continued existence is anomalous in that it's from a long-dead line (Castle). Even Joust, which some apparently thought was going to be MMV's replacement, is from the more recently-deceased Kingdoms line.

    Now, if what I'm reading about a limited number of SKUs is reliable, then it's possible LEGO simply doesn't have another model to replace it at this time.

    It doesn't matter to me either way. It's a very nice looking set and, unlike its hanging-around-well-past-its-welcome friend The Death Star, it isn't really starting to show its age.
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  • SteverdSteverd
    edited March 2012
    So after reading pages and pages of investment post that say to buy the Death Star, I'm left wondering would it really be a wish investment of $400? So if everyone else is buying it, wouldn't there be 100s or 1000s for sale in the aftermarket?
    I know it will be worth 2x the price but there will just be so many for sale won't there?
    I'm just thinking that there will be so so many more sets than buyers for many years.

    What are your thoughts?
    Spent $400 on death star or get another FB and GE?

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  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO
    Interesting...

    MMV is back in stock, 126 units, and discounted to $89 on Amazon...

    :)
    Im guessing it is $89 as Walmart has their's for $89 as well.

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