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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value




    This is a handy (and strangely difficult to access) tool for calculating eBay fees and seeing what the most cost effective method for selling there would be.

    And as others have stated, for the layperson, PayPal fees are locked at 2.9% of the total bill.
  • Here's another good one (includes a reverse calculation too in case you have a figure in mind that you want to clear after fees):
  • In an attempt to steer this thread somewhat back on course, anyone have thoughts on the unimog? I know it still has quite a bit of shelf life left, but I am just curious as I may add some to my cart next time there is a BOGO at TRU.
  • Unimog will be great once it's EOL'd in 2013. For now, the powered excavator is the way to go for upcoming EOL'd sets.

    That said, I did grab a Unimog at the last BOGO from TRU.
  • One thing to make note of is the tires on the Unimog. They are similar in size to the ones on 8466, which are selling for quite a bit. If TLG doesn't release a set with tires like this again they will probably be worth the same as 8466's tires.
    About a year back I sold my 8466 tires for $80 alone!

    This is also a licensed Technic set, which will probably effect its aftermarket price. However, like mentioned previously, this set I believe is not very appealing to younger kids, and 8043 Excavator is appealing to all ages.
  • Not sure if it's been discussed in this thread, but when is the Maersk Train expected to say it's final goodbyes? I'd like to get one since I liked the Emerald Night train so much and am wondering if I can wait for a sale or should I get one at full price from lego now?

    Thanks :)
  • ^ The eBay costs above are about right. If you're a Power Seller the fees are 9% instead of 11%, so that takes the fees in the above example down to $115 for a diff of $40 over Bricklink. For the $40 I would rather sell on eBay, because I think the item will sell for more than $40 more than on Bricklink. My guess is that an auction on eBay will be seen by 20-50 times more people than on Bricklink. I don't think anywhere the number of people know about Bricklink as know about eBay.
  • ^ Yes, I am both a Power Seller and Top-rated Seller and I receive 20% off final value fees. To me it depends on the which sets you are selling. I've sold a few sets and minifigs for more on BrickLink than on eBay.
  • The Unimog will be good once it's gone, it's one of the best technic sets ever, and has lots of pneumatics which is very coveted by Technic builders. I think it has more potential than the excavator, which only has half the parts and a bunch of power functions, and is a much more generic vehicle than the Unimog.

    I think the large Technic sets are in general underrated, but there is a whole group of Lego consumers that are attracted to these sets and don't really care for the more traditional minifigure scaled sets like the modulars and Star Wars ships. In other words, you can hardly ever go wrong with a big Technic set.
  • edited April 2012
    ^ or just account for that price in the 'buy it now' price on eBay :-)
    Thanks @stephenvw
    I would try to come up with the final value fees but I find it a bit confusing.

    Again BL is cheaper but may take longer to sell
  • Hmm seems like a tougher decision than i've expected! Btw a little off-topic,but i live in germany and it seems that Ebay/Paypal-fees are a bit different than in the US (i always pay 5%paypal fees)!
  • Looks like the Red Cargo Train 3677 is on its way out. Currently reduced on s@h to £119.99.
  • ^ It can't be retiring. It just came out last year.
  • edited April 2012
    10198 is down to 180 units in stock @ Amazon

    I think this one is gonna do a lot better than people think
  • @TBB I hope not, I haven't got one yet and i'm kinda broke now :-)
  • edited April 2012
    Looks like the Red Cargo Train 3677 is on its way out. Currently reduced on s@h to £119.99.
    I know this set just came out, but then again it is a 'special edition' and there already is another cargo train out (though I thought the yellow one would go out of stock first) but usually does not discount (especially this heavily) something unless they want it gone, so this is interesting news, unless LEGO is geting in on the April Fools day and giving the buyers there a gift.
    I can say that unfortunately this is not discounted on the US site.
    hmm appears other countries in Europe also have the train discounted on
    Will need to keep an eye on the US site during the day

  • It seems like the Red Cargo train has been out of stock from the TRU web site for quite a while too.
  • It appears as though the Fairytale and Historic MF set is going to be EOL'd. Although I don't think it's been that popular, I personally like the set as it has tie-ins with many other sets and our kids like them. I decided to snag another one to help get the free tote, which I can use as a Christmas present.
  • When you say 'the Fairytale and Historic MF set is going to be EOL'd.' are you referring to the Millennium Falcon!?!
  • Fairytale and Historical MiniFigure set from Lego Shop at Home is what he was referring to. Its a collection of around 16 mini figs with accessories.
  • It's still rrp on lego UK.
  • @Cam_n-Stu - I still need to get the Millennium Falcon...just waiting for a decent deal before I pull the trigger. Unfortunately, when I wait for deals, sets are EOL'd. Let that be a warning...
  • ^The Falcon was available at pretty heavy discounts on Amazon at various points last winter. I think at one point it was as low as $105.99.
  • edited April 2012
    Actually the MF could be had for about $85 with incentive coupon codes, and combos with Discover through Target, maybe. Can't quite remember what the deal was.

    I have a feeling this MF will do extremely well in the aftermarket. I have yet to buy any. I guess it'll last through Xmas 2013. No rush here.

    A) But Lego will likely not produce one for awhile
    B) It's better built (from what I've heard) than previous editions
    C) Centerpiece set of the entire theme
  • You can take this for what its worth, but I stopped at my Lego store tonight to get parts for my son. All the FB's were gone. There was on Excavator on the shelf on sale for 10% off. I asked if they were being discontinued. The manager stated that both of them were. He stated that someone came in and purchased all 10 Fire Brigades and that was their last Excavator.
  • I heard the same from my store over the weekend. I was able to get a FB Saturday morning in store though. Also happy to report that the 2 FB I ordered on thursday from SAH shipped today.
  • My FB shipped from S@H yesterday as well,I wonder if it will have the replacement parts with it.
  • The reduction on the Red cargo train on UK S@H is a promotion throughout April, according to the store calendar. So I guess this is to stimulate sales rather than a sign of EOL approaching... but I'm not really a speculator so I'll leave you guys to make of it what you will ;-)
  • Is 8098 (Clone Turbo Tank) already EOL'd? Last time i'ce checked S@H it was gone (Germany). Can somebody confirm?
  • ^^^ Great news about the excavator. I bought several of them during the last few BOGO's thinking they would soon be retired.
  • Unimog will be next big technic to go, albeit around mid-2013.

    I think the MF will be EOL'd around the same time (just my opinion).

    I also believe the yellow cargo train will go before the red one does, just based on their release date.
  • ^ the 2 I just ordered say "10197 Fire Brigade V39" in my confirmation email. Not sure that means anything, but it will be interested to see.
    Mine just arrived in the mail today and it was a 11R2 batch. The invoice also indicated V39 so I think you can order with confidence (if they still have it in stock that is).

  • ^V39 just means it is for the North American market.
  • Looks like FB says 'Available' again at S@H. It keeps going from 'Available' to backorder.
  • How much the FB goes for upon actual "retirement" and into its first Xmas will tell the story of how GE and PS do as well. Agreed?
  • I know it's just my opinion, but I think the FB is generally a better, more playable set than a mall or a shop. I mean, who doesn't like fire engines and fire stations. The FB has been out longer, which could impact prices a bit in the ST, but the FB should do fine LT. JMO.
  • Anyone else notice that Amazon is running out of stock of Death Star? They haven't restocked it, while all the other big sets that will continue have restocked...

    FB and ME are the other big sets they have not restocked... GE, PS, TB have all been restocked, but those three have not.

    Of course, if we see 25% off DS on May 4th (doubt it, but you never know), will it last very long? :)
  • ^ This might sound dopey but what set is "ME"?

    ^^ I showed my wife who is pretty unknowledgeable about the Lego Modular building phenomena both the Fire Brigade and Grand Emporium boxes side by side. She liked GE a lot more. I then showed her the back side of FB's box and she immediately inquired about Green Grocer saying it was the "cutest".
  • ^ This might sound dopey but what set is "ME"?
    Market Emporium :-)

  • ^ I believe he's actually talking about Motorized Excavator 8043 ;-)
  • Yep, 8043...

    FB is probably not going to appeal to women as much, just given the material, but it will do well in retirement... Even more when Lego finally comes out with a modular police station.
  • Even more when Lego finally comes out with a modular police station.
    Yes please.
  • Just an update - the Fire Brigade that I ordered from S@H arrived today. The line item on the receipt says "Fire Brigade V39". The seals look original and say batch 11R2.
    My Fire Brigade from S@H arrived today also with the 11R2 seal.
    Almost looked like a reseal because the tape was a little loose.
  • Heh, apparently people have been watching Brickset as the 8043 is now out of stock until April 22nd....
  • Can anyone educate me as to the bad batch# of the Technic Excavator please?
    anyone know about this? want to make sure mine is not part of the bad batch
  • edited April 2012
    ^ I doubt anyone has to worry about that. What happened (if I recall correctly) is that very shortly after this set released, LEGO announced that it discovered a problem with the actuators in the set. They sent replacement parts out to those that bought the set at launch (along with a $10 "we're sorry" credit), and then they started putting the improved parts in every produced set thereafter. This set is almost two years old now, so it's almost impossible to imagine that anyone buying a sealed today will get one of those boxes from release week.
  • edited April 2012
    Just an update - the Fire Brigade that I ordered from S@H arrived today. The line item on the receipt says "Fire Brigade V39". The seals look original and say batch 11R2.

    My Fire Brigade from S@H arrived today also with the 11R2 seal.
    Almost looked like a reseal because the tape was a little loose.
    That may be because (if I recall correctly) LEGO apparently did take back batches of the 39R1 sets and added the pieces into them and resealed the boxes so it is possible I think that the seals may look 'adjusted'. Id be more concerned if you see moved seals at a retail store than via mail order (although I guess anything is possible)
  • Can anyone educate me as to the bad batch# of the Technic Excavator please?

    anyone know about this? want to make sure mine is not part of the bad batch
  • #8097, Boba Fett's Slave I is down to three units on Amazon UK. Is it time? Too bad I missed the time slot when it was cheaper, some months ago, as I'd like one for myself.. What do you think about its potential?
  • Great thread! I'm trying to get into Lego dealing, this could help a lot! You guys really seem to know your stuff, so I ask this; how long does it usually take before a set increases beyond it's RRP? I'm still wishing I had bought a shipping container full of UCS Millenium Falcons. The aftermarket value on those things is just insane.
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