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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • Without checking, I think Model Town House is also now a very high price, but I don't think it has minifigs.

    Perhaps it's because the Creator line isn't an appeal to AFOL's/Collectors? Obviously there will be some who love the theme, but a Creator vehicle is probably quite far down the lists of 'sets which look best on display', whereas I imagine the houses/buildings look quite good on display.
  • edited March 2012
    I think it is quite naive to think all Lego sets will appreciate over time. There are plenty of sets which now sell on Ebay cheap as chips. Only some flagship models appreciate in price. Some other models do appreciate over time but almost as the same level as of inflation.Like everything else, Lego market has peaks and troughs.
  • I think the creator houses do a lot better because the aftermarket pricing is probably dictated by AFOL who like to build elaborate cityscapes. That and there is about a zillion trucks available. The transport vehicle otoh was probably the only one made.
  • Here is a set I purchased a few months back as a potential Christmas present. It has been EOL'd over a year now and can still be picked up at or below RRP from Amazon (and other places). Surprised it didn't go higher...

    http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-Power-Miners-Titanium-Command/dp/B001URW7VM/ref=sr_1_1?s=toys-and-games&ie=UTF8&qid=1331761169&sr=1-1
  • ^^ Power Miners like Atlantis looks like one of those themes that just doesn't fit well with anything else. I'm of mind that Lego should scale back on themes and instead focus on these core four, City, Space, Castle and Creator with a few liscensed themes a year.
  • The Creator houses are great for display and in City layouts.
  • There are quite a few sets in the Power Miners line that sell at a decent value. I believe the Titanium Command Rig was from the last wave of PM sets, so I'm guessing it's still sitting at a reasonable figure because they were the last to clear out. Remember, that set was easy to find at 50% off for a while there. Now it sells for full retail again.

    Crystal Sweeper ($70 retail) usually grabs $150+. Underground Mining Station ($80 retail) gets sales of $150-ish too. Claw Digger ($20 retail) sells for $60.

    I mean, not bad at all for what many people thought was a "junk theme" that's now only a couple of years old.
  • I think it is quite naive to think all Lego sets will appreciate over time. There are plenty of sets which now sell on Ebay cheap as chips.
    Yes, but all the good stuff rises in price...

    err... wait a minute, I think I just figured it out! :)
  • edited March 2012
    Offroad Power and Fire Rescue were both available for ~30-50% discount from various retailers, although admittedly not on a large scale.

    However, I do think it is a case that a lot of the third-party inventory were obtained at these levels so that it's still profitable, and the competition is depressing the levels in the short term.

    As others have said, though, I don't expect these to appreciate at the same rate that the Creator houses do, since the houses are desirable to expand cities and are the next best thing for voracious Modular Building collectors.
  • I bought extra copies of Highway Transport, but avoided the Fire Rescue and Offroad Power since I frequently saw them not moving in stores when on sale or clearanced...but I think this one is pretty easy to explain. Neither the FR or OP make impressive display models...sure they are interesting and fun to build, but they aren't minifig scale and don't fit in well with a town layout, so by not making eye-catching models for display purposes, they aren't desired by collectors.

    The Highway Transport has an alternate Tow Truck model that is pretty nice looking, especially if you missed on the awesome Technic Tow Truck from 2006...I think that helps sell this set a lot and drives the price up.
  • ^ Fair enough about the houses, and the 50% off... :)

    You're right, I do love the Creator houses, so that is a really good point, the larger houses are almost modular like...
  • edited March 2012
    Maybe it is the mini-figs:
    You don't know the power of the Dark Side.
  • That and the Creator Townhouse is just amazing in terms of quality (at least compared to the other creator houses) The Creator vehicles tend not to do well, which is weird because they are nice IMO. I think the main issue is they are not minifigure scale (or least are not built for minfigs in mind) and Technic already builds 'model's of cars....
  • Sigh... I guess I just don't "get" the mini-fig thing...

    *ducks from littletoki throwing something at me*
  • You guys convinced me and I finally ordered my Death Star.
    Got the double VIP and free shipping. Seemed like the Perfect time to grab one!,,,
    I think I would be pretty sad if DS retired before I added it to my collection.
  • ^^ Power Miners like Atlantis looks like one of those themes that just doesn't fit well with anything else. I'm of mind that Lego should scale back on themes and instead focus on these core four, City, Space, Castle and Creator with a few liscensed themes a year.
    I really like the PM minifigures, which are very unique. I don't expect TLG to reproduce them for any future themes, so the MFs alone may appreciate down the road.
  • edited March 2012
    Maybe it is the mini-figs:
    http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-City-Set-8403-House/dp/B003F7TSOE/
    City House
    RRP $39
    Current price $97

    Retired a year ago, same as Fire Rescue
    The fact that some guy on Amazon hopes to get $97 doesn't change the reality that it frequently goes for $55-65 new on eBay.
  • Sigh... I guess I just don't "get" the mini-fig thing...

    *ducks from littletoki throwing something at me*
    I'm with you and I've even had the same conversation with @littletoki, standing 1 foot in front of her. As I've said to several people, and have had several LEGO store employees agree with me on - the minifig is just an accessory to the actual interesting part of any LEGO set.

  • What are your predictions on 8098 (SW Clone Turbo Tank)? Ain't it about time that it EOL soon? Over here in Germany it's almost never on sale (maybe 10%off MSRP),so it may a good sign that it will sell well in the after-market?
  • edited March 2012
    Maybe it is the mini-figs:
    You don't know the power of the Dark Side.
    I love the Dark Side, we have Girl Scout Cookies over here... ;)
  • edited March 2012
    I'm with you and I've even had the same conversation with @littletoki, standing 1 foot in front of her. As I've said to several people, and have had several LEGO store employees agree with me on - the minifig is just an accessory to the actual interesting part of any LEGO set.
    There are obviously various motivations, but a frequent explanation I receive from minifig collectors is that they aren't able to be set collectors due to constraints such as money or storage/display space.

    Prior to the introduction of the Star Wars license, there were examples of rare and desirable minifigs such as the castle wench, forestwoman, and original knights with stickers. There was also the notion of army building with black falcons, wolfpack, imperial soldiers.

    However, it really took on a life of its own with the Star Wars theme because it had crossover appeal to Star Wars fans that weren't previously LEGO collectors. Leia only appeared in the $99 7190 Millenium Falcon, and people not interested in the ship were willing to pay over $30 for her alone. When 7190 discontinued and quickly shot up north of $300, the valuation of Leia went with it and fetched as much as $100. One of the first promotional efforts was the clone trooper building event where stores received boxes of 500+ figures. Some inevitably made their way intact onto eBay and Bricklink and people couldn't get enough of seeing and wanting rows and rows of troopers.

    With its ever vigilant finger on the pulse of market demand, TLG seized the opportunity to reinforce the phenomenon. As most of us are aware, sets now often contain unique minifigs to maximize sales, CMFs are churned out by the bucketload, minifig bars were set up in LEGO stores, and promotional minifigs are finding their way into all manner of licensed merchandise: blu-rays, books, etc.
  • Yeah, I can completely understand why people collect minifigs. I'm just not part of that "team" myself, and I am not a fan of how it has driven up set prices across the board by overpopulating them with minifigs - SW especially.
  • ^Although if you have no interest in the (SW especially) minifigs you can just sell them on ebay and more than make up for the inflated initial cost. How much would you pay net for a death star if you sold off the 20 odd minifigs?
  • The other thing about minifigs - especially CMFs that do not come with sets - is that they can spark creativity, and suggest ideas. I love my MOCs. For example, the detective figure told me to MOC up a Dr Watson and a 221b Baker Street. The Egyptian queen just needed a Caesar and Mark Antony made to go with her. The ice fisherman needed an igloo. And so on ...

    It's less good for minifigs taken outside of their set, since the set often dictates the setting, but even so with a bit of imagination, the minifig can be, if not the star, then the impulse behind the setting.
  • edited March 2012
    How much would you pay net for a death star if you sold off the 20 odd minifigs?
    I'm interested in doing this - the voucher runs out today, and I'm wondering if I should get a Death Star, sell off the figs, then I have a ton of parts for a good price. How much would a set of Death Star figs go for? (I did look on ebay but no completed listings of a full set)

  • edited March 2012
    Might be easier to check the value on Bricklink? Let me know if you find out - I might be interested in doing it too - i really don't need another luke/obi/r2d2/c3po/chewy/darth etc.
  • edited March 2012
    Just parted out the death star on brick link, and then looked at the prices of the minifigs included. Trying to be conservative it came to £133. The most expensive was the black protocol droid at £16. Luke tatoine and palpatine are just over £10 and there was no price for this particular Darth, so I guessed at £10.

    Of course, this assumes that you can sell them all. Theres also a huge range. That protocol droid for example, cheapest its sold for in the last 6 months - £3. The most, £24!
  • CCCCCC
    edited March 2012
    Theres also a huge range. That protocol droid for example, cheapest its sold for in the last 6 months - £3. The most, £24!
    Most of them, especially recent ones, are around the £10-£12 mark. That £3 one might have been new but missing a head or torso.
  • What are your predictions on 8098 (SW Clone Turbo Tank)? Ain't it about time that it EOL soon? Over here in Germany it's almost never on sale (maybe 10%off MSRP),so it may a good sign that it will sell well in the after-market?
    A strong candidate to double in a year. 3x in 2 years. IMHO.
  • I have an Admiral Piett from the SSD. I don't collect SW so I don't have any use on the figure. What do you think it is worth? The lowest price on BL is $15 USD and that is hard to believe since this minifig is coming from a $400 set. I also have a Watto from the Podracers and a Captain Panaka from the Darth Maul's Sith Infiltrator.
  • ^ Piett sells on eBay for 15-20.
  • What are your predictions on 8098 (SW Clone Turbo Tank)? Ain't it about time that it EOL soon? Over here in Germany it's almost never on sale (maybe 10%off MSRP),so it may a good sign that it will sell well in the after-market?


    A strong candidate to double in a year. 3x in 2 years. IMHO.
    Sounds promising!Just bought two at Amazon.es for 92€ (incl.shipping) each!

  • Star Wars turbo tanks, republic gunships and trade federation mtt's always seem to skyrocket in value.
  • edited March 2012
    I recently bought the new Dengar for £10, thought that was a good buy, as I am unlikely to buy the new Super Star Destroyer since I have no realistic display space for such a model.

    To be honest, was surprised the figure was not much more.
  • USC Jedi Starfighter is now sold out on S@H in US. Not a long shelf life.
  • ^ Its about time it sold out. It was on sale from the 2011 Holiday Sale.
  • ^^ Now how long until we can't believe that these sat for so long at "only" $59.99...
  • edited March 2012
    ^^ Now how long until we can't believe that these sat for so long at "only" $59.99...
    I suspect that one will sit at $100 for a long time, a year or more...
    It might not be until Christmas 2013 before we see it at $150 or $200.
    Just my thoughts on it.
  • ^ certainly no one should be able to claim they didn't have a chance at this one. Sat at 40% off direct from LEGO for 4 full months.
  • ^ certainly no one should be able to claim they didn't have a chance at this one. Sat at 40% off direct from LEGO for 4 full months.
    What about the kids without internet who have been planning their family vacation, during warmer weather, near a Lego store where they could order it? They will be crushed :(
  • Not to menition that it was 25 % off christmas 2010 as well...
  • edited March 2012
    Amazon now at 10% off . . .
  • GE and PS are both 10% off, free shipping and no tax to most, that is a pretty good deal for anyone who wanted them anyway.

    Death Star is 10% off, and that isn't discounted very often.

    MMV is 10% off, but that isn't new, and Amazon keeps restocking a few here and there (or they are messing with the inventory numbers)

    Tower Bridge is 10% off as well, but that has been less from time to time, ditto on Imperial Shuttle.

    SSD is 10% off, while it will probably be 10% off on Brick Friday, that is not likely to be a better bargain for awhile.
  • Amazon has the Pet Shop and Grand Emporium for only 135 USD with free shipping and (usually) no tax right now.
  • Amazon has the Pet Shop and Grand Emporium for only 135 USD with free shipping and (usually) no tax right now.
    Thanks, but I think @LegoFanTexas had a much more attractive deal.
  • Thanks, but I think @LegoFanTexas had a much more attractive deal.
    I agree. @LegoFanTexas posted a better deal :)
  • Ummmm... they're the exact same deal.
  • ^ yeah, I think they were messin' with madforlegos...
  • I figured, but second-guessed myself on whether or not that was the case.
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