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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • The Funhouse has two figures that don't come in other sets and offers arguably the best package (minifigs, playset, price) among all the sets in the wave.


    True, but that assumes those figures won't become available in something else next year.
    Well if you judge how the last LEGO Batman series went, then the riddler at least may only be in this set, same with Harley, but Im guessing as popular ias she is as well she and joker may be in other sets, but what if they don't put Joker in any future sets.. silly I know, but then again he is in two sets in the line already and even if he is in a third that will not stop him being insanely popular when the line ends (yes I'm assuming the line ends because the only line to stick around continuously anyway has been SW.)
    Either way the Funhouse is a good deal considering you get 5 figures for only 40 USD and they are all 'main' type of characters as well. That is one reason I think it keeps going on backorder.
  • Thanks for the heads up about the MVR and MMV sets -- while I don't collect Castle, I had a TON when I was a kid (my favorite at that time) and I picked these up to hang on to and pass on to my kids some day. MMV also has some potential as a "historic" building in my modern modular city and/or in my winter holiday town...
  • That is a good deal, even more so for a set that shouldn't be around all that much longer.

    Or maybe it will, who knows...
  • Very tempting on the Fire Temple. I love the design. Wish it was more finished on the sides and back but it's a kid's set. My son would love it but he's only three and will have it in pieces. I wonder why it would be discontinued when it comes from a popular theme and hasn't even been on the market for a year.
  • It is a red box Ninjago set, all the current sets are green box. All of the other red box sets are now gone, this is the last one left at normal price.

    I would expect in the summer we'll see another big part count Ninjago set to replace this one with.
  • Got ya'. My son just started watching Ninjago so he would probably love this. This is the only set that I would want to build but it looks like it's now sold out.
  • edited March 2012
    The Fire Temple and the upcoming 9448 Samurai Mech are the only sets I want from the Ninjago theme.

    image
  • Got ya'. My son just started watching Ninjago so he would probably love this. This is the only set that I would want to build but it looks like it's now sold out.
    At that price, it wasn't going to last long...

    Amazon.com is also sold out, don't know if that is coming back or not. It can still be purchased from Shop @ Home

    http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Fire-Temple-2507

    Something to consider, because it may or may not come back anywhere.
  • ^ Hows the stock of the Fire Temple at the LEGO Store? Sold out? Few available? Overstocked?
  • So... what do we all think about Quidditch Match (4737)? It's a fairly awful set... but also a pretty major part of Harry Potter. My local Wal-Mart has them marked down to $12.99 and I did pick one up for myself, but I'm contemplating getting a couple more to hang on to. Worst case scenario, they go for RRP someday, yes?
  • ^ I would think you double your $$ at least from $12.99. This Christmas when parents are looking for HP and there aren't any to be found, they will gladly pay $25+ for this set.
  • So here's a thought ...

    What if they never retire the Death Star?

    Okay, okay, so never is a long time, but we know how TLG likes the iconic things from licensed themes, and other than the MF, the DS is the most iconic out there. The MF gets a redo every several years, but I'm not sure how inclined TLG would be to try an updated version of such a large set.

    The license was just extended another 10 years, the DS makes a good anchor set for the Star Wars line, it doesn't look dated from a build/minifigure perspective, and it continues to outsell all the other large SW sets. Seems like it remains a pretty good ROI, from TLG's perspective, so I'm wondering if we will see new "10th Anniversary" packaging on this set in a few years.

    Just a thought ...
  • I disagree on the figs not looking dated. Most of the iconic characters (luke, Han, leia, obi, c-3po) have had at least one revision since DS launched
  • ^ They just might do that!

    They could add it a couple of minor improvements/additions to justify a re-pricing exercise allow it to keep pace with inflation and the newer set becomes the more desirable set as well. I wouldn't want to be holding large stocks of DS if that did happen.
  • How long do some of the big players last on the TRU BOGO?

    I'm talking DS, GE, PS, MMV, aka "the good stuff". Whenever I jump on TRU the first day of a BOGO - these always seem gone, or maybe excluded in the first place.
  • Stock starts clearing out pretty quickly once TRU flips the switch on the sale. I haven't watched in a while, but from what I remember the website turns over in the middle of the night (maybe midnight TRU HQ time?), so the night owls are at an advantage.
  • ^ Many people have also observed the phenomenon of most of those desirable sets going "out of stock" prior to a sale, and then becoming available again later :P
  • ^ I think that has mostly been coincidental, rather than a conspiracy. at least some of the SKUs have been available in all the BOGOs, and often times all of them are. they sell out fast of course, and there are other times where PS may be available, but not GE, or vice versa. I think it's just chance inventory fluctuations. In no case has it ever been "ALL of the high end direct sets are out of stock." I don't give them enough credit to try and only manipulate some of these items and not others, so I think it truly is just realistic inventory.
  • ^^-For the PS, the last few BOGO's they seem to never have the set yet for a BOGO, but the FB and GE were available but sold out within 30 minutes - hour after the sale started.
  • I regards to the Death Star minifigs... even the characters that haven't had significant updates since 2008 still have the old solid black eyes. And the stormtroopers have the plain black heads (which I actually prefer). And let's not even discuss ANH Luke's hair... So the minifigs in that particular set are all actually pretty dated, which is just another reason I'd like to see it go out and make room for a nice $300-$400 Cloud City.
  • ^Personally I hope they never re-release Cloud City. I have way to much money invested in those figures/sets for there to be a re-release and a "sinkage" in price of the old figures/set!
  • edited March 2012
    I know there is an extremely popular thread already here on Brickset about the discontinuation of sets and their secondary market value, but what about the figures?

    With a family that would strangle me if I took up as much room as some of you do storing NIB Lego sets, I've resorted to collecting the figures of old/new Star Wars sets, and a few other themes as investments for when the figures discontinue. I also have a lot of figures from past sets that I've bought over the years, even after the set has discontinued, and held onto for investments. I realize that the value of the figures somewhat correlates with the value of the set in it's secondary value, but a lot of times the value of the set/figures are something completely different when separated. So am I the only one that does this sort of thing in Mass with hundreds of figures collected for investment (and somewhat collective purposes), or are there others out there that do the same? If so, what are your all's thoughts on some of the figures currently out there in the market?

    Will Cloud City Boba Fett be decreasing in price with the release of the new CW Boba with printed legs coming in the summer? Will Cloud City Boba continue to rise in price dramatically like it's done in the past year? Has Jango Fett's price topped out? Is Watto still rising in price? What figures that are being released now do you see as some good and solid investments? Merely some questions to try and stimulate/start some conversation, as well as questions that I'm truly intrigued by, on this topic.
    Cheers all,
  • Unless they make the boba a full print with arms and such I dont see it dropping too much in price, if at all.
  • I just bought another Medieval Market Village (I think my total is now 5) and another Death Star (my total is now 4.) I hadn't paid attention to the Emerald Night aftermarket prices until a few minutes ago. I was surprised to see them selling for $175+. I think @LegoFanTexas has good insight into this. But you also see the investment market dynamics happening here, with him considering buying up all of the lower end of the market, thus driving up the price overall. This is what I have seen ticket sellers doing this outside of concerts... buying buying buying because then they can set the prices, because they bought up all the competition. And this, assuming that they will throw out a bunch of tickets at the end of the night.

    As a FAN of LEGO, yes, I buy with investment in mind, but mostly, I just don't like seeing opportunities pass me by. That once a set like these retire, I would be locked out of buying more of them. LEGO is a lifelong hobby for me, and the sets I buy are those I really love.

    @LegoFanTexas - I am surprised you only have 12 Death Stars!
    Thanks everyone, great conversation here as usual.
    -Dan
  • The DS is tempting me right now at Amazon for $360...
  • ^Personally I hope they never re-release Cloud City. I have way to much money invested in those figures/sets for there to be a re-release and a "sinkage" in price of the old figures/set!
    I hear you, but do keep in mind that it has been long enough now...

    The old Turbo Tank and old Republic Gunship did well enough until the "new" ones came out.

    I have a bunch of Turbo Tanks purchased on the cheap, when that set retires, I won't wait 10 years to sell them because I have no doubt we'll see another Turbo Tank at some point. So the prime selling time is 6 to 24 months after retirement, after that you might as well just sell them and move on, lest they come out with a new one.

    Plus, a $400 UCS style Cloud City would not be very similar to the old one, given the part count differences.
  • I hadn't paid attention to the Emerald Night aftermarket prices until a few minutes ago. I was surprised to see them selling for $175+. I think @LegoFanTexas has good insight into this. But you also see the investment market dynamics happening here, with him considering buying up all of the lower end of the market, thus driving up the price overall.
    It is one possible stratagy, but of course the risk is that you don't know how much unlisted inventory is out there. You could well spend $8K buying up all the inventory, then another 8K worth pops onto the market that was in people's closets.

    With concert ticket sales, you have a pretty good idea of the total inventory that exists, something you don't know with Lego.
    @LegoFanTexas - I am surprised you only have 12 Death Stars!
    Thanks everyone, great conversation here as usual.
    -Dan
    I just ordered 2 more from Amazon, but that is my limit for now... Might end up with 20 of them, we'll see what May 4th brings in...

    The set is getting older, if it doesn't go out this year, it runs the risk of not being what we're hoping it will be in the aftermarket.
  • ^Same thing can be said for MMV.
  • True - for anything that we discuss here buying up before retirement, we don't know what it will do in the aftermarket. What I do like about LEGO is that there is an inherent value in the pieces. A set such as Death Star or MMV seems to hold little risk of DECREASING in value in the aftermarket, so it is merely a matter of how much it rises, and how quickly.

  • Plus, a $400 UCS style Cloud City would not be very similar to the old one, given the part count differences.

    Still, I have no doubt it would sink the price of the original Cloud City. No matter how different it is, the title "Cloud City" is enough to do 10123 in and make them relatively the "same set" in people's minds. Besides the set itself of 10123 is so terrible, any re-make would blow it out of the water.

  • I would bank on all the Superhero minifigs, if Batman I figs are any evidence of Batman II/DC/Marvel future interest. Most figs from that series are well above $20 a piece now; Scarecrow, Killer Croc, Mr. Freeze, Alfred, Nightwing, Two-Face, Batman (Both Old Blue/Old Black versions); Robin (Yellow/Red). Only figs that still moderate priced are Penguin, Catwoman, Joker, Riddler, Bane & Ivy. The first 2 figs are because they were from the cheapest sets and the last 5 (Catwoman again) because they were rehashed almost identical. We'll see how the new Wonder Woman, Superman & Lex Luthor do shortly.

    My feeling is that prices for these Batman I figs will go even higher once more Superhero sets come out. My hope is less rehash and more new figs, since the characters available are near endless. So I hope they do not go the Star Wars route and alienate long-term collectors with revisions.
  • ^ very true. If there is a new Cloud City, it will be so much better, that regardless of the few rare minifigs in the old one, that set will drop like a stone.
    It's not 'if' we get a new Cloud City, it's when, and I wouldn't be surprised if this is what replaces the Death Star at some point.
  • "Plus, a $400 UCS style Cloud City would not be very similar to the old one, given the part count differences."-LegoTexasFan

    That was supposed to be in quotes.

    Anyway, yes I agree Richo.. no doubt some cloud city is coming soon. With 10 more years on the contract, they only have so many more sets they can "remake" in a BIG way. Cloud city is definitely one of them. I'll be watching brickset and the LEGO market for any news on releases of such a set, or anything similar to it.
  • @samiam391 - Please note that I've recombined your new "figures" thread with this "sets" thread as this is where we would like that conversation to percolate. Thanks.
  • ^It just doesn't feel appropriate to talk about minifigs on an important thread such as near-EOL sets. It's like talking about kid toys at the adult table where serious topics such as profit, inventory and discounts are the main course. In a way, I almost feel like some portions of the community would wish minifigs to disappear altogether. Just expressing a view as to why SamIam thought it a better idea to discuss mini-figs separately.
  • @legofantexas - what's going to happen on May 4th ?
  • edited March 2012
    ^ Sale on selected Star Wars sets.
  • I regards to the Death Star minifigs... even the characters that haven't had significant updates since 2008 still have the old solid black eyes. And the stormtroopers have the plain black heads (which I actually prefer). And let's not even discuss ANH Luke's hair... So the minifigs in that particular set are all actually pretty dated, which is just another reason I'd like to see it go out and make room for a nice $300-$400 Cloud City.
    I suppose you are right, but I'm not sure they are dated enough for Lego to feel they have to scrap a set that is selling well. I think the odds are better than zero that the DS hangs around for several more years. Maybe then, as someone mentioned" they can do a "10th Anniversary" edition and update the figs at that point.

    I understand all the reasons it should be discontinued, but I also can see if I was sitting in TLG's HQ the reasons for keeping it on the shelves.
  • In other news, I was talking to the manager of one of my local Lego stores last week and he indicated he will not be re-stocking any HP (other than Diagon Alley) once his current inventory runs out. So at least at this particular store HP will be gone before summer.

    Interestingly he also mentioned that Lego is coming out with so many new sets/themes this year that he will not be able to stock them all. This may also be why the discontinuation of HP a little early is store specific in this case as he clearly is trying to make room anywhere he can.

    At my other Lego store, the Fire Brigade was nowhere to be seen for the first time that I an recall.
  • ^It just doesn't feel appropriate to talk about minifigs on an important thread such as near-EOL sets. It's like talking about kid toys at the adult table where serious topics such as profit, inventory and discounts are the main course. In a way, I almost feel like some portions of the community would wish minifigs to disappear altogether. Just expressing a view as to why SamIam thought it a better idea to discuss mini-figs separately.
    Technically, minifigures don't retire, their sets retire. So you're pretty much just wanting to discuss the aftermarket value of "subcomponents" of sets which you'll find is indeed covered here.

  • ^Hhmmm you're right. But doesn't that make it even worse for adding to an already heavy thread of important topic-ness? Just trying to respect the value this thread serves.
  • @legofantexas - what are your thoughts on Diagon Alley? How many of those have you stockpiled? I don't see it discussed AS much as other sets, and seems like a sleeper hit.
  • ^ I'm obviously not LFT, but I see Diagon Alley performing extremely well in the aftermarket, so long as interest in HP sets remains steady. Outside of Hogwart's, it's really the only set of its scale in the line... and it's arguably a better model than Hogwart's as well. On top of that, it also features most of the main characters, so that's a big draw for the minifig collectors as well.

    As for stockpiles, I'm sure LFT has some stashed away already, but for my money, it's a bit early to go nuts on this one yet. It only came out recently, and precedent has been established for a single set to hang around well after the line it was originally part of has been put to bed. I could be completey wrong about that, though.
  • Apologies for the double post... but I forgot to mention that I would NOT be sad to see the original Cloud City's value tank if it meant I could get one that didn't look completely awful. If there's any single Star Wars model that NEEDS to be updated, Cloud City is it.
  • @samiam391 Personally, I would not "invest" in minifigs. Unlike sets with somewhat predictable cycles, minifigs can be reproduced at any time. They do not have to have anything to do with a set.
  • @gmpirate I think it's like most things: it depends on the buy-in price. But some minifigs are highly unlikely to be reproduced (custom printing, etc) and others have a value in quantity - Clones, Stormtroopers, etc. I tend to buy lots of minifigs, focusing on those that relate to building armies.
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