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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • I agree with everyone.. AC had so much potential - when I heard the premise I thought of all the cool sets they could create - then I saw what they came up with and was rather disappointed - even my kids think they are lame.
  • chrome TC-14's and limited edition hulk minifigs are calling my name......


    I would be careful with minifigures in the aftermarket. While I am interested in these as well - I am not stock piling them (I'm sure you're not either) - their value is not long-lived - they offer a quick turnaround profit (considering they are "free" - and people are willing to pay $5-$10 for them).. I am buying Lego all the time - so I will pick up 2 or 3 while the promotion is going on and usually make $20 (I keep 1 for my collection and sell the other 2) total (so $40 for both MF you mentioned).

    In short: Don't bet the farm on these guys.
    Nope not going to stockpile but they are a welcome bonus. Chrome figs always do well and the hulk looks awesome and will be limited....look at past superhero minifg performance.
  • not to mention - they are free giveaways requiring other purchases. There are only two ways to "stock" up:
    1) buy other, much more expensive items to get single minifigs one at a time.
    2) buy them up in the secondary market from people who are selling them during May and shortly thereafter

    No one would do (1) en masse solely to get a bunch of minifigs, that would be silly. (2) could be done, and it wouldn't be unlike any other speculative buying.
  • I've been buying Lego for years now and because of personal reasons, I haven't been able to build a lot last year. The result was that a lot of sets I kept in my attic are still MISB. When considering to take one from the attic and build it, someone attended me on prices for discontinued sets. I.e. Emerald Night can now easily be sold for twice the price I paid for it.

    Since I know this now, I just buy 2 or 3 sets from each set I like. If I build one, I still have one in case it's price increases when the set is discontinued. If the price doesn't increase, I can still sell for MSRP. I'm not out to make a lot of money from Lego, but for me it's just a way to fund my hobby.

    I think it's not very different than the stock market: you're speculating on price increase. When I look at the popular dutch online marketplace, I have never seen discontinued / second hand sets without any reasonable bids, you just might not receive the price you expected.

    I just hope things don't work out like they did with i.e. stamps. I know of people who had vaults with entire sheets of stamps, worth thousands of euro's nominal value. These stamps can now be bought for 60% (!) of the nominal price. A large decrease of the original value.
  • edited April 2012
    I don't collect mini figures so these free mini fig offers are essentially free money for me. I'll probably break up all of my Lego purchases in $75 chunks so I can get a few of each figure and sell them off for about $10 each.
    @Renny- You can probably get around $20-$25 for each one on the immediate eBay aftermarket. Considering the TC is a chrome figure, maybe even $30-$40 if the market is good right after May 4th.
    chrome TC-14's and limited edition hulk minifigs are calling my name......


    I would be careful with minifigures in the aftermarket. While I am interested in these as well - I am not stock piling them (I'm sure you're not either) - their value is not long-lived - they offer a quick turnaround profit (considering they are "free" - and people are willing to pay $5-$10 for them).. I am buying Lego all the time - so I will pick up 2 or 3 while the promotion is going on and usually make $20 (I keep 1 for my collection and sell the other 2) total (so $40 for both MF you mentioned).

    In short: Don't bet the farm on these guys.
    I wouldn't bet the farm on them, but I wouldn't completely discourage buying them up either... in other words bet part of the farm on them. Tc-14 has already gotten a lot of praise, and as a huge minifigure collector I'm already dying in anticipation of May 4th just to have a few. It should do better than the ARF trooper from last year which went for $25 in the aftermarket (same sort of promotion idea). The figure should continue to rise, as this is still a promotion figure with limited numbers.
    Taking Chrome C-3PO for example (obviously more rare, but still...), it was $100 as close as 2 years ago, now it's fetching $250. There's a market for figures, it just isn't as rewarding as the sets and takes a little longer for it to get up there. But for someone like me with limited space for huge amounts of NIB sets, it takes the cake.

  • Thanks @samiam391. With "rebates" like that I could convince myself to spend a bit more :)
  • Yes, I bought a Tantive IV last year during May the 4th for $125 (if I remember correctly) and received the ARF Trooper. Shortly after I sold the ARF Trooper for $26. It was as if I had gotten the Tantive IV for $100 free shipping and no tax at the time. I hope to be able to do the same on a few sets with the TC-14 as I expect it to easily be $25.
  • edited April 2012
    Not sure if this is news or not, but I was just browsing the US Lego online shop for Star Wars stuff, and noticed (for the first time) that this kit (10215 / Obi Wan's UCS Starfighter) gone. It was there just a few days ago! Has it finally been discontinued?

    As I recall, Lego had it discounted to $59.99 for a while. I now see it is being offered at Amazon for $98.99 which suggests it has been discontinued and already the price hikes are commencing.

  • I believe it has been unavailable for a little while now. I may be mistaken?
  • A reminder, $100 was the original MSRP. This could ultimately be the weakest UCS set of all.
  • A reminder, $100 was the original MSRP. This could ultimately be the weakest UCS set of all.
    Yes, but it has been so heavily discounted by Lego for so long, I assume Amazon's price had to fall to keep pace. Regardless, looks like the kit is gone.

    I know it is not popular at all, but that makes it a good candidate for appreciation. 10 years from now it will be the obscure kit no one has in their collection and prices could go up as a result, at least for future collectors who feel the need to have every kit in the UCS series. For regular fans, if interest is low now, it will likely be low in the future too.

    As a rule, the UCS Star Wars kits attract my interest more than any other type of Lego kit. So I hemmed and hawed over this one for a while, but could never bring myself to buy it. I just didn't have any interest in it and its piece count is too low.
  • Reminds me of the UCS Naboo Starfighter. Super small piece count and from what I have read it didn't sell that well, even at $40. I just bought one msib for $280 *sigh*
  • Yes, but that was almost 10 years ago... :)

    The sweet spot I think for 10215 is going to be this Christmas, I see $150 happening as a real option, and while Christmas 2013 might see more, that is the bulk of the short term gains to be had.

    I did pickup more of this set from Lego during free shipping, so I've got about 50 of them set aside, we shall see. :)
  • Not sure if this is news or not, but I was just browsing the US Lego online shop for Star Wars stuff, and noticed (for the first time) that this kit is gone. It was there just a few days ago! Has it finally been discontinued?

    As I recall, Lego had it discounted to $59.99 for a while. I now see it is being offered at Amazon for $98.99 which suggests it has been discontinued and already the price hikes are commencing.

    Just because people are trying to sell it for $100 on Amazon doesn't mean it's actually selling for that. No one is getting $100 for that. It's currently *actually* selling for between $50-$60 on ebay, where I envision it staying for quite a while, given its extreme lack of apparent popularity.
  • Regarding AC HQ... Having recently come out of the dark ages, I didn't realize the parts value of this set until I read something here and by then it was sold out.

    Since my interest lies in the city/trains/modular themes, I haven't considered the great MOC parts available in other themes' sets. This is something I need to work on.

    If anyone that snagged several of these at half-off wants to unload one or two (at cost), I'd appreciate the good will gesture. I definitely want to open them and use the parts.

    -Mike
  • I really like this set. For the $60 I paid for it I am quite pleased.
  • edited April 2012
    Just because people are trying to sell it for $100 on Amazon doesn't mean it's actually selling for that. No one is getting $100 for that. It's currently *actually* selling for between $50-$60 on ebay, where I envision it staying for quite a while, given its extreme lack of apparent popularity.
    While that is true, don't say they aren't selling, they are... Abit slowly...

    But if the FBA selling price is $99, then the seller is actually getting about $75 after the various fees kick in, plus you run the risk of the opened set being returned for a full refund.

    So they do sell at that price, but there is no free ride. :)
  • I really like this set. For the $60 I paid for it I am quite pleased.
    This, I boguth one from LEgo, I figured at 60 its a fair deal. The model itself is fairly large too, surprisingly so for the piece count, and the build was actually fun and interesting in how they did some of the SNOTs stuff.

  • I purchased an Obi Wan's UCS Starfighter a couple months ago from Amazon for $63 with the intent to build with my kids. Now if I can only find it in the stack of boxes...
  • Legos have value besides the obvious. The set itself has value. The parts have value. You can part-out the set and sell the parts or minifigures. Some companies like Brick Forge and Brick Arms may melt down Lego parts to make the items they sell. Unlike stamps, baseball cards or action figures, people buy Legos for all sorts of purposes. Making ABS plastic needs petroleum for raw materials and energy and with the costs of petroleum constantly rising I can see why sets go up in price or even double after a few years of being retired.
  • Obi Wans UCS Starfighter is worthless. It will take a solid two years for anyone to make money off of that set. It was discounted almost immediately by Lego and Amazon. That's a sign of an unpopular set.
  • 10215 is a nice detailed set, but it's bigger than minifigure scale meaning it came with none, which put off it's taget audience - kids who enjoyed the prequel trilogy.

    UCS buying when in circulation and more so EOL is generally done by AFOLs. I don't think there's much love for this model with the AFOLs. It will still appreciate if you bought it at half price, but the only thing that will seriously bump the price up (IMO) is if there are very few MSIB examples around to choose from. Quite a buy for the ones that part out sets though.
  • 10215 will have the same fate as Home One.....steer clear as there are much better alternatives to sink your money into IMO.
  • Why did Home One do so poorly? I think it looks like a cracking set.
  • I know there is some speculation about the Fire Brigade going down the same path as the Cafe Corner but I recently had an email from LEGO stating this:

    "In terms of availability of the sets you asked for, I have the following information for you:

    10197 (Fire Brigade) Discontinued end 2013
    10211 (Grand Emporium) Discontinued end 2014
    10218 (Pet Shop) Discontinued end 2014

    These dates are just a guideline though, this can change. To be honest, I would buy another set now to be safe."
  • Why did Home One do so poorly? I think it looks like a cracking set.
    I believe it did poorly for the following reasons:
    1) too much money(RRP) for the set siez (IMO, and I'm guessing others as well)
    2) TRU (and Amazon too I think) constantly had these on sale so many people bought these at 70-80 dollars per.
    3) Then at the end of the run LEGO had to HEAVILY discount these to sell and had them for 50 (or was it 55)USD dollars per, and A LOT of them (I went to a LEGO store the day after Black Friday and they still had about 12 (at least) left.
    4) Ackbar was included in a magnet set (before they started gluing them) so the figure rarity went out the window so the set really was not sought after for a figure.
  • I know there is some speculation about the Fire Brigade going down the same path as the Cafe Corner but I recently had an email from LEGO stating this:

    "In terms of availability of the sets you asked for, I have the following information for you:

    10197 (Fire Brigade) Discontinued end 2013
    10211 (Grand Emporium) Discontinued end 2014
    10218 (Pet Shop) Discontinued end 2014

    These dates are just a guideline though, this can change. To be honest, I would buy another set now to be safe."
    I just find EOL numbers dubious.
    I seriously doubt they will EOL two mod at once....
    Fire Brigade is not available (and Im not sure it has been for the last few months )on TRU, but I have not really been looking for FB on TRU so maybe they still get them in, not sure. BUT Walmart no longer has them online, nor is Amazon selling them (That is Amazon themselves not a seller selling on Amazon).
    I think only Target has them currently anywhere else than LEGO, and that is because they never put them on sale.

    Could this be true?
    Sure, they could be trying to finally squash the resellers but I doubt it is that. Maybe they have heard enough complaints about "oh I just got into LEGO and missed it" but again where do you draw the line for ending a line then?

    Not to mention Id like to see if anyone else makes the same query and gets the same answers... because I thought someone else got data last year saying FB was gone at end of 12
    AND if LEGO really is putting out EOL dates then I need to ask them about every SW set and other sets to know when to buy before EOL...


  • ^ keep in mind that it looks like that Haunted House that was leaked is probably considered a modular (from what I've heard anyway) so EOL'ing two mods at once may not be out of the question.
  • Why did Home One do so poorly? I think it looks like a cracking set.
    Personally, I'd take the Hoth Echo Base (7879) over Home One every time! I was never overly impressed with the Home One set to be honest.
  • @Bosstone100. I don't think the haunted house will be a modular. From what I've seen it doesn't follow the same build design. Most noticeably it doesn't allow for connecting to other modulars on either side. I have a feeling it's going to be the first in a series of Halloween themed sets (not monster fighters either). More like the Christmas themed winter village. That being said. I agree with the late 2013 EOL for the FB. I have heard similar reports.
  • I will be completely astonished if Fire Brigade lasts through this year's Black Friday (if it even makes it there to begin with).
  • ^ I doubt it. I'd say a couple months until its gone.
  • No offense intended, but I wouldn't put too much stock in EOL dates that suddenly appear from the ether.
  • Getting a little tired of the FB and GE retirement guesses. Buy some, throw'em in a closet and forget'em for awhile.

    Moving along, I'm curious how the Marvel/DC and LOTR launches will impact the main theme sales?
  • Getting a little tired of the FB and GE retirement guesses. Buy some, throw'em in a closet and forget'em for awhile.

    Moving along, I'm curious how the Marvel/DC and LOTR launches will impact the main theme sales?
    And by 'main' you mean? Ninjago? :)
    Btw I concur with fb and ge talk... Get a few and let's move on.

  • edited April 2012
    Getting a little tired of the FB and GE retirement guesses. Buy some, throw'em in a closet and forget'em for awhile.

    Moving along, I'm curious how the Marvel/DC and LOTR launches will impact the main theme sales?
    Im not sure it will, if anything you'd think it would help boost City sales as your heroes need something to defend :-)
  • For what it's worth, Amazon is showing FB in stock. Only 17 in stock, but more on the way.
  • For what it's worth, Amazon is showing FB in stock. Only 17 in stock, but more on the way.
    It has been a while since they had this back in stock. 11 left.
  • I know one thing... the modulars are outstanding for super hero scenes. My son is having a ball. We've only got the FB and GE but that's good enough for the time being.

    As of today, the avengers are kind of taking over the buildings, lol. Can't wait for the spiderman set. Nothing like web slinging on modulars!
  • Getting a little tired of the FB and GE retirement guesses. Buy some, throw'em in a closet and forget'em for awhile.

    Moving along, I'm curious how the Marvel/DC and LOTR launches will impact the main theme sales?

    I'm getting a little tired of all the wild guesses on here ; )

    It did make me laugh when I saw people accusing others of jumping on the band wagon and selling retired sets. Surely this whole topic just promotes this.
  • edited April 2012
    Getting a little tired of the FB and GE retirement guesses. Buy some, throw'em in a closet and forget'em for awhile.
    I agree
  • I wonder what impact the Marvel/DC/LOTR launches will have on the collectors market. Each of these core fan bases will be now drawn into Lego. But true Lego first collectors may have be choosier about purchases.

    Star Wars could take a dip here.
  • I wonder what impact the Marvel/DC/LOTR launches will have on the collectors market. Each of these core fan bases will be now drawn into Lego. But true Lego first collectors may have be choosier about purchases.

    Star Wars could take a dip here.
    Maybe, but isn't it likely that because of the substantial overlap between the core fan bases for Star Wars and comics / LOTR that new non-LEGO collectors may come in for Batman or LOTR, see the Star Wars stuff, and think "I want that, too!" Money limits aside, I mean :).

  • 9349 Fairytale and historic fig set sold out at S@H US
  • Apparent 10197 FB is showing on backorder again, will ship in 30 days
  • how will the Virgin Atlantic LEGO Glider promo set do?
  • ^ Your guess is as good as mine :-)
  • @Playftl regarding the promo set, it is too early to say.
    it depends of the availability. 7688 and 7696 have been widely available the last two years while 7643 was less available (ie no major airlines)
  • To @madforlego's point - I rarely see the Fairytale & historic figure set mentioned, but it always seemed very cool to me. There are still some in stock on Amazon (66) for around $40. I think I will order a set for the collection. Not sure if it is retiring, it has not been out for very long. Not sure if it has much collector appeal. But at $2 per minifig, plus all the other pieces, it seems like a cool little set.
  • I picked up a Fairytale and Historic MF set from S@H when it went on sale. I think it could do okay down the road. To me, it's like a combination of the CMFs and Advent Calendar sets. I do know the Community MF set did extremely well until they reintroduced it.
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