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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • ^There's actually no HP theme park, per se. It's a small portion of the Islands of Adventure section of Universal, probably only slightly larger than the section of Hollywood Studios that is Star Wars themed. That said, I'm inclined to agree that HP has absolutely no chance of replicating Star Wars' success from a commercial standpoint. Star Wars is the only franchise I can think of that has been so blatantly milked to death without most of its supporters turning on it. I could be wrong, but I feel if Rowling went down the same path as Lucas, it would almost certainly blow up in her face. The continued marketability of Star Wars is pretty anomalous (and a bit baffling), and I say that as a huge Star Wars geek.
  • @y2josh - Wow, I just looked up the HP theme park, and realized you are right! It was marketed as it's own theme park, but on Google Maps, it is just a small section of a larger theme park.
  • ^ I'm heading there in a few weeks time (kill me now.. I hate Harry Potter).. but my gf loves it.. and she gets whatever she wants.. haha..

    It's a long ways off, but I think Monster Fighters will do very well when they reach EOL.. maybe I'm just extremely biased, but they look like the first Lego created theme that seem worth your while.. thoughts?
  • edited April 2012
    ^Hate Harry Potter or not... I cannot stress enough how imperative it is you try a Butterbeer before you leave. You'll have to wait in line an unreasonably long time... and it's overpriced (but what isn't at a theme park?)... but man... that drink is delicious.

    As for Monster Fighters... I think the sets are really well designed, and certainly unique... but that won't mean anything if they don't sell well to begin with. If I had to guess right now, though, the train and the castle seem like safe bets to do well after EOL.
  • The train is for sure where I would put the most value. It's a unique set at a decent price point. I don't think you'll see a similar set ever released again and I bet it will be super hard to find in stores as we get closer to October.
  • Set 1382, Scary Laboratory and the others from that line may give you a small indication of how monster fighters will do. The set was $50 new and can be had for upwards of $175+. I got mine on clearance for probably $20 or so and sold them for around $120ish a few years ago. Not a bad return, but who wants to hold a set for 10 years to resell? Personally, while I like the monster theme, am predicting a flop. I fully expect to see most of these sets on clearance after Christmas. Which honestly, is fine with me. I'd love to pick all of them up at 50% off or greater. Probably the only way I'll buy them. I can't exactly say why I think they will do poorly, just a hunch. I don't actually think they are well designed. The figures are great, but that is about it for me. I do like the Castle, but the Train... meh. Seems way to cheesy, even for the target audience. But, I also would have never predicted Ninjago would be as hot as it is, so I don't pretend I know. Just offering up an opinion.
  • ^ Agreed, who saw Ninjago coming a year ago?

    I honestly think that part of retail product development is doing your homework and testing, then throwing enough stuff against the wall that some of it sticks and makes you tons of money, while you just quietly let the dogs go.

    Lego has tried with Cars and Toy Story, for all I know they are selling well, but they sure don't seem like it. Yet they came out with another around of Cars sets this year, which I did not expect. So either Lego has paid their licence fee and might as well release *something*, or they are selling better than we know.
  • So either Lego has paid their licence fee and might as well release *something*, or they are selling better than we know.
    I'm going with the former on that one. Just found multiple Flo's V8 Cafe and the Spy Jet Rescue set for 75% off at my local Meijer. That series might not have been so bad if the 2nd Cars movie wasn't so terrible. LEGO kinda missed the boat there. If they could have had the license during the first movie, probably a different story.
  • I picked up a bunch of Cars on clearance after Christmas as well, none of it has been worth owning... :(

    Toy Story is similar, none of it seems to really sell well, and none of it is rising in price. I no longer buy any of it, even on sale. :(

    Oh well, live and learn.
  • The new Green Dragon coming this summer for Ninjago is going to be an instant classic. 1,317 parts for $120, plus a 4 headed dragon, they'll sell very well and do amazing in the after market. Might dampen demand for the current dragon sets however...

    So what are everyone's thoughts there...

    2260 and 2521 are both going like gangbusters in the aftermarket... will that continue once there is a "new" dragon on the market? Is the new set going to reduce demand for the pair of retired sets, since now there will be a "new" dragon to buy?

    Will 2507 retire this summer quietly when the new set comes out (after all, they have the same price and similar part counts)?
  • A) As much as I hate Ninjago, I really like these dragons. Having said that, I think as long as the Ninjago merchandise train is running full steam, these dragons will continue to do well... not to mention that the new dragon is very cool.
    B) Mostly unrelated... LEGO dragons in general have come a LONG way since I was a kid and I hope this translates spectacularly when an eventual Smaug set is released for Hobbit/LotR.
  • ^ What have you got against Ninjago? My son is having a blast with it, between the books, cartoon, and Lego, it is almost his favorite! (nothing beats Star Wars of course)

    He still wants to know when he gets a "real" R2-D2, and for that matter, when am I going to get a "real" lightsaber... :)

    Come to think of it, I want to know as well! :)
  • Ok, now I know there are crazy asking prices...

    http://www.amazon.com/Lego-Duplo-Legoville-Transporter-5684/dp/B0042HOTV8/

    However... $1,200 for THAT?

    (or at least it was listed at $1,200 with 3 in stock when I looked at it)
  • Well... I'm an adult... so Ninjago isn't supposed to be 'for' me to begin with... but even as an adult who doesn't strictly limit himself to AFOL sets... Ninjago is just too cartoony for me (sans the dragons... which I'm quite fond of). Still, I think it will perform quite well while it's popular, though I don't look for these sets to hold their value long past when (or, I suppose 'if' seems more likely at this point) LEGO abandons the theme.
  • Ok, now I know there are crazy asking prices...

    http://www.amazon.com/Lego-Duplo-Legoville-Transporter-5684/dp/B0042HOTV8/

    However... $1,200 for THAT?

    (or at least it was listed at $1,200 with 3 in stock when I looked at it)
    Yeah... I'm not so sure about that...

    What is that? Like $100 a piece? And not even useful pieces, at that.
  • ^^They're just a wee bit cheaper on BrickLink :)
    http://www.bricklink.com/search.asp?itemID=99055

    I'm interested in the fate of 2507 too. I was watching it on Amazon and the 999-in-the-cart trick failed me. It was allowing 999 for days so I thought I'd wait for the price to drop. Then just a few hours after the last time I saw 999+ available, it was gone. So either the numbers aren't reliable or they're selling them like mad.
  • ^ Nuts, isn't it?

    I get that he is the only seller on Amazon of that item (however now that I've posted it here, I doubt that will last), but that is insane, he'll never sell one at that price.

    Will he?
  • ^^If you're interested in the Fire Temple, I'd pick one up while you can still order them from S@H. It's on backorder there until June 9, but outside of Target and Wal-Mart (which both have it marked up at least $11 over retail for some strange reason), it's out of stock everywhere.
  • http://www.bricklink.com/search.asp?pg=1&q=2507&advOpt=Y&sz=25&searchSort=P

    Take a look a the first listing on Bricklink for 2507...

    How is it "NEW" when it was built for the picture, and why it is listed as "COMPLETE" when it is not the whole set?

    Did I miss something in listing 101?
  • ^ At least he is partly honest, and people know i is not new, even when he says it is. I assume he means the dragon is complete. Although I hate things like that for screwing up the price guide. Bricklink needs a report function, so each seller can have a warning if they list things wrongly, then a 30 day suspension if caught doing it again.


  • I'm a big fan of the modulars but as I've only just come out of my dark ages I've sadly missed out on the current EOL models. I was considering getting a few copies of FB and GE to sell on in the future to cover the costs of the previous sets. Do you think they'll ever approach the prices of the originals?

    I'm presuming that the originals (CC, MS and GG) are approaching their ceiling price and aren't likely to increase much more in value?
  • ^ Agreed, who saw Ninjago coming a year ago?

    I honestly think that part of retail product development is doing your homework and testing, then throwing enough stuff against the wall that some of it sticks and makes you tons of money, while you just quietly let the dogs go.

    Lego has tried with Cars and Toy Story, for all I know they are selling well, but they sure don't seem like it. Yet they came out with another around of Cars sets this year, which I did not expect. So either Lego has paid their licence fee and might as well release *something*, or they are selling better than we know.
    The best test market is going to an 8-year-old's birthday party, and see what gets the ooohs and aaaahs. Luckily my daughter in is that age range, so I get to ask a lot of kids what they're into with Lego. There was one party last year, of 18 gifts, 16 were Lego. :)
  • Over half the presents at my 6 year old son's Birthday party were Lego as well. :) You're right about that...

    More Star Wars than anything else...
  • I see a lot of folks predicting poor sales for the Monster Hunters and LoTR sets and I just don't see it. I think the Monster Hunters sets look fantastic and little kids love spooky stuff like Frankenstein and Dracula. I don't necessarily think it will be a theme that will run for a few years but I do think it will do well, especially in time for Halloween.

    Also, many are truly underestimating the appeal of LoTR. This isn't PoTC that wore out it's welcome in both LEGO and the move theaters. The Hobbit will do insanely well at the box office and that IMO will push sales of the sets and renew interest in the first three films. It's certainly a gamble being made by TLG but the theme could have massive cross generational appeal amongst kids and AFOL's. If the Hobbit bombs in theaters, well then the sets would be dead in the water.
  • Speaking of the MF series.

    Now's the time to come up with some solid Scooby Gang custom figs. Serious money there.

    There's a poor quality set on eBay for $175. Yikes. Strangely, his custom Scooby villians (second link) aren't bad at all. But $38. Another yikes.

    Packaging up all the monster CMF figs would be good too. Those are gonna be in higher demand.

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/Custom-LEGO-Scooby-Doo-Gang-Shaggy-Velma-Fred-Daphne-Minifig-Minifigure-Display-/170825214626?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item27c5f9eaa2

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/Custom-LEGO-Scooby-Doo-Zombie-Villain-Minifig-Minifigure-Display-/170760005882?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item27c216e8fa
  • I must have missed the part where people said LotR was going to sell poorly... That would really surprise me. I wonder how much overlap there is in the fanbase between LotR and HP...

    I think Cars and Toy Story suffer(ed) from being beneath the prime Lego age, more primary school and daycare than recess and elementary school. Which is where Ninjago appears to be shining. The Pixar lines are something an older sibling would easily pass over as too "babyish," especially if baby sibling is right there going ga-ga for Woody and Buzz. Ninjas, dragons, weapons: if there's any adult who fails to see the allure this has to kids (i.e. boys) maybe we ought to be humbled when we show them Tower Bridge and they go, "What's it do?"

    I sincerely hope Monster Fighters is a flop cuz I'll buy it like crazy when it hits half off!! I'm loving the look of it so far. I'm also very intrigued to see how this indecision regarding HP and Ninjago plays out over the next few months and years. It could be quite the crucible for collectors and resellers.
  • ^^ Those Scooby figures show why noses and shaped faces just don't work on Lego figures. They look like poor quality toys, rather than Lego minifigures to me. The bodies are not bad, but the heads are just wrong.
  • I must have missed the part where people said LotR was going to sell poorly... That would really surprise me. I wonder how much overlap there is in the fanbase between LotR and HP...
    They present two very conflicting views of what is fantasy. Although I grew up reading LotR (and Dragonlance) I picked up the HP books to see with my eyes the reasons of all this success.. but I cannot see it (I am halfway the 3rd book). I am also reading ASoIaF and that is much more compelling IMHO. These genres portray a much more realistic version of a fantasy world and that's why I like it best. And besides, Gandalf would eat Harry for breakfast any day ;)
  • I see the 2507 Fire Temple doing really well when it goes away. Even parted out, there's siginificant value there already.
  • Monster Fighters Zombie set is going to do very well.. just looks at the CMF zombie for evidence.. zombies are big right now.. and probably will be for the next few years..
  • ^^^@AvengerDr thanks for nod to Dragonlance. Brought back a rush of memories with one word. I recall the "Chronicles" to be a riveting read as a high schooler, being more real and less fantastical than LOTR. It would be a good inspiration for the next generic "Kingdoms" line once LOTR has its run.
  • edited April 2012
    Dragonlance doesn't hold up very well. I started re-reading the first Chronicles book and the writing is fairly bad. The characters are engaging though and that's why I think the books were so popular to begin with.
  • edited April 2012
    ^Time is not always kind, but I believe it probably is much better in memory than to be revisited. It's a shame, because I still remember the suspense and agony when Sturm fell in battle as rest of the group waged on fighting.

    They need to bring some character to the generic Kingdoms line, like individually named Knights that you can recognize beyond their affiliation to Lions faction or not. Similar to how they did Ninjago, with names for each colored ninja and their unique backstory. Can you imagine the King's Castle set including a team of knights like King Arthur's Roundtable, each with their own special weapon and armor? Lancelot in Medium Blue and Pearl Gold armor please!
  • ^ and brave sir robin with the coconuts.
  • Like zoinks, those scooby figs are creepy. Meddling kids
  • These genres portray a much more realistic version of a fantasy world and that's why I like it best. And besides, Gandalf would eat Harry for breakfast any day ;)
    Not gonna lie, the sheer ridiculousness of that statement made me laugh out loud. (No offense intended)

    Way off topic, but last time I checked, Harry Potter was the only one of those books to actually take place in the "real world" all the while doing a pretty reasonable job of balancing the wizarding world with ours. That said, it is still FANTASY. And while I love both LOTR and HP, comparing Gandalf to Harry is not fair. Compare him to Dumbledore and you've got an interesting comparison. Also, as far as the SOIAF books, sheesh. If you want to read about tertiary characters and whatever fleeting thought Martin seems to find interesting, by all mean. He started to wear me down by book 3. I had to take a break from the series. It seemed to be going nowhere.

    Back on topic... LOTR Lego should do reasonably well. I don't think they will really be popular with kids, but adults will hopefully pick up that slack. I'm kind of torn on it. I don't know if I'll buy any of the sets. Definitely not at MSRP. Of course, the only sets I'm buying at MSRP right now are Friends sets since I never see them on sale. I want a set for my little girl.

  • just curious, as to earlier comments that Cars and Toy Story did not do so well as they were aimed at too young of an audience, does anyone know what the movie 'rating' for the upcoming Hobbit movie will likely be? Is it possibly aimed at slightly too old of an audience in terms of LEGO sets?
    0.02
  • The Lord of the Rings movies were all PG-13 in the US. I imagine the Hobbit will shoot for around the same rating. However, that rating will be loosely adhered to by many parents. I can remember seeing the LotR movies in theaters and several kids under the age of ten being present.

    Also, there are tons of adults who will probably want some of the LotR sets and will get them with the excuse of "it's for the kids." It might take until we get closer to the film's release though for them to pick up.
  • In my personal opinion, LOTR was pushing it for a PG-13 rating... I think they deserved an R rating myself...

    My wife and I just started watching LOTR again this past week, picked up a deal recently on Amazon for the Blu-Ray Extended edition (my lord, 12 HOURS!)

    There are some really adult themes and scary parts for kids, I'm actually a bit surprised Lego did this, now that we're rewatching the movies. There is nothing there for kids, the whole movie series is completely inappropriate for kids.

    As for the LOTR Lego sets, they aren't aimed at adults, they lack the detail that will get me interested, so I'm not sure who the target audience is.

    I predict they will either do REALLY well, or bomb terribly... my money is that they are more like PotC than HP. HP was watchable by kids, PotC was not (or shouldn't have been), neither is LOTR.
  • just curious, as to earlier comments that Cars and Toy Story did not do so well as they were aimed at too young of an audience, does anyone know what the movie 'rating' for the upcoming Hobbit movie will likely be? Is it possibly aimed at slightly too old of an audience in terms of LEGO sets?
    0.02
    Yes, that is now my line of thinking...

    Cars and Toy Story *should* have blown off the shelves, but I'm watching the retired prices of some of those sets and it is just terrible. Then again, non-AFOL sets don't tend to race up in price as much, so perhaps that is a poor indication, however take a look at the best seller list on Amazon, or the sales rank. Those tell me none of the Cars/Toy Story sets really sell very well.
  • Wow a discussion :) Thanks a lot everyone for such informative read.
    Being from a secondary LEGO market, I have experienced something with LEGO dragons. The ones that came out in Fantasy Era. I was not able to get those sets back then so I actually paid 20-25 US$ for the Green and the Black dragon each (though right after I received these dragons I was able to find their respective sets as well :P) so the price I paid for the dragon was a lot in my eyes.

    More is expected from Ninjago dragons. I had ordered 5 of the first red wave Lightning dragon sets, and the dragons in them got sold out immediately for the price of the sets :P crazy right.

    Still waiting to get a good price on the Fire Temple.


  • These genres portray a much more realistic version of a fantasy world and that's why I like it best. And besides, Gandalf would eat Harry for breakfast any day ;)


    Not gonna lie, the sheer ridiculousness of that statement made me laugh out loud. (No offense intended)
    Way off topic, but last time I checked, Harry Potter was the only one of those books to actually take place in the "real world" all the while doing a pretty reasonable job of balancing the wizarding world with ours. That said, it is still FANTASY.
    It's all about the "Suspension of disbelief". Most of those series exist in their own world, with no references to Earth. Thus, it is far easier (for me) to accept that on Westeros or Middle Earth there are Dragons and that on Arrakis there are giant sand worms. On the other hand, Harry Potter, being set on Earth, fails in suspending my disbelief because there is no magical wall at King's Cross (or Euston). "Believe me, I have been there" :D

    De gustibus non disputandum est.. I prefer the fantasy genre as defined by Tolkien and all the others that were inspired by him, where wizards have staves and not wands, where elves are pointy-eared human-like beings and not imps. It's the same with Vampires and the like. LeStat, even True Blood's vampires.. these are "canonical" vampires, as in Bram Stoker and Anne Rice's novels. Twilight's vampires are in another league. There may be those who prefer the former and those who prefer the latter (or both!)..

    And while I love both LOTR and HP, comparing Gandalf to Harry is not fair. Compare him to Dumbledore and you've got an interesting comparison.
    Let's settle it with an epic rap battle!! :D

    Back on topic... LOTR Lego should do reasonably well. I don't think they will really be popular with kids, but adults will hopefully pick up that slack. I'm kind of torn on it. I don't know if I'll buy any of the sets. Definitely not at MSRP. Of course, the only sets I'm buying at MSRP right now are Friends sets since I never see them on sale. I want a set for my little girl.
    Much will depend on how well The Hobbit fares.. Even though the story is much more deep, the book reads as if aimed to a younger audience than LotR.
  • @LegoFanTexas - In my personal opinion, LOTR was pushing it for a PG-13 rating... I think they deserved an R rating myself...
    While I love LotR, I completely agree with your statement. It is "fantasy," there was little to no language, and little to no sex (just some mugging), but the violence was completely off the scale. The two Hobbit movies will also be very violent; especially the second movie with the huge battle scene at the end. To be honest, I don't remember LotRs ever being marked to kids. HP, Cars, PoP, PotC and TS were. In fact, I don't remember HP being marketed to adults early on. Adults just kind of latched on to HP...
    @111ins - just curious, as to earlier comments that Cars and Toy Story did not do so well as they were aimed at too young of an audience, does anyone know what the movie 'rating' for the upcoming Hobbit movie will likely be? Is it possibly aimed at slightly too old of an audience in terms of LEGO sets?
    0.02
    I would also add PoP to your list. Disney pulled out all stops on marketing that movie (a year in advance). It had the same "issues" as LotR (VIOLENCE, but little language or sex). When my wife and I watched it, she said it was one of the more violent kids-marketed movies she had ever seen.

    So...I would expect LotR to do better with AFOLs (including the aftermarket). HP and PotC were popular with adults and kids, so I definitely expect those to do well down the road. Finally, Cars, TS and PoP may do just okay down the road with future AFOLS (esp. Cars and TS). TS is a trilogy classic and will do better...PoP is basically an unknown and will likely do poorly (except by niche buyers). Personally, I liked many of the TS and PoP sets, but Cars is just too "kiddish" for my tastes.
  • These genres portray a much more realistic version of a fantasy world and that's why I like it best. And besides, Gandalf would eat Harry for breakfast any day ;)


    Not gonna lie, the sheer ridiculousness of that statement made me laugh out loud. (No offense intended)
    To me the "realistic" factor comes from how much or how little I have to actively suspend my disbelief. It is influenced by how many plot holes the author leaves and how internally consistent the fictional world is. Tolkien, as an example, to me created an very internally consistent world that took only one "suspension of disbelief" to accept. Rowling, on the other hand, seems very sloppy. I constantly have to ignore things in her books to enjoy them (but they are still enjoyable).

    That is probably the reason that Tolkien's works are considered by some to be the greatest fiction works of the 20th century, while Rawlings works are juvenile fiction.

    Don't get me wrong, they each have their place, but I completely get the point made above about a "realistic version" of fantasy.
  • Hmmm, interesting discussion. I suspect LotR will do pretty well, although who really knows for sure. One thing I do know, my 9 year old son is really excited about these coming out.
  • That is probably the reason that Tolkien's works are considered by some to be the greatest fiction works of the 20th century, while Rawlings works are juvenile fiction.
    Precisely the reason I think LotR has immense potential to lure another AFOL demographic. However, Lego's obligation is obviously to provide a faithful rendition of what can be seen in the films, not what people have loved in the books. And I'm pretty sure The Hobbit was required reading for me in middle school. Having been unwilling to watch any of the movies, I don't know how much material there is for Lego to render, but I can't imagine LotR being only a one or two year run. That would kinda undermine the whole "epic" premise. Yet what do we think of Lego's willingness to chance a large and intricate LotR set aimed at the 14+/PG-13 age group?

  • Doesn't anyone remember Temple of Doom? That's about as hard of a PG rated movie as you can get. I don't remember LOTR having someone's heart ripped out and then burned alive.
  • Doesn't anyone remember Temple of Doom? That's about as hard of a PG rated movie as you can get. I don't remember LOTR having someone's heart ripped out and then burned alive.
    Yep...it was the worst of the IJ flicks to be sure. Gore just for the sake of gore shows lack of creativity on the part of the writer. Actually, I think it ruined the series. We haven't even let our oldest kid watch it. Even the 4th released movie with "the human sarcophagus" Harrison Ford was better. The first film was a classic, and Ambush in Cairo lego set is one of the best IJ sets released by Lego.
  • Here's what I've been saying with LotR... and why I'll be watching it closely without investing anything into it right away: LotR is a license that should have been marketed to AFOLs to begin with, but it's very clearly being marketed to kids. This seems like a problem to me, as I doubt kids are as likely to get behind LotR as they were HP or are with Super Heroes. So that leaves AFOLs to drive the line... and while I have no doubt many AFOLs will get behind the line, I've found the sets to be somewhere between mediocre and flat-out awful. So to me, it seems like the biggest supporter of these sets will be AFOLs who won't mind heavily modding the lackluster designs here (not to mention probably picking up three or four Helm's Deep sets just to even begin to have a chance of building a 'proper' Helm's Deep).

    So I will watch LotR, but I wouldn't go gung-ho on it right out of the gates.
  • ^^ Interesting fact: Temple of Doom was one of the main contributing factors for the creation of the PG-13 rating. ToD was released in May of 1984 and the PG-13 rating was officially introduced on July 1, 1984. The first movie to be slapped with a PG-13 rating was Red Dawn, released Aug 10, 1984.
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