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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • ^ if it's not a DS in his pocket he might want to see a doctor cause somethings probably wrong.
  • ^^ lol, is that what she calls it these days? 'death star'?
  • Let's just hope, for those that own one, they don't re-release it like they did the Imperial Star Destroyer.
    When did this happen and why would they do such a thing? If memory serves me correctly, the original(?) release of 10030 sat around gathering dust between 2002 and 2008... at which point LEGO just burned off their stock at 50% off (and they still didn't sell quickly at that point). I also imagine a re-issue would have tanked the aftermarket value, but this set still pulls in well over a thousand dollars easily.
  • The original 10030 was done in light gray. At some point TLG changed their gray colors to the bluish grays which we know today. The later 10030s were done in this light bluish gray.

    Were there some which received a mix of new and old grays? I bought a used old gray one and it had a couple of elements in new bluish gray, but I assumed the person I bought it from just substituted pieces.
  • ^^ What's that big bulge in your pants, honey?

    Will you get the silent treatment if you get busted? lol.
  • Interesting, I was unaware there were two colors of 10030 made.

    I'm not sure which on I have, how can you tell? I am not sure I really know the difference between the new and old gray colors.
  • The new light and dark grays have a little bit of blue in them. (Thus Bricklink has deemed them light bluish and dark bluish gray). In artificial light they tend to shine. The old grays are a bit drab. And the old light gray has a terrible tendency to discolor.
  • edited March 2012
    The original 10030 was done in light gray. At some point TLG changed their gray colors to the bluish grays which we know today. The later 10030s were done in this light bluish gray.

    Were there some which received a mix of new and old grays? I bought a used old gray one and it had a couple of elements in new bluish gray, but I assumed the person I bought it from just substituted pieces.
    From what I've understood, there are 4 total versions of the ISD made. The first production run was in old gray colors with a manual that was bound like a book, similar to the Master Builder Academy manual.

    The second production run was also in old grays, but with a spiral bound manual like those seen in the UCS Falcon (which was used for the rest of the models availability), the ones from around 2004 and a few years after are the ones that used a mix of gray colors, and the last production runs were bluish gray.

    So in short, your ISD is most likely the third edition...

  • Interesting, I was unaware there were two colors of 10030 made.

    I'm not sure which on I have, how can you tell? I am not sure I really know the difference between the new and old gray colors.
    The old gray colors are a whole lot more yellow than the newer bluish grays, with the old dark gray being almost brown in color, while the difference between the light gray and light bluish gray is less than the darker grays.

    Do a search for lego grey bley on flickr or google images and you'll see some images that show the color difference clearly.
  • edited March 2012
    So it wasn't so much re-issued, then, as it was produced in four different versions (similarly to how there are at least two different Death Stars or UCS Falcons from the same 'cycle')? I more than likely have the fourth version, as I got it during their 'fire sale.'
  • I guess I have the 1st run of the ISD. Kind of wish I had the 2nd, I would rather have a spiral bound manual instead of the binded one.
  • The original 10030 was done in light gray. At some point TLG changed their gray colors to the bluish grays which we know today. The later 10030s were done in this light bluish gray.

    Were there some which received a mix of new and old grays? I bought a used old gray one and it had a couple of elements in new bluish gray, but I assumed the person I bought it from just substituted pieces.


    From what I've understood, there are 4 total versions of the ISD made. The first production run was in old gray colors with a manual that was bound like a book, similar to the Master Builder Academy manual.

    The second production run was also in old grays, but with a spiral bound manual like those seen in the UCS Falcon (which was used for the rest of the models availability), the ones from around 2004 and a few years after are the ones that used a mix of gray colors, and the last production runs were bluish gray.

    So in short, your ISD is most likely the third edition...

    Dunno - it may be the 2nd run. There were only four parts which were bluish gray - which I think may have been subbed. FWIW, the instructions are spiral bound and the box says copyright 2002. Anyway, this is the only large Star Wars set I have on display (haven't built my UCS X-Wing or UCS Falcon yet).
  • How about 10195. Still slow and steady. I will make a Christmas price prediction for this set: $550.
  • The Ninjago set 2507 Fire Temple is #7 in another post of 'Top 10 LEGO Sets in Revenue for 2011'. I have seen talk about 2260 Ice Dragon Attack going way up by Christmas (and it already has since it was both a Special Edition and is now EOL'd). Any thoughts about the Fire Temple? It sure seems to already be selling well, both as a set and when parted out.
  • Imperial Flagship is still at around $300. By Christmas, will it be $600?
  • FYI, for those of you looking for SSD 10221 at a discounted price. TRU on Ebay has them listed at $359.99 with free shipping. Of course you have to pay tax if your state applies, but it still comes out to less than retail with free shipping.
  • Imperial Flagship is still at around $300. By Christmas, will it be $600?
    I think it will be mid 400s...this would make it similar to the path that Green Grocer followed.

  • I got my Maersk Train in the maill today, and am now deciding whether to keep it sealed in it's box, or build it. Any thoughts on what I should do? If it's a nice display piece, I'm intrigued to build it. If people think it may shoot up in value after a soon discontinuation, I want to keep it sealed. Thoughts?
    Cheers,
  • ^ the set will likely be around for quite a while yet, so I say open and enjoy. It really does look fantastic (one note of caution however, you really do need to apply the stickers. Actually looks quite bad without them)
  • @samiam391 I agree with @dougts on Maersk Train. Should be around for a bit longer. I usually buy one set to build, and then if I want to keep the set MIB, I buy extras. EG: build an Imperial Flagship to see how I like it, and then buy a few and keep them MIB when I realized how great it was. This also helps any guilt factor in opening sets that I feel could shoot up in value after retirement. Always balancing PLAY and FUNDING THE HOBBY!
  • Imperial Flagship is still at around $300. By Christmas, will it be $600?


    I think it will be mid 400s...this would make it similar to the path that Green Grocer followed.
    Maybe...
    With the amount of resellers that have IF and EN Id imagine there will be 'deals' to be had during the holidays. Not sure how well these will climb.
  • I got my Maersk Train in the maill today, and am now deciding whether to keep it sealed in it's box, or build it. Any thoughts on what I should do? If it's a nice display piece, I'm intrigued to build it. If people think it may shoot up in value after a soon discontinuation, I want to keep it sealed. Thoughts?
    Cheers,
    If the Maersk train is out long enough (similar to the EN line) then it will go up but stabilize (similar to the EN) because of the large amount of people that will horde the Maersk trains.
    Good for people that need one that will not have bought, or had a chance to get, a Maersk train when it was being produced. The nice thing is that these are nice trains with more playability IMO that the EN so they will be sought after.
  • I got my Maersk Train in the maill today, and am now deciding whether to keep it sealed in it's box, or build it. Any thoughts on what I should do? If it's a nice display piece, I'm intrigued to build it. If people think it may shoot up in value after a soon discontinuation, I want to keep it sealed. Thoughts?
    Cheers,
    Definitely build it. The Maersk Train is suppose to retire in 2013, so you'll have plenty of time to buy more.

  • Ok, great, thanks for the feedback everyone. I appreciate it! I'll be opening it up to build shortly!
    What are your all's thoughts about the HP line? I know the discontinuations of the entire line are happening soon, but with no new movies coming out and no new sets coming out, will the sets drop off in value or increase? I have a large lot of NIB HP sets and am deciding whether to sell quickly after their discontinuation, or wait a few months.
    Cheers,
  • They'll increase, the sets have absolutely wonderful minifigures and there is a huge fan community out there who will be getting more disposable income soon.

    Pretty much every set of the 2010-2011 lines is a winner, but I have to highlight both Hogwarts sets (soo many characters), the Burrow (Mr and Mrs Weasley, Ginny, great parts), Diagon Alley (One of Lego's best sets ever, this one will be legendary), the Knight Bus (purple plus unique minifigures), the forbidden forest (Narcissa and three important characters plus vegetation parts) and of course Hogwarts Express (I have a feeling Luna might be the most expensive of all Harry Potter minifigures in five years).

    I know I named pretty much every set out there, but the line oozes of quality in every aspect. You might want to wait for a while to sell as I don't think Lego is going to release any more HP sets. Sell if you start hearing rumors of 3d rereleases, an MMORPG or if JK Rowling releases a new book set in the HP universe (doubtful, at least for a good while), as I think Lego is itching for an excuse to release more sets as the latest line was hugely popular, with Hogwarts caste being the 10th highest grossing set for Lego last year.
  • Freeing Dobby was a good little set to get for parting and selling. I bought a load at £4 a box, and the Dobby minifig alone often sells for that.
  • Imperial Flagship is still at around $300. By Christmas, will it be $600?


    I think it will be mid 400s...this would make it similar to the path that Green Grocer followed.

    I will be selling all my flagships for $600 this November on eBay. Don't forget to invest in a decent camera and some picture taking skills after July 2....12 free pics with zoom and enlarge, along with good feedback, is going to make moving mints sets very easy this holiday season. Make it easy on yourself and your profits and spend a few bucks on some form fitting shipping boxes as well. Good trades!

  • It looks like 8043 is out of stock at S@H. It says shipping in 30 days, but I have to wonder. It's about due to be EOL'd...
  • GE and FB also say shipping on April 8th.
  • ^What region are you in? GE says April 8th, but FB says 30 days. I'm thinking since FB is sold out basically everywhere, it's on its very last legs here... though I've been wrong about that before.
  • ^FB's status has been going back and forth between shipping in 30 days and an actual ship date.
  • ^What region are you in? GE says April 8th, but FB says 30 days. I'm thinking since FB is sold out basically everywhere, it's on its very last legs here... though I've been wrong about that before.
    I'm in eastern US.

  • I was able to get 2x PS, 2x GE, 2x Shuttle, 2x Destiny's Bounty, 2x Winter Post Office, 2x Tower Bridge, 6x Wolverine Chopper, and a few CMF Series 5 and 6 figs.
  • Could GE and FB be get discontinued at the same time? From what brickset says, GE has almost been available as long as Cafe Corner was and the same thing with Fire Brigade and Green Grocer.
  • @Dougout - I think the GE will last until Black Friday personally, it's in all the promotional material for the Town Hall, and it fits the general discontinuation schedule for the previous modulars. I am of the belief that Lego made one last batch of Fire Brigades due to the missing parts in the 39R1 batch, the set would otherwise have been cancelled for the holidays.

    This of course is all from a reasonably educated fan with only slivers of evidence, the only ones who actually seems to know the discontinuation schedule are people pretty high up in the Lego Group.
  • FB has had more than one batch post 39R1. I've seen 44R1, 50R1, and 52R1 in the past 3 months.

    I take that to mean they decided to keep making the parts to completely make sure they had enough replacements for a long time for the bad sets. What they didn't want to do is in 12 months say to callers "sorry, we don't have the parts". 5 years from now? Sure, that might be ok, but they needed a few years worth of parts.

    As for GE, it is due for retirement this Christmas, since FB has stuck around, it is possible we'll see both go at the same time, but I suspect it is more likely that FB will just fade away this summer and GE will hold strong until Christmas, maybe even until next spring when the new modular comes out for 2013
  • ^I think FB is one to watch on S@H right now. If it comes back from 'Out of Stock. Shipping in X days' then it'll probably stick around for awhile. If not, I feel like it's done.
  • It looks like 8043 is out of stock at S@H. It says shipping in 30 days, but I have to wonder. It's about due to be EOL'd...
    @Farmer_John On Amazon it is $214 and sold by a 3rd party. And, was out of stock at TRU yesterday. Don't know if it was on stock when the BOGO started. Course, S@H, TRU and Amazon may get more in later. It's in stock on-line at Target, so it's not out of stock everywhere.

    But, to your point, it may be close to EOL. I thinking it's close. I hope so. I have several of them and have been buying them for a good while when I could get them BOGO. I think it will increase well in price after EOL.

  • 8043 is indeed nice, but do keep in mind the price per part, the overall weight of the box for the money.

    It does have a ton of power functions to be sure, however are those worth all that money? Unimog is twice the weight for the same price, 8043 just seems expensive for what it is.
  • ^ yes, but i build both and i enjoyed the 8043 much more than 8110 unimog. it has great playability and it is a masterpiece!
  • how about 10212 ?. It is so nice shape and elegance.
    2 years later, it will be legend.
  • I cannot wait to build 10212. Soon I hope. Very soon.

    But hopefully this set will be around for another year or so.
  • 8043 is indeed nice, but do keep in mind the price per part, the overall weight of the box for the money.
    Just my opinion, but I don't think either of those aspects matter to most people. Collectors, serious buyers, etc. may evaluate price per part a lot, but I don't think the average LEGO purchaser does.

    Not sure where you're coming from about the weight. Do you mean it will cost more to ship? I don't think the extra shipping cost is enough to make a difference.

    Yes, the Unimog is a nice set, I have it too. But, I could easily see a child being much more excited about the Excavator! Just something about construction equipment. Dozers, excavators, front end loaders. :-) And, power functions! I think most people realize a set with PF's is going to cost more. And, I think they would much rather have them included than to try and purchase and retrofit them in later.

  • @ hoyatables

    I have a bit of a Hoth theme going in my sons room right now (AT-AT, Wampa Cave and Battle Packs) and I just snagged the smaller Echo Base (7749) for $30 shipped on ebay. They all look great displayed together. Especially with the snowspeeder and speederbikes on stands so it looks as though they are in flight.

    I'm definitely doing the same thing with the same sets.
  • Just my opinion, but I don't think either of those aspects matter to most people. Collectors, serious buyers, etc. may evaluate price per part a lot, but I don't think the average LEGO purchaser does.

    Not sure where you're coming from about the weight. Do you mean it will cost more to ship? I don't think the extra shipping cost is enough to make a difference.
    You don't think people look at the price per part? Maybe they don't, but it is sure talked about a lot here when it comes to current production sets, people are always saying how expensive Star Wars sets are looking at their RRP and part count.

    As for weight, what I mean is that for the same money, you're getting a lot more "stuff" for the money, the weight of the box means there is a lot more stuff in it, it is much heavier, more plastic, more parts, etc.

  • As for weight, what I mean is that for the same money, you're getting a lot more "stuff" for the money, the weight of the box means there is a lot more stuff in it, it is much heavier, more plastic, more parts, etc.
    I would assume most of the secondary market is online, so buyers wouldn't know how heavy the boxes are.

  • ^ You may well be right, the weight may not be obvious to anyone unless they pickup the boxes.

    The part count, 1,200 to 2,000, is obvious, but then so are the extra power functions.

    Shame Unimog isn't motorized like 8043, I would have preferred a $250 set that was motorized to the one that they did, but they probably did want to keep that $200 price point.
  • On a completely unrelated note, I did pickup 4 more Death Stars from Amazon during the 10% off sale and I'm pleased to report that all 4 arrived in perfect condition.

    For once, Amazon shipped them in their Lego shipping boxes, so they were doubled boxed and arrived just fine (2 DS per larger shipping box, each DS inside its own Lego box). So much of what Amazon ships is damaged, this was a nice change. :)
  • edited March 2012
    You don't think people look at the price per part? Maybe they don't, but it is sure talked about a lot here when it comes to current production sets, people are always saying how expensive Star Wars sets are looking at their RRP and part count.
    The ratio is more relevant to current production consideration, since LEGO MSRP is very formulaic.

    In the after market, price becomes a function of supply and demand, and less about the physical characteristics of the set. I could see considerations, such as: xxx and yyy being both $300 on the aftermarket, and someone who likes them both equally but has to pick one might consider part count. MSRP is also the launching point for prices, so insofar as piece count is reflected in that, it is a factor... but far from the dominant factor.

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