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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • ^ True, I've been unloading my 8014 clones for the past few months now. For the most part, however, I think its very risky relative to sets. At least from the stand point of building a big inventory. Personal collection? doesn't really matter :P
  • @gmpirate I see your point. How much were you getting for your clones?
  • I think it's like most things: it depends on the buy-in price. But some minifigs are highly unlikely to be reproduced (custom printing, etc)...
    A great example is the rock monsters with the Power Miner theme. Why would those ever be reproduced unless the theme was resurrected (which is unlikely...at least for a long time). I do like the rock monsters, and believe they will be collectible at some point. And there are a lot of other examples...
  • @brickupdate $7

    @Farmer_John But how many people out there are going to be looking for rock monsters? Imo, not enough to justify "investing" in them.

    As brickupdate pointed out, I think army building is the one exception. Anything else could/will be reproduced. And you can't buy enough gold C3PO's to make a profitable venture either.
  • @gmpirate WOW! $7 is a good price for clones. I tend to get them here and there for about $3 each. At that price, I don't get concerned about saturation of the market.
  • Like everyone has been saying, buy-in price is a big thing with figures. Unlike sets there is no set MRSP, it's the demand that sets the price. If you can get figures for a great price, they make for good investments. For example, last year I scored a Cloud City Boba Fett for $50... since then it's risen to $250. Yes, there is more risk for figures as investments, but if you are good at predicting the market demand, as well as watching the LEGO market for re-releases on figures, then you are pretty set.
    I tend to focus on the rare figures I know are in popular demand and I can get rid of fast if I need to, such as Jango fett, Cloud City Boba, Chrome C-3PO, and of course the clones. It's more of a matter of space for me, since I don't have the room for massive amounts of NIB sets, I go with the figures which take up very little space and make me a nice amount of money.
    Cheers,
  • I wish I had 100 8014 sets just for myself, but I only have the 5 I was able to get before it disappeared. Those would have been the only minifigs I would have invested in. If another clone trooper battle pack is done I would buy a ton.

    I do enjoy the minifigs, but I have little interest in them by themselves so I don't invest in them.
  • I find it amazing that people pay $200+ for a Cloud City Boba Fett minifig. Some people think it's a sane purchase, other think those who purchase it are insane. Nonetheless, each are entitled to their opinion.

    That said...I hope for an updated Cloud City.
  • @legofantexas - what's going to happen on May 4th ?
    It is a promotion Lego has done for several years now...

    "May the Fourth be with you..."

    It is a Star Wars thing. :)

    There is talk of a "Revenge of the Fifth" on the 5th of either May, or another month as well.
  • @legofantexas - what are your thoughts on Diagon Alley? How many of those have you stockpiled? I don't see it discussed AS much as other sets, and seems like a sleeper hit.
    Not a single one, actually...

    I have one set aside to build, otherwise that's it. It is not a set that is time to buy, in my opinion. I see it staying past the end of HP, for no good reason perhaps other than the fact that Lego may have the specific parts for this already made in qty in their bulk storage and this is a good way to move them.

    It is possible it will just up and disappear, but the risk also is that once HP Lego goes away, future demand for it will also go away. Without "new" HP sets on the shelves to let new people in the hobby even know HP Lego ever existed, most people won't search out for it.

    Time will tell... If I can ever find them on offer for 25% or more off, then I'd pick some up.
  • I find it amazing that people pay $200+ for a Cloud City Boba Fett minifig. Some people think it's a sane purchase, other think those who purchase it are insane. Nonetheless, each are entitled to their opinion.

    That said...I hope for an updated Cloud City.
    So do I, which is why I've bought all of mine for about 50% less than the average market sale. It's a splendid minifigure, and one of my personal favorites, the quality of the printing is just superb. However, Jango is my absolute favorite, and it shows by the mass of them I have... went a little overboard there.

    I actually picked up 2 diagon alleys today for $250 free shipping. Not an absolutely amazing deal, but for someone looking to stay small with my LEGO NIB inventory, it wasn't bad.
    Cheers,
  • @dougout Lol, I had a hundred sets of 8014 as of a few months ago. I kept thinking someday I would build an army scene. Sometimes I would just buy some to reach the minimum for whatever the freebie was that month. Now I'd rather have storm troopers :P

    Another problem with selling minifigs, however, is there are tons of flaky bidders -- both new and seasoned bidders. I file several times a week on non-payers.
  • Another problem with selling minifigs, however, is there are tons of flaky bidders -- both new and seasoned bidders. I file several times a week on non-payers.
    Fixed price auctions that require instant payment do fix that problem. :)
  • ^^Yea, another battle pack like 7667 would be nice. Those seem to be selling for a high price right now. I would also like to see 7668 and 8014 redone so I can build my armies. With 10 more years of star wars, I think these army packs will get done again. Hopefully, sooner rather than later.
  • ^ True, but I get a lot of people bidding on multiple items, some auctions are multiples, and some simply start out at $.95. I don't waste time, however, chasing them down -- just file and move on :P
  • I have invested heavily in SW battlepacks over the past few years - I think they are a no-brainer for resale. 7654, 7667, 7668, 8014 - probably had around 100 of each purchased on 3for2 or clearance so average price paid around £6-7 each - wait until EOL ( this is the easy bit as they always last 2 years unlike bigger sets) and then resell for usually £25-30 each.
    Am currently clearing my 8014s then it'll be onto the stashes of 8083/4 & 7913.
    Not making UCS falcon profits but its nice and steady
  • @roxio Are u selling in bulk or individual boxes? Seems like a lot of work to make $20 per sale but maybe that is your niche.
  • Count me in as one hoping for a new Cloud City. Way back when I had the Star Wars Micro Collection Cloud City playset and loved it (even with the tiny diecast nonposeable figures). I've looked at the current set online and it is just too expensive for what it is. Agree it is only a matter of time before Cloud City is remade.

    To try to stay somewhat on-thread, I note that I picked up a Battle of Endor playset (just missed this one as I really started focusing on star wars in the last couple of months) for $115. That was definitely a steal -- average price seemed to be up around $150. Currently debating whether the Hoth sets are worth a gander -- aren't they out of production or close to it? And I, too, keep going back and forth on the Death Star. I just can't seem to justify $400 -- or even $360 -- to myself (or my wife).
  • I suspect another cloud city will be at the £100+ level rather than the £250+ of a death star.
  • ^ Probably right. Cloud city would work well in a Death Star, diorama, style set though.
  • And I, too, keep going back and forth on the Death Star. I just can't seem to justify $400 -- or even $360 -- to myself (or my wife).
    It is a personal decision of course, but consider that it is similar to spending $115 on 4 different "Battle of Endor" sets.

    The size, detail, and part count, are justified here.

    Building it was indeed fun, it was worth every penny...
  • Building it was indeed fun, it was worth every penny...
    I could say the same thing about the UCS Millennium Falcon. >;)
  • For those who care, The Dynamico Duo 6857 is back in stock at TRU, and discounted at $40.99 each...
  • Building it was indeed fun, it was worth every penny...


    I could say the same thing about the UCS Millennium Falcon. >;)
    Ha! You're so funny... ;)

    To be honest, Death Star is great at $400, it would still be pretty amazing at $800.

    At $1,829, it would not quite be such the deal, which is where the price would be if the per part price was similar to UCS Falcon.

    If you care to sell me your used UCS Falcon for what you originally paid for it, I'm game. :O

  • If you care to sell me your used UCS Falcon for what you originally paid for it, I'm game. :O
    I'll get right on that! Let's see. I originally paid $4500 for it because I ummm... bought a super advance Beta copy that was released a few months before it went public. And there's a special George Lucas minifig in it.

    :D

    You should get in on the round robin exchange.


  • Count me in as one hoping for a new Cloud City. Way back when I had the Star Wars Micro Collection Cloud City playset and loved it (even with the tiny diecast nonposeable figures). I've looked at the current set online and it is just too expensive for what it is. Agree it is only a matter of time before Cloud City is remade.

    To try to stay somewhat on-thread, I note that I picked up a Battle of Endor playset (just missed this one as I really started focusing on star wars in the last couple of months) for $115. That was definitely a steal -- average price seemed to be up around $150. Currently debating whether the Hoth sets are worth a gander -- aren't they out of production or close to it? And I, too, keep going back and forth on the Death Star. I just can't seem to justify $400 -- or even $360 -- to myself (or my wife).
    I hope Cloud City will be the replacement for the Death Star, but to be honest whichever set they replace the Death Star with will be worth it if it's at all similar to it. The Death Star is just SO epic!

    Most of the Hoth sets should be bought when you see them if you're interested in them, as at least the 10 year anniversary Echo Base, AT-AT and Wampa cave are out of production, and 7989 will probably be discontinued in not too long.

  • I'm trying to think of scenes that are SO CLASSIC that they could replace the Death Star.

    Cantina (would be amazing for minifigs, but would LEGO really create a $400 set of a cocktail bar?!)

    Dagobah (with only 4 characters really interacting here, I can't see this being the choice)

    Hoth they have done to death already

    Jabba's Palace they are already doing in 2012 - a pretty cool looking set too.
    Maybe Jabba's Sail Barge? Likely not $400 though.

    Endor - please no. I just don't think a forest set at $400 would fly off the shelves.

    Cloud City - you know, a LOT happened here, tons of characters on all sides, including every major character. Plus many scenes, including the most classic scene from the entire series - one of the more classic scenes in cinema. Two actually.

    So, cloud city gets my vote too.
    -Dan
  • How about a $400 set of Naboo? It could have the Royal Palace, the hanger, Darth Maul fight, etc.
  • I'll get right on that! Let's see. I originally paid $4500 for it because I ummm... bought a super advance Beta copy that was released a few months before it went public. And there's a special George Lucas minifig in it.

    :D

    You should get in on the round robin exchange.
    Show me a receipt and we can talk... ;)

    All kidding aside, no matter how cool it is, is it $2,500 cool?
  • Cloud City and Jabba's Palace are the only sets I can see feasibly replacing the Death Star at a $200-$400 price point... and Jabba's Palace seems to be off the table for the time being. So if they replace the Death Star with a similarly priced set... I'm really hoping it's Cloud City.
  • How about a $400 set of Naboo? It could have the Royal Palace, the hanger, Darth Maul fight, etc.
    I have obviously no data to back this up, but I am sure OT sets generally sell better than prequel or clone war sets. Can't see a 400 $ Naboo set selling well.

    The only things I can see getting similar treatment to the Death Star are Cloud City or an Ewok Village. Then again I can't see either of them selling as well as the Death Star, so maybe there won't be another 400 dollar play set anymore.

    Btw, if I would have to come up for an idea for a huge prequel play set, I would suggest the Jedi temple.
  • Wow, thinking about picking up a used Death Star to build. Seems they don't come up very often on Ebay. On Bricklink they are more than RRP :(
  • @ hoyatables

    I have a bit of a Hoth theme going in my sons room right now (AT-AT, Wampa Cave and Battle Packs) and I just snagged the smaller Echo Base (7749) for $30 shipped on ebay. They all look great displayed together. Especially with the snowspeeder and speederbikes on stands so it looks as though they are in flight.

    The bigger Hoth Echo Base set doesn't really seem like it would fit in with the 'outdoor' look of the set up I have going right now. But who knows, I'll probably kick myself down the road for not grabbing it when I could for retail. The Hoth sets

    I did just pick up Battle Of Endor for $115 tax in from a friend of mine. Would like to grab Ewok Attack and the Endor Battle Pack to round out the scene....And eventually have 10212 Imperial Shuttle landing somewhere in the display somewhere.

    The Death Star just doesn't interest me as much as it seems interest most everybody else. For $400 my $$$ is going to the SSD. I'm a display more than play guy though. My 4 yr old may think differently once he's seen the movies in a few years though.

    The first UCS set on my list is the Imperial Shuttle. Really hoping something happens with this on May 4.
  • ^ Lol, I don't think anyone here are necessarily "play guys". I think its safe to assume that we are all thinking of our kids as far as the "play value" goes with the Death Star.
  • I'm not really a "play" person, I build for the fun of it, then the stuff sits on the shelf.

    Hmm, kinda silly really. :) But then I'm not a kid anymore either.

    I do like playing with the trains with my son, because they actually "do" something, and they remind me of the model trains I had as a kid. Never had all these fancy sets when I was a kid, just a few boxes of basic bricks.
  • Side note - @Amazon

    840 Death Star's left now, slowly working down. If the numbers are accurate, they are selling a few an hour. Not bad for a $360 item, but honestly slower than I would have expected. I guess it isn't Christmas, but it is on sale, so that should help.

    If Lego does 80% of their sales during Christmas... That would mean this should sell between 50K and 100K units on Amazon each year. Add to that what Lego sells direct, what TRU sells, and the other retailers around the world.

    Anyone want to place bets on 10188 moving about 1 million units a year worldwide? Too many? Too few?
  • ^ point taken.... although I would hazard to guess there are some who still play with this stuff even when there are no children around. ; )

    I don't know, the jury is still out with me on the DS for now. I'll probably be kicking myself once it's no longer available....If I don't purchase it soon.
  • ^^One million units? I think that's grossly overestimating the number of sets they sell.

    Even if there are a thousand people like me, 40,000 such sets that will be slowly moved to the market over 2 or 3 years after the set EOLs, is nothing...

    Does anyone here have any idea how many FB's Lego has made? If it is any less than 500,000, I'd be downright shocked, I'm guessing the number is over a million.
    I would guestimate there were about 60,000 DS sold and maybe 80,000 FBs sold. Maybe more, but I assume that resellers are buying multiples during times when these sets are discounted and at these points sales are considerably high. TLG may do 80% of sales during Christmas, but how does that compare to when these sets go on sale even if the sale is 10%? Also, I would assume their sales of AFOL sets go up slightly and most of the increased sales are for kids stuff. This is obviously just speculation and no where near an exact science, but it is what I have gathered from bits of info I have heard here and there.

    Also, there are just not enough AFOLs to justify the new molds, AFOL sets like the Emerald Knight number in the tens of thousands of units, Ninjago mid range sets are over a million sets produced.
    This is just one comment I remember. I thought I could find more examples, but I think Nabii is very reliable. Obviously the Emerald Night is not a Death Star or Fire Brigade, but tens of thousands for a nice AFOL sets seems more accurate than 100,000 or a million copies being sold.


  • ^^One million units? I think that's grossly overestimating the number of sets they sell.

    I would guestimate there were about 60,000 DS sold and maybe 80,000 FBs sold.
    Assuming you're talking about total production, those numbers are way, way too low...

    At the current sales rate, Amazon would move 35K units a year of DS, but this is March, not December. I watched DS go in and out of stock during Christmas, they were moving up to 100 an hour the two weeks before Christmas.

    If a big, complex set like DS could only sell 60K units over 4 years, that would be 15K per year, I do not believe that makes any sense whatsoever. It means that Amazon would be moving, at most, perhaps 3-5K units per year, to give enough units for everyone else to sell.

    Amazon will sell 3K of them this month, much less all year.

    Maybe they have made a million of them, maybe not... I don't believe 60K for a second.

    Another way to look at it... Lego did about $3.5 Billion in sales last year (most of it wholesale sales, so discounted 30% off retail prices), 250K Death Star sets for the year would be $70 Million wholesale... That is not hard to believe out of that gross sales figure. It works out to 2% of their total sales, for a product that sells for $400 (compared to all the $20 sets), that seems possible.

    If they are only selling 15K of them a year, that would be $4.2 Million. It sounds like a lot, but that is a drop in the bucket compared to $3.5 Billion in sales, it is about 1/10 of 1%. For a big, complex set like that, licensed no less, I just don't see it.

    Just my opinion of course. :)
  • If amazon really is moving those kinds of numbers then a much higher estimate is definitely more realistic. I didn't pay attention to how much they were moving during Christmas so I didn't know those statistics. I figured Amazon was probably Legos #1 retailer and they were only selling 7k sets a year.

    I thought about trying to calculate the amount of sets they could sell by their sales, but I also didn't know those numbers. I'm sure if I took the time to research and got an old pencil and piece of paper out, I could get a much more accurate number, but I guess I'm just too lazy for that right now.

    I can see 250-500k of these sets being sold total if amazon really does sell that much. I guess I wasn't considering that this set is going to a lot of kids instead of mostly AFOLs. Now that I am doing my math again, I definitely miscalculated. There are just so many factors to consider. Over 100,000 just seemed like too many sets for AFOLs, but this set is meant for kids.
  • @MCWwakeboard
    I sell the battlepacks individually - it takes no time at all to pack and post. I have been reselling for 6+ years and these are a constant stream of profit. I sometimes sell 3 or 4 discontinued ones together as a lot and they make good £ as well.
    I suppose its all relative to personal circumstances - I do have a full time job but I live 50yds from a post office so its convenient.
  • Of course the 1 million sold number could be too high as well, maybe it is 250-500K total over 4 years. I just think that over 4 years, 60K is too low.

    But only Lego really knows. :)

    The next question is, over 4 years, how many SSD sets can they sell?
  • I find it amazing that people pay $200+ for a Cloud City Boba Fett minifig. Some people think it's a sane purchase, other think those who purchase it are insane. Nonetheless, each are entitled to their opinion.

    That said...I hope for an updated Cloud City.
    Speaking of Cloud City, I just scored a MNIB one for $350. Didn't even know it was MNIB until the seller told me after I had bought it. Happy Birthday me.



    The next question is, over 4 years, how many SSD sets can they sell?
    From what I read over all the forums, everyone just sees it as a gray mass of bricks. Personally, since I have the set, I think it looks fantastic and it's aftermarket value will be extremely high. Because the piece count to price ratio is decently off (Not that off in the SW market though), they won't be selling as many right now to the regular consumer. However, once it's retired and there are hardly any on the market, it will steadily increase in price. Let's just hope, for those that own one, they don't re-release it like they did the Imperial Star Destroyer.
    Cheers,

  • Regarding estimates of sets sold...

    A LEGO employee mentioned in another thread that sets like Emerald Night sell in the tens of thousands, while sets like a mid-range Ninjago sell over a million units.

    If the mid-range Ninjagos are what are seen as "million unit" sellers, then I doubt any of the modulars are in that sales class.

  • My un-educated guess is that the Death Star sells in the tens of thousands and is not a million unit seller. I'm sure it sells more than something like Emerald Night otherwise it wouldn't have stuck around as long. However, I have a hard time believing that at $400 it's flying off shelves.
  • My un-educated guess is that the Death Star sells in the tens of thousands and is not a million unit seller. I'm sure it sells more than something like Emerald Night otherwise it wouldn't have stuck around as long. However, I have a hard time believing that at $400 it's flying off shelves.
    You wouldn't think, except that $400 isn't as much money as it used to be, Apple sold 3 million iPads in 3 days on the launch of the iPad 3 at an average price of $665.

    So, you never can tell. :)

    If it hasn't sold a million, I would not be surprised. I'd fall over shocked if it hasn't moved 250K units in 4 years however.
  • ^^ I agree that it's quite amazing how many iPads Apple sells. I own one, but I know I could live without it. The key difference to me between the Lego Death Star and an iPad is that the DS will probably go days without any use whereas we (the family) use the iPad daily. I'm sure I would be giddy putting the DS together and then admiring it for a few weeks after. After that however, I would be concerned that it would gather dust. Also it's not something that I would want just sitting on a shelf somewhere.
  • You make a good point about the daily use of the iPad vs. the build and display of the Death Star. Of course, the DS is meant to be played with, unlike actual UCS sets, which are all display models, the DS is really playable. It is one of the best play sets for Star Wars, of any size.

    I've personally seen multiple parents buy DS in the Lego store for their kids, the manager there also tells me most of the sales of that set go to parents for kids, unlike the modulars which mostly go to adults.

    I would not be surprised if DS outsold FB during the same period of time.
  • FYI: successfully snuck my 4th Death Star into the house while my wife was out.

    I agree with @LegoFanTexas about the unique appeal of Death Star as an expensive set: this is not just a pretty model, it is a set that both boys and girls actively play with.

  • ^” Honey, is that a death star in your pocket or are you just happy to see me?”

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