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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • I just checked Bricklink and Ebay and it does seem that the $1200 (roughly equal to 775 pounds) mark is what most of them are going for. Sounds kind of high to me but then again this set is consistently going up in price.
  • broke down and ordered a couple FBs from shop at home. They are back ordered a few weeks, but free shipping still applies for a couple more days.
  • ^--- on the fence about FB.. tempted to get one or two before they sell out.
    Im concerned only because I have seen this happen where a backorder occurs until x date then at that date they show as 'Sold out'

  • ^ Buy one right now. They are basically sold out everywhere except S@H.
  • edited March 2012
    ^^^ When I go to S@H it's not on back order?
  • Anyone notice FB is back in stock at S@H?

    Wait, it was in stock for a little while? Now it's back to backordered with an estimated ship date of April 18. This kind of flickering of in stock and backordered is typical of sets about to be discontinued, right?

    It will be interesting to see what happens come April, I certainly wouldn't wait to buy this set any longer than necessarry.
  • Just a data point - I ordered a FB from S@H on 3/13 and it shipped on 3/28. During most of that time, it said "Out of Stock, Ships in 30 Days".... eventually improving to "Ships April 8th" before it actually shipped. I'm interested to see if I get one that has been opened / resealed / multiple batch numbers... the delays could be be their manual intervention to put in the missing bag.
  • ^ the 2 I just ordered say "10197 Fire Brigade V39" in my confirmation email. Not sure that means anything, but it will be interested to see.
  • I called a few lego stores around me and they are sold out of Fire Brigades. One manager said he's been getting regular shipments every week, and got 5 this monday. I don't know if they are just out of stock because people are buying so many in anticipation, or if it really is close to discontinuation. I would think TLG would want to keep selling it if its selling this fast, but who knows.
  • ^ my local store hasn't gotten FB in their shipments for over a month now. The manager did tell me however that it's listed on his master "sheet" as available for the rest of the year, though he is personally skeptical it will actually make it that far.

    not being in the most recent catalog is certainly the first, best clue to me that even LEGO thinks it won't be around too much longer.

    I half-suspect the remaining inventory may very well be all the bad batch items they got returned (both directly, and from retailers who got it returned to them), and that LEGO is indeed repacking and quality-controlling all these and burning off the inventory online and out to LEGO stores.
  • ^^ 5 would be a very odd number, since they come tot he stores in boxes of 2 each
  • I just checked my LEGO email invoice and it also says Fire Brigade V39. I'll follow up when it arrives... tracking for Friday.
  • edited March 2012
    Wait, it was in stock for a little while? Now it's back to backordered with an estimated ship date of April 18. This kind of flickering of in stock and backordered is typical of sets about to be discontinued, right?
    If you view the Fire Brigade from the multiple product listings, it will show that it's on backorder. If you go to the actual product listing page for Fire Brigade, it shows "Available". I believe viewing one or the other is what is confusing people as to what the status is, and not it actually changing on those respective views. I think it's backordered.

  • Just ordered a FB from S@H. I was hoping it would be restocked through TRU, but that's looking unlikely before the current BOGO ends.

    I just don't want to miss out in case I do end up deciding to collect the modulars. I made that costly mistake once already.
  • Just ordered 2 myself, I think this one is about to disappear for good
  • Interesting... I placed an order for one FB, but I haven't received an email confirmation. S@H shows that the order is "In Process". Do most people receive an email confirmation right away? I'm tempted to cancel just because I'm having second thoughts, but I can't find out where to do that on S@H
  • edited March 2012
    Lego has had glitches in their Shop-at-Home ordering for the last year or so. I estimate one of every three of my orders in the last ten months hasn't generated email notifications of purchase and/or shipment. If you got the confirmation screen after purchase, your order went through regardless of whether or not you receive an email.
  • I ordered March 12 and I'm getting the V39 batches. I heard TLG did this added xxx number with the excavator when they needed to add the actuators or something. Assuming these V39 batches are the returned batches, would they be selling these to hold them over while they make new batches or are they emptying their last supply? I called S@H and the lady there said they don't resell returned items. She was adamant about it, but that seems odd from what people are saying here.
  • ^ well, I do think we are just speculating. I also think that while they are probably correct that they don't sell "returned" items, I would say taking the returned FB with missing parts, and re-packaging it into a new box is almost certainly happening. Especially considering many of them probably have either not been opened at all, or some/all of the inner bags are still sealed. they can just return these bags intact into the packing assembly line to get re-packed into "new" boxes. open bags/pieces are probably handled differently.

    Then there is the bad batch items "returned" from stores that was never actually sold - the "recalled" items. those need to be opened, missing pieces inserted, then resealed (or re-boxed entirely). Technically, this would not be a "return", so the CS person is correct, but the pieces very well may have been out in the wild at some point.
  • I ordered Fire Brigade from Lego a couple weeks ago. Still in process. It doesn't matter to me if my copy has been re-packed, as I just want the set with all it's pieces accounted for before the after market prices kick in.
  • Three of my closest Lego stores have not had any FB's in stock for over a week at least. Hit up the San Diego store today and they had three out front. Picked up a couple but didn't ask if they had more.
  • Ok, I was curious to what people thought the future aftermarket price of FB could reach. Will it be like the previous modulars? I know this has been asked previously, but I would just like short and simple replies. Here are my questions and my speculations.

    What will the aftermarket price be 1 year after discontinuation? I personally think it won't increase as much or as high as the previous modulars. Possibly $225.

    What will the difference be between used and NIB? Previous modulars that were used didn't increase at all within a year according to BrickPicker.com.

    When will the greatest increase in aftermarket price come? Both Cafe Corner and Green Grocer increased more the second year of discontinuation than in the first, also according to BrickPicker.com.

    Will FB follow the same patterns as previous modulars? I kind of doubt it because people weren't expecting it with the previous modulars.
  • S@H has Fire Brigade showing as 'Available now' Although if I was someone who ordered a FB when on backorder Id ensure that your item ships (I have had times where it did not and then the set sold out (holiday train)

    Also Cad Bane's speeder appears officially Sold out at S2H(not sure if someone else put this up)
  • Ok, I was curious to what people thought the future aftermarket price of FB could reach. Will it be like the previous modulars? I know this has been asked previously, but I would just like short and simple replies. Here are my questions and my speculations.

    What will the aftermarket price be 1 year after discontinuation? I personally think it won't increase as much or as high as the previous modulars. Possibly $225.

    What will the difference be between used and NIB? Previous modulars that were used didn't increase at all within a year according to BrickPicker.com.

    When will the greatest increase in aftermarket price come? Both Cafe Corner and Green Grocer increased more the second year of discontinuation than in the first, also according to BrickPicker.com.

    Will FB follow the same patterns as previous modulars? I kind of doubt it because people weren't expecting it with the previous modulars.
    As noted in many many many threads, including this one :-)
    It is all about Supply and demand...
    Will FB take longer to go up? Absolutely (although Green Grocers were very plentiful when retired but still is managing to cover the same price bracket as Cafe Corner)
    Will FB take longer than GG and CC?
    Not sure, I'm guessing yes, but as long as mods are popular and people feel the need to get them all then the set will go up and be about the same price, if not more.. For whatever reason fire stations are cool.. kids that could not get one when being a kid may skyrocket these when they get older, who knows..
    I would say based on Supply and Demand it will rise, maybe not as fast as CC or GG, but it will.

  • FB will be slower to appreciate mainly because there will be more reseller inventory available compared to previous modulars. More resellers are on the Lego bandwagon today. With that said, I think FB is a better looking set than say Pet Store which helps in my opinion. I can't say that as an adult I'm terribly excited about a fire station but it does look great. Pet Store on the other hand has a fisher price, sesame street look about it. As more modulars become available, collectors will be more choosey as to which ones to invest in. Most likely they'll go for the better looking sets first.

    With all that said, I did try to cancel my FB order from S@H. I received an email from CS stating that it had already been processed for shipping (which I find a little hard to believe) and that I can always request an RMA. I think I'm going to see what happens over the next couple of months. There's always the possibility that Lego is going to keep it in circulation through the end of the year and that it's been out of stock due to the parts issue. If that's the case, I'll just return it.
  • Can anyone educate me as to the bad batch# of the Technic Excavator please?
  • @littletoki, the tiger is a big hit! Thanks for sharing. And thanks everyone for such an interesting read. Its good to be back on Brickset. I missed this place!
  • edited March 2012
    Ok, I was curious to what people thought the future aftermarket price of FB could reach. Will it be like the previous modulars? I know this has been asked previously, but I would just like short and simple replies. Here are my questions and my speculations.

    What will the aftermarket price be 1 year after discontinuation? I personally think it won't increase as much or as high as the previous modulars. Possibly $225.

    What will the difference be between used and NIB? Previous modulars that were used didn't increase at all within a year according to BrickPicker.com.

    When will the greatest increase in aftermarket price come? Both Cafe Corner and Green Grocer increased more the second year of discontinuation than in the first, also according to BrickPicker.com.

    Will FB follow the same patterns as previous modulars? I kind of doubt it because people weren't expecting it with the previous modulars.


    As noted in many many many threads, including this one :-)
    It is all about Supply and demand...
    Will FB take longer to go up? Absolutely (although Green Grocers were very plentiful when retired but still is managing to cover the same price bracket as Cafe Corner)
    Will FB take longer than GG and CC?
    Not sure, I'm guessing yes, but as long as mods are popular and people feel the need to get them all then the set will go up and be about the same price, if not more.. For whatever reason fire stations are cool.. kids that could not get one when being a kid may skyrocket these when they get older, who knows..
    I would say based on Supply and Demand it will rise, maybe not as fast as CC or GG, but it will.

    The race for reselling in the aftermarket doesn't start until after the retirement gun sounds. And there are a lot of race cars at the starting line with FB, GE and PS. This makes the Modular series not a sprint, but a marathon.

    I say it'll be the second Xmas season post-retirement for good resale value on these sets.


  • The race for reselling in the aftermarket doesn't start until after the retirement gun sounds. And there are a lot of race cars at the starting line with FB, GE and PS. This makes the Modular series not a sprint, but a marathon.

    I say it'll be the second Xmas season post-retirement for good resale value on these sets.
    Agreed, and I think the EN and IF are showing this, then again they only have been EOL for about 3-4 months. I think the prices have stabilized due to everyone that bought the sets on sale trying to get their money back now.. It is good though because it is stabilizing prices so at least people can still get them for a relatively affording price compared to what other EOL sets have done in the past...
  • edited March 2012
    Not sure this matters to anyone but I just received notice that my Fire Brigade which I ordered from Lego has been shipped. I placed the order back on the 24th and it was on back order since then.
  • Just an update - the Fire Brigade that I ordered from S@H arrived today. The line item on the receipt says "Fire Brigade V39". The seals look original and say batch 11R2.
  • When you see V39 in the order, i don't think that refers to the bad 39 batch. That seems to be how they specify the models internally. If you look at the instructions for any given set, including the FB, they list them as V29, V39, incrementing if/when they make actual changes to the model. The FB is still listed as V39 as far as the instructions are concerned...
  • Just a note, Amazon finally is showing their supply of 10198 dropping, with 194 left in stock.

    If anyone wanted this set to actually build, now would be a good time. This is, I think, the last remaining supply of this set, unless someone can point me elsewhere.

    Which begs a question, would this be worth investing in for future sales, now that we know for sure the supply is gone?

    Hmm...
  • I wonder, I wish I was paying attention to how fast they were moving. Last time I knew they had over 1000. I haven't built it yet, but I really like this set and I think it has potential.
  • well, it's not really going to decrease, and it has several things going for it: OT item, iconic ship, decent if not unique minifigs. but I dunno, it just seems kind of meh, boring, not sexy. are kids going to be clamoring for this if they missed it? no clone wars, no bounty hunters, no luke or vader or han solo. just kinda....there.

    it will spike up for sure. but not sure it's going to skyrocket or anything. but who knows, that's why it's called speculation, eh?
  • Here's the problem with 10198 (I think) - It doesn't appeal nicely to either main camp of collector. For kids, it doesn't really have the requisite play features or stellar cast of minifigs... never mind that two of the minifigs have had updated versions issued since. For AFOLs, it's not going to be as desirable as 10019, which is a much nicer model in almost every way.

    So, while I think it will increase, I don't know that it will be a particular quick climb, and I see it mainly satisfying a market of buyers who want a Blockade Runner... but don't want to shell out the cash for 10019.

    So I don't know. I'm not going to invest too heavily in it (if at all).
  • How about Cad Banes speeder? Will their be a value increase now that its EOL? Legofantexas how many do you have?
  • I thought Cad Banes speeder was the worst Lego Star Wars set ever at its pricepoint, but my nephew really wanted it. Seems to me like a set with zero appeal to the average AFOL who is into Star Wars, and they're the ones that generally pay more than RRP for a set a few years after retirement.
  • The manger at one of the local Lego stores wanted to know what I was going to spend my VIP points on. She said I really should grab a DS cause they aren't making it anymore. I laughed and said "that's what they said last year". Then she went on very seriously that it will be gone by summer. She said they just got their last 5 in. Her last comment didn't make sense to me but it just struck me how emphatic she was.

    I was thinking I would hold out till the 4th of May before buying anymore but . . .
  • What ya'll think is the best time to sell a 10179? I have bricklinked one (no substitutes,all original parts)and i have no space to build it,so i'm thinking of selling it. Shall i wait for christmas time?
  • ^ Its a "very" mature set. Sell it. Everyone always points to Christmas time but the market can be over saturated for some sets. For big ticket sets like 10179, you may find people allocating their money for smaller items for more people.
  • edited March 2012
    Wait, it was in stock for a little while? Now it's back to backordered with an estimated ship date of April 18. This kind of flickering of in stock and backordered is typical of sets about to be discontinued, right?
    If you view the Fire Brigade from the multiple product listings, it will show that it's on backorder. If you go to the actual product listing page for Fire Brigade, it shows "Available". I believe viewing one or the other is what is confusing people as to what the status is, and not it actually changing on those respective views. I think it's backordered.
    Now it's the other way around. In the multiple product listing it says "Available" and in the product listing it shows on backorder. EDIT: It actually only says "Available" when you search for it, otherwise it says on backorder.

    I'm debating wether or not to buy another 10198. I only own one which I got for $125 along with an ARF Trooper last May the Fourth. Even if it doesn't increase too much we do know that it's on its way out and possibly this christmas sell them for a small profit. DS, FB, MMV, and other sets we've discussed could all still be around that time.

  • ^ Its a "very" mature set. Sell it. Everyone always points to Christmas time but the market can be over saturated for some sets. For big ticket sets like 10179, you may find people allocating their money for smaller items for more people.
    Thanks for your reply! Hope this will create some money to invest in other projects!
    Just thinking wether i use BL or Ebay?
  • ^ Its a "very" mature set. Sell it. Everyone always points to Christmas time but the market can be over saturated for some sets. For big ticket sets like 10179, you may find people allocating their money for smaller items for more people.

    Thanks for your reply! Hope this will create some money to invest in other projects!
    Just thinking wether i use BL or Ebay?
    There is a thread somewhere debating this point
    I think the short answer is:
    Depends on how fast you want to sell it and how many fees you want to pay.
    BL, I think, is a smaller flat fee (someone else would need to confirm who sells on BL) and of course Paypal (if you accept a paypal credit card payments) but the members are a bit more finicky than most on eBay in regards to exact quality (how many scratches on a part to determine if it is really 'new' as opposed to near mint, etc) and not everyone knows of BL so it may not sell for some time.

    eBay is a wider range of viewers. People that are, perhaps, a bit less detailed (picky) about the EXACT condition of the item (but be honest when selling it about its condition and as detailed as you can to ensure people know what they are getting), and it should sell faster (either you can list as a buy it now or roll the dice with an auction for 7 days) but you are going to pay the eBay fees and Paypal fees.
    Seeing what those sell for it will be a chuck on change, so to speak.

  • Also keep in mind the fees. eBay is getting upwards of 10% of the final selling price of your item. For example, if the item sells for $1,500, eBay gets $150. That's in correlation with PayPal as well, because there is a cost of the transfer of funds from the winning bidders account to your own. You also have to account for listing fees, but that shouldn't take up more than $5-$10. If you are selling such a high priced item, I highly encourage that you take advantage of all of the listing enhancements that eBay provides, even if it costs you a few extra dollars.
    I know BL charges a much smaller final value fee and listing fee, however as @madforlegos just mentioned, the exposure will be less, and the amount of time you will have to wait before it sells will be longer.

    Final thoughts, if you choose to sell on eBay, go the buy it now/best offer. I find auctions much to chancy now a days, where as buy it now/best offer gives you much more flexibility to choose the price you want to sell it for. With such a popular item, you should get enough best offers to sell it within a reasonable time frame. Or who knows, someone may snap it up for your BIN price!
  • No e-mail here for the second order in a row
    Just a note, Amazon finally is showing their supply of 10198 dropping, with 194 left in stock.

    If anyone wanted this set to actually build, now would be a good time. This is, I think, the last remaining supply of this set, unless someone can point me elsewhere.

    Which begs a question, would this be worth investing in for future sales, now that we know for sure the supply is gone?

    Hmm...
    Target still has some for sale online. Who knows though, I have heard of target and amozon sharing stock on some items. Not sure if there's any truth behind that though.
  • Thanks for your pros&cons on Ebay VS. BL!
    I guess i'll stick to Ebay this time!
  • @samiam391 - eBay charges 9% with a maximum charge of $100 for auction style listing. PayPal would take roughly 3% more. For fixed style listings selling for $1,000.01+ the fees are 11.0% of the initial $50.00, plus 6.0% of the next $50.01–$1,000.00, plus 2.0% of the remaining balance ($1,000.01–total cost to buyer). PayPal would also take roughly 3%.

    As for BrickLink, they charge 3% for the initial $500, 2% for the next $500, and 1% after that. If you're being paid by PayPal they would also charge roughly 3%.

    @Diggydoes - If you were to sell your MF on eBay with a fixed style listing for $1,500 you would pay roughly $117.50. If you were to sell it for $1,500 auction style listing you would pay roughly $145. If you were to sell it on BrickLink for $1,500 you would pay roughly $75.
  • 10198 is not available at any European online store (that I know of) for a while now.

    I've been looking on several ebays for weeks, and the cheapest buy-it-nows I see are around 185 euros while the original retail price was 150 euros I think.

    Then again, on bricklink there are still some to be had at around 150 euro and shipping from within the EU.

    One thing that should help 10198 gain in value over time is that I don't think LEGO will release another Tantive IV anytime soon.


  • edited March 2012
    @samiam391 - eBay charges 9% with a maximum charge of $100 for auction style listing. PayPal would take roughly 3% more. For fixed style listings selling for $1,000.01+ the fees are 11.0% of the initial $50.00, plus 6.0% of the next $50.01–$1,000.00, plus 2.0% of the remaining balance ($1,000.01–total cost to buyer). PayPal would also take roughly 3%.

    As for BrickLink, they charge 3% for the initial $500, 2% for the next $500, and 1% after that. If you're being paid by PayPal they would also charge roughly 3%.

    @Diggydoes - If you were to sell your MF on eBay with a fixed style listing for $1,500 you would pay roughly $117.50. If you were to sell it for $1,500 auction style listing you would pay roughly $145. If you were to sell it on BrickLink for $1,500 you would pay roughly $75.
    Listen to this guy, he has done his research.


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